Denis Kudla to win a set against Karen Khachanov at -125 at DraftKings Sportsbook
First-set tie-break in Nicolas Jarry vs Matteo Berrettini at +230 at FanDuel
Maxime Cressy, Coco Vandeweghe & Kaia Kanepi moneyline parlay at +206 at Caesars Sportsbook
Caroline Garcia to win the US Open women’s singles at +1800 at FanDuel
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Home hope Kudla tested Khachanov on a slick hardcourt at this year’s Australian Open and with similar court conditions in New York, he can keep this closer than the odds suggest.
January’s last meeting between the pair was won in four sets by the Russian, although it would have gone the distance had Kudla edged a fourth-set tie-break.
Their other previous clash came in 2018 when Kudla, a player whose serve is often under-rated, won in straight sets in Washington.
Those results bode well for him grabbing at least a set in this rematch – that’s on offer at -125 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Given Khachanov continues to disappoint, the price looks fair enough.
The higher-ranked man has won only three of his last 19 matches in straight sets and I think he’ll do well to improve that statistic on Monday.
Regular readers will have hopefully won money with Jarry in Kitzbuhel recently when I highlighted his propensity for playing a tie-break.
He’s now been involved in one in nine of his last 12 matches, while 12 of his last 23 ‘first sets’ have gone the distance.
OK, the level of opposition is rising here with Berrettini part of the world’s top 20 but his weakness is the return of serve – while sitting at 15th in the world rankings, he’s down in 44th for the season when you look at percentage of service games won. Every other top-20 member is above him in that list.
Jarry’s decent delivery will likely, therefore, prove tough to break. Berrettini failed to achieve the feat in their only previous meeting and it’s also worth noting that Jarry has played a first-set tie-break in all three of his previous US Open main-draw matches.
That looks the obvious bet here, especially with Berrettini also having some decent recent tie-break stats, including playing two in his most recent encounter against Frances Tiafoe in Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago.
Rune is another player this column has mentioned fairly recently – the advice having been to oppose him. The basic stats show why.
Since reaching the quarter-finals of the French Open, the Dane has won just two of his 11 matches and now he’s got an awkward opener and I can’t have him at short a short price.
Overshadowed (just a little) by Emma Raducanu, the experienced Gojowczyk proved a surprise package at last year’s US Open when he made the last 16, making the most of the fast Laykold surface.
The German has always been at his best on a quick court, one which allows him to attack and come forward towards the net.
It’s a tactic the 19-year-old Rune won’t have seen too much of and I believe Gojowczyk will cause him a few problems in this one on Tuesday.
The first round of a Grand Slam tournament is obvious territory for a parlay wager and so here’s one put together using three favorites on the coupon.
Let’s start with Maxime Cressy, another player who likes to serve and volley and these courts should help his attack-minded game. He’s up against Martin Fucsovics, a player who’s had plenty of injury issues of late, retiring twice from matches and also withdrawing from another tournament. Then, looking to get some much-needed wins under his belt, he managed to lose twice in Winston-Salem last week having got into the main draw as a lucky loser. Cressy’s form is much better; he should win.
It’s then over the women’s draw to complete the bet with Kaia Kanepi’s name being added to it. She was the recent runner-up at the warm-up event in Washington, a result which added to some good hardcourt form from earlier in the year. That included a run to the quarter-finals of the Australian Open, featuring wins over Aryna Sabalenka and Angie Kerber, while she also defeated Belinda Bencic in Indian Wells. That trumps virtually anything Tereza Martincova has done this season.
Finally, it’s Coco Vandeweghe who makes a three-legged parlay. She’s fallen a long way since reaching the semis here in 2017 but confidence is on the up following a title success at the recent WTA 125 event in Concord. She’s also up against an opponent who really isn’t at home on this surface. Despite her record stretching back to 2010, Maryna Zanevska is just 2-15 in tour-level hardcourt matches. Expect the big-hitting American to progress.
Both the men’s and women’s draws look wide open at this year’s US Open with question marks surrounding many of those towards the head of the market.
It’s therefore worth taking a chance with the outsiders and my suggestion in the men’s event is to back Taylor Fritz.
He’s got the big serve and forehand combination capable of doing some damage on the slick Laykold, especially given he’s likely to play plenty of matches away from the Arthur Ashe Stadium which tends to play slower than the outside courts.
He made the Wimbledon quarter-finals in favorable conditions and recently beat both Nick Kyrgios and Andrey Rublev in Cincinnati. He’s now won 14 of his last 18 matches and, having landed in what looks the weakest quarter of the draw, he should go well.
In the women’s event, Caroline Garcia was excellent in Cincinnati recently to continue a fine run of form, one which has now brought her three WTA titles in the last two months.
She’s won 26 of her last 30 – form which no-one else can match now that world number one Iga Swiatek’s 37-match win streak is well and truly over.
If Garcia keeps in the groove, +1800 at FanDuel sportsbook could look big come finals weekend.
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Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.More info on Andy Schooler
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