When you sign-up through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more >
Struck a psychological blow by coming back from the dead to beat main US Open title rival Carlos Alcaraz at the big warm-up event in Cincinnati. Has since been handed a near-ideal draw in New York; indeed it’s difficult to see who beats him prior to the final. Also has a point to prove to the locals after he was refused entry to the country and was forced to miss last year’s tournament which was won by Alcaraz.
Alcaraz is the man most expect to come through the top half but this is a loaded section of the draw and it should be remembered that the Spaniard struggled for much of the week in Cincinnati, losing a set in all of his matches prior to the final. The likes of Jannik Sinner and former champion Daniil Medvedev may fancy toppling him but Zverev looks a more tempting price. The German made the final here in 2020 and the semis on his last visit in 2021. Reached the last four in Cincinnati recently and his big serve and powerful baseline game fit the conditions well.
For a big-priced alternative, take a look at former US Open juniors finalist Paul. He resides in the weak-looking third quarter, one led by the recently injured Holger Rune and out-of-form Casper Ruud. Paul beat Alcaraz in Toronto earlier this month and also did so last season during which Zverev and Rafa Nadal were other Paul victims. Outright odds of +13000 look very big but, with Djokovic looming at the semi-final stage, a bet in the quarter market at +700 is probably the better option.
Tsitsipas did win against a weak field in Los Cabos during the current North American hardcourt swing but he struggled again in both Toronto and Cincinnati. And he wouldn’t have been pleased to see big-serving Raonic drawn against his name in round one. The Canadian is on his way back from injury but has shown some positive signs and this could be awkward for the seeded player. Raonic has won both previous meetings with Tsitsipas forcing just one break point (which was saved) in their five sets. The Greek is one of the weakest returners in the top 10 – he’s down at 25th for service games won on the ATP Tour this season – so the potential for problems is clear.
The biggest eyecatcher of the warm-up events, winning in both Washington and Cincinnati. Beat world number one Iga Swiatek at the latter to really lay down a marker for the US Open. The appointment of renowned coach Brad Gilbert to her team appears to have paid immediate dividends and he’s coached Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick to Grand Slam titles in the past. With confidence high, Gauff can claim her maiden major.
If Gauff doesn’t come through the top half of the draw, perhaps Muchova can. She made the final in Cincinnati where she knocked out Aryna Sabalenka and has landed in the second quarter of the draw, alongside Elena Rybakina, who has had shoulder trouble of late. Opponents often struggle to deal with Muchova’s mix-it-up game style and having made the final of this year’s French Open, she’ll be confident of repeating the trick in New York.
Only three players have served more aces on the WTA Tour this season than Samonsova and the speedy court conditions here should suit. Form is good with a semi-final appearance in Washington followed by a final run in Montreal where she was hit hard by the rain-enforced scheduling and was exhausted by the time of her defeat to Jessica Pegula. The pair could meet again in New York (in the last 16) and while Pegula would start a worthy favorite, Samsonova would surely put up a better showing and so she’s a tempting price.
Both of these players have struggled with injury this season but Badosa looks very short given she’s not played a match since Wimbledon. While wins have been thin on the ground since Williams’ comeback from injury, she did defeat top-20 star Veronika Kudermetova in Cincinnati to show what she is still capable of at the age of 43. This will be Tuesday night’s showpiece on Arthur Ashe Stadium where the fans will be right behind Williams, knowing it could be her last-ever match at the Open. This one looks worth rolling the dice on.
Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.More info on Andy Schooler
© Rebel Penguin ApS 2023 (a subsidiary of Gaming Innovation Group Inc.)
We support responsible gambling. 21+ Only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.
WSN.com is run by iGaming Cloud Inc (a Gaming Innovation Group Subsidiary) and is registered with the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement (DGE) under affiliate vendor ID 89744, with the Indiana Gaming Commission (IGC) under certificate of registration number SWR-000148, approved by the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board as a gaming service provider, under certificate registration number 117656-1, possesses a Vendor Minor sports betting license from the Colorado Limited Gaming Control Commission (account number 94414163), granted a vendor registration number VR007603-20-001 by the Michigan Gaming Control Board, an interim Sports Wagering Supplier license, under license number SWS 066, issued by the West Virginia Lottery Commission, a sports betting vendor registration, under registration number #100400, issued by the Director of Gaming Licensing and Investigations of the Virginia Lottery to operate in the State of Virginia, and a Vendor Registration issued by the Sports Wagering Committee of the Tennessee Education Lottery Corporation.
Advertising disclosure: WSN contains links to online retailers on its website. When people click on our affiliate links and make purchases, WSN earns a commission from our partners, including ESPN and various sportsbooks.