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Joao Sousa to beat Sebastian Baez at +215 at PointsBet
Jiri Lehecka to beat Holger Rune at +134 at PointsBet
Egor Gerasimov to beat John Millman at -138 at bet365
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win the Estoril Open at +600 at BetMGM
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At the north of +200, Sousa has to be worth a shot here.
The home hope is a former champion in Estoril (2018) and while he’s hardly been in sparkling form this season, he’s beaten a couple of decent clay courters in Federico Delbonis and Carlos Taberner in recent weeks.
Baez is a player on the rise, no doubt, and he certainly has the tools to win this match.
However, the vast majority of his tennis has been played in South America and he has very little experience in Europe.
He’s 0-2 in main draws since hitting the European clay this season and I can’t have him as such a short-priced favorite for this match, one which will see plenty of support for his opponent.
Lecheka is a player who’s been on the radar for a while and he’s been quietly picking off some wins this season, his first on the main tour.
The Czech grabbed the headlines with his run to the semi-finals of Rotterdam but he’s also been beating some decent opponents in qualifying, Monte Carlo being a good example where top-100 players Benjamin Bonzi and Henri Laaksonen were seen off.
Last week he qualified again in Belgrade before his run was ended by eventual champion Andrey Rublev in the last 16, although not before Lehecka had won the opening set.
That is the sort of display which breeds confidence and he duly qualified in Munich, notching a decent win over Alejandro Tabilo in the final round. He’ll also head into this one knowing he won the pair’s only previous match (admittedly on indoor hard).
Rune continues to be priced up on his reputation as a ‘next big thing’ but frankly his climb up the rankings has rather stuttered now he’s competing regularly at tour-level.
Lehecka is the pick here at +134.
Gerasimov was an eyecatcher in Munich qualifying, beating Francisco Cerundolo and Thiago Monteiro.
The Belarusian’s decent first serve was winning him plenty of points (75% across his two matches at the weekend) which shouldn’t come as a great surprise given the altitude of around 500m which gives the ball that extra fizz through the air.
Both matches were won in straight sets with three of the four sets having 6-1 scorelines. That is impressive.
Millman is a player who tends to get plenty back but that prove harder than usual in these conditions and after his weekend exploits, Gerasimov looks worth a wager at -138.
Once more, the top four seeds get byes in both Estoril and Munich so who could be vulnerable?
Well, Felix Auger-Aliassime, who leads the field in Estoril, has won just three of his last nine matches.
One of his victories was a narrow three-set success over Carlos Taberner last week in Barcelona and if they meet again the Spaniard, who thrashed Sebastian Korda at the same event, is likely to go off a decent outsider again and could be worth siding with in some capacity.
Marin Cilic could also find things awkward against either Joao Sousa or Sebastian Baez.
In Munich, second seed Casper Ruud hasn’t hit the heights expected of him on the European clay and so an opening clash with Alex Molcan has the potential for problems.
Molcan recently made the final at a similar altitude in Marrakech, beating Auger-Aliassime, Botic van de Zandschulp and Laslo Djere.
He’s another underdog who could be worth following, most realistically on the handicap.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina was excellent during his run to the Monte Carlo Masters final and will be hard to beat in Estoril if he picks up where he left off.
The Spaniard beat world number one Novak Djokovic in Monaco and having rested up last week should be raring to go again.
He looks well drawn and with confidence flowing through the veins, he looks worthy of support at +600.
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|ATP Munich & Estoril Information|
|What||ATP BMW Open; ATP Millennium Estoril Open|
|Location||Munich, Germany; Estoril, Portugal|
|Time||Monday April 25 to Sunday May 1|
|How to Watch||Tennis Channel|
Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.More info on Andy Schooler
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