US Open Predictions, Betting Odds, Picks
- Majchrzak can upset rising star
- A Karlovic tie-break beckons
- Basilashvili has underdog potential
- Pouille-Ramos clash should go long
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US Open Picks
Kamil Majchrzak to beat Emil Ruusuvuori at +180 at PointsBet Sportsbook
First-set tie-break in Andrey Rublev v Ivo Karlovic at +300 at bet365
Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Sebastian Korda at +210 at BetMGM
Over 37.5 games in Lucas Pouille v Albert Ramos-Vinolas at -110 at PointsBet
Daniil Medvedev to win the US Open at +400 at Caesars Sportsbook
How to Watch the US Open
|US Open Tennis Information|
|Location||Flushing Meadows, New York, NY, USA|
|Time||Monday, August 30 to Sunday, September 12|
|How to Watch||Tennis Channel & DirecTV|
Andrey Rublev vs Ivo Karlovic
Two big serves will be in evidence in this match and there aren’t many bigger than Karlovic’s.
The Croat came through qualifying, dropping his serve just twice in three matches. He also produced no fewer than 66 aces.
With Rublev no slouch on the serve speed gun and the Laykold courts of Flushing Meadows playing even faster than last year, a first-set tie-break looks overpriced at +300.
Rublev is a player who has struggled against John Isner’s huge serve – he trails 3-0 in their head-to-head. This will be his first meeting with Karlovic but the veteran sends the ball down from a similar trajectory and also regularly above 140mph.
Yes, Karlovic doesn’t have the same forehand as Isner but I can the seeded Russian having a few problems on return, certainly early on, and so the tie-break bet looks a good one to back.
Kamil Majchrzak vs Emil Ruusuvuori
An underdog with potential on Monday’s order of play is Majchrzak, who is a player who enjoys the quick conditions.
He’s shown just that already in New York by winning three qualifying matches and holding serve throughout them all.
Ruusuvuori did make the semi-finals at last week’s ATP Tour event, the Winston-Salem Open, but that match was played on Friday night so he’s had less than 48 hours in New York to get used to the different courts and conditions.
That’s not exactly ideal and certainly contrasts with his opponent who is fully bedded in at Flushing Meadows.
At +180, the Polish outsider looks worth chancing.
Lucas Pouille vs Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Neither of these players has been at his best level for a while and I can see this being a bit of a grind.
They’ve played each other on five previous occasions with four of those matches going to a final set, including one at a Grand Slam event.
Pouille, the outsider, has struggled to get back to the top-10 level he was at before an elbow injury but he showed some good signs in Winston-Salem last week where he won three matches as he came through qualifying and beat Feliciano Lopez in the main draw.
Ramos-Vinolas prefers the claycourts and would almost certainly be the underdog had Pouille shown a bit more form in recent months.
The Spaniard has lost 12 of his last 15 matches on all surfaces and so confidence won’t exactly be high.
Perhaps someone will take the bull by the horns but I’d envisage a match of fluctuating fortunes and if that’s the case then this could well go long.
Over 37.5 games looks a solid call.
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Sebastian Korda
For a longer shot on Tuesday, I’m going to try Basilashvili.
His aggressive, flat hitting won’t give Korda a lot of time to work with and he certainly has the potential to trouble the American, who is likely to have plenty of pressure heaped upon him.
The son of former Australian Open champion Petr, Korda is regarded as the future of men’s tennis in the US and he’ll be getting plenty of attention in New York, even though he’s yet to win a match at his home Grand Slam.
He made the last 16 at Wimbledon but has only beaten Laslo Djere and Vasek Pospisil – two very out-of-form players – since moving onto the North American hardcourts.
Basilashvili beat Alex de Minaur in Toronto before losing a tight tussle with Hubert Hurkacz in three sets.
He can blow a bit hot and cold but he should be up for this one at a venue where he’s made the last 16 in the past so I’ll happily play at +200 or above.
Best Outright Pick
Novak Djokovic is considered more likely than not – at least by the sportsbooks – to win the US Open and complete the calendar-year Grand Slam.
He would be the first man since Rod Laver in 1969 to do so but that history chase brings with it plenty of pressure, as the Serb admitted at his pre-tournament press conference.
Djokovic spoke with great confidence but the fact is he hasn’t played since the Olympics in Tokyo which he left nursing a shoulder injury.
We simply don’t know how well he’s recovered and he has to be opposed at the price.
I like the chances of the man who comes next in the market, Daniil Medvedev.
The +400 shot won the warm-up event in Montreal and looked set to back that up with victory in Cincinnati until he collided with a TV camera in his semi-final and duly slumped.
Medvedev made the final in New York in 2019 and was also a runner-up at this year’s Australian Open.
Now world number two, he’s knocking on the door and even if he has to face Djokovic in the final he will do so knowing he’s won three of their last five meetings.
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Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.