ATP Munich & Estoril Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks

ATP Munich & Estoril

  • Underdog Simon worth backing
  • Double up Spanish pair
  • Ruud not to back Casper

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ATP Munich and Estoril Picks

Gilles Simon to beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert at +123 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Carlos Alcaraz and Pedro Martinez both to win at +183 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Casper Ruud to win the BMW Open at +550 at DraftKings Sportsbook

How to Watch ATP Munich and Estoril

ATP Munich and Estoril Information
What ATP BMW Open and ATP Millennium Estoril Open
Where Munich, Germany; Estoril, Portugal
When Monday, April 26 to Sunday, May 2
How to Watch Tennis Channel

Gilles Simon vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert

Player Odds
Gilles Simon +118
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Pierre-Hugues Herber -148
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It’s difficult to be confident about many of the first-round underdogs this week but the one I like the look of the most is veteran Gilles Simon in Estoril.

He’s been to the quarter-finals here before and his more patient game is better suited to clay than the attack-minded Herbert’s.

Admittedly Simon has struggled so far this season but I think the market may be leaning too heavily on that fact.

It was notable that when they moved onto the clay he immediately enjoyed a decent win over Stefano Travaglia, while last week’s tight loss to Pablo Andujar in Barcelona was no disgrace.

The recent surface switch hasn’t helped Herbert, who had been going well in faster conditions.

He managed to lose to Bernard Tomic in Monte Carlo qualifying – quite a feat these days – and last week was well beaten by David Goffin in Barcelona.

With the head-to-head record favouring neither player (level 1-1), I’m not convinced the layers have the right favourite here.

Marin Cilic vs Carlos Alcaraz

Player Odds
Marin Cilic +160
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Carlos Alcaraz -200
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Youngster Alcaraz is a man going places and he should be too good for the fading Cilic on this surface.

Alcaraz made his first ATP semi-final in Marbella recently where he claimed an impressive scalp in Casper Ruud so he’s in good nick on his favourite surface.

As for Cilic, he’d rather be on a faster court and his recent loss to David Goffin in Monte Carlo was his fourth first-round loss of the season.

With Alcaraz’s coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero, having previously faced Cilic on the court, the teenager should also have some useful inside info on his side.

Alexander Bublik vs Pedro Martinez

Player Odds
Alexander Bublik -105
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Pedro Martinez -120
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Last week Bublik was ranting and raving on the court about how he despises playing on clay so facing a dirt specialist first up in Estoril is hardly ideal for the seeded Kazakh.

Martinez is already well bedded in at the Estoril venue having notched up two qualifying wins, putting aside injury concerns that emerged in Monte Carlo.

A fully-fit Martinez should be able to work the ball around, as long as he gets some sort of reading on Bublik’s serve.

He made the third round as a qualifier at Roland Garros last season and finished the year with two Challenger finals on the clay.

Best Outright Pick – Munich

Casper Ruud enjoyed his week in Monte Carlo earlier this month, beating three top-20 players en route to the semi-finals.

Having also made the last four in Rome towards the end of last season, the Norwegian should be capable of mounting a title challenge in a much weaker field in Munich this week.

Altitude will be a factor this week but Ruud should be OK with that given he made the final in Santiago last year and the semis in Kitzbuhel in 2019.

That aspect may prove tough for one of his title rivals, Aslan Karatsev, to handle. He arrives straight from Belgrade where his mental and physical efforts were huge across the weekend – the Russian beat Novak Djokovic on Saturday and lost 7-6 in the third in Sunday’s final to Matteo Berrettini, a total of almost six hours on court.

The other man Ruud may have to worry about is two-time winner Alex Zverev. However, he’s admitted an elbow problem is still affecting his serve so I’m happy to take on the favourite and back Ruud at +550.

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Andy Schooler

Expert on Tennis

Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.