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Ryan Peniston to beat Holger Rune at +142 at FanDuel
Either player to win the first set 7-6 in Maxime Cressy v Reilly Opelka at -110 at PointsBet
Ilya Ivashka/Jack Draper win parlay at +206 at BetMGM
Jordan Thompson to win ATP Mallorca at +1600 at BetMGM
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If ever a match seemed likely to be serve-dominated, it’s this one.
These two big servers produced 46 aces when they met in Melbourne in January, a match that featured just one break of serve. Opelka claimed it but still lost the match.
As you can tell, there were two tie-breaks that day and another here looks highly likely.
Opelka’s eight grasscourt matches at tour level have seen a 13-game set in seven of them, while four have seen the first set go the distance.
As for Cressy, he’s already played out a match consisting for three breakers this month (against Dominic Stricker in Stuttgart) and something similar here really should not surprise.
It’s hardly the best price in the world but backing the first-set tie-break at -110 does make sense.
Rune played the very first grasscourt match of his career last week in Halle – and lost to Pablo Carreno Busta in straight sets.
The following day, Peniston upset top seed Casper Ruud at Queen’s Club.
Those two results say much about how comfortable each man is on this surface and Peniston simply looks too big at +142 to win this contest.
This will be his fourth straight week on grass – twice the number Rune’s managed in his career.
And having beaten the likes of Jiri Vesely and Adrian Mannarino, as well as Rune, during the current grass swing, the Briton warrants support at the price.
Ivashka has won all four meetings between these two at tour-level, all of them in the last 14 months and three of them by heavy margins.
When they clashed in Den Bosch a couple of weeks ago, Ivashka won 6-4 6-2 and didn’t have to face a break point – the second time that’s happened in those four meetings.
His serve should again trouble the Finn in this one and despite Ruusuvuori having raised confidence with a decent run at Queen’s last week, Ivashka looks to hold the bigger weapons on this surface.
He’s a -150 chance and while that might not appeal to some as a single, it’s worth adding him to a parlay along with Jack Draper (see below).
Draper is another British player enjoying the grasscourt season, as may do, and last week he took out fourth seed Taylor Fritz at Queen’s Club with a fine display.
It was just the latest impressive effort from the rising star, one who looks destined for much higher things.
He’s won four Challenger Tour titles already this season and pushed top-10 star Andrey Rublev all the way when they met in Madrid recently.
Opponent Brooksby disappointed at Queen’s last week, suffering an early loss, and I’d question how effective his defense-based game will be on the slick courts of Eastbourne.
Draper’s big serve and forehand can do some damage here.
Putting him together with Ivashka produces a price around +200 which looks perfectly fair.
No prices are up for this one at time of writing but I’m leaving it in any way, hoping someone can back Daniel when they are available as he looks a potential underdog winner in Mallorca this week.
The Japanese’s best results have always come on a fairly fast court and he’ll get that this week.
He claimed an impressive win over the in-form Denis Kudla (Surbiton runner-up) in the final round of qualifying and now gets a crack at a player who is only just back from a wrist injury which troubled him throughout the claycourt season.
In fairness, Bautista Agut did make the quarter-finals in Halle last week but he only saw off an injured Marton Fucsovics and Tallon Griekspoor in three sets.
Daniel delivered when playing on the slick surfaces in Australia at the start of the year – he won eight matches Down Under, including a straight-sets victory over Andy Murray in the second round of the Australian Open.
He’ll try to attack the more defensive-minded RBA here and may well land the upset.
Stefanos Tsitsipas continues to struggle to get to grips with grass – the fact that he’s taken a wild card into this event tells you he’s not happy with how the past two weeks have gone.
He’s still not won three consecutive matches on this surface in his career and the wait may well go on this week.
Ilya Ivashka looks the sort of player who’ll be able to take advantage of the Greek’s problems and may well be worth a go as an outsider should they meet in what would be Tsitsipas’ opening match of the tournament.
In Eastbourne, Jannik Sinner is another player who is yet to settle on grass, having played only seven matches on it in his career so far. He’s won only two and neither of those victories came at tour level.
He’s got a first-round bye and facing Tommy Paul first up would not be a good thing for the Italian given how the American played at Queen’s last week, knocking out seed Denis Shapovalov before crushing Stan Wawrinka.
Paul came within a point of beating Sinner in Madrid recently and on this surface he may well be able to claim his revenge.
Looking at their respective outright odds, he’s likely to be a decent price too.
This looks a week to be on the outsiders – some of those towards the head of the markets will have one eye on Wimbledon.
Jordan Thompson is a player who has played well on the Challenger circuit in recent weeks, making back-to-back finals on the grass and winning the title in Surbiton.
He qualified in Mallorca with ease, losing only four games across his two matches, and a nice draw has handed him a good chance to go deep at ATP Tour level.
He’s been to the final of an ATP event on grass before (Den Bosch 2019) and made the last eight here 12 months ago.
The Aussie loves the surface and looks worth a try at +1600.
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|ATP Eastbourne and Mallorca Information|
|What||ATP Rothesay International; ATP Mallorca Championships|
|Location||Eastbourne, UK; Mallorca, Spain|
|Time||Sunday, June 19 to Saturday, June 25|
|How to Watch||Tennis Channel|
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Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.More info on Andy Schooler
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