UFC Fight Night Dern vs Rodriguez Odds, Predictions, Picks

Written by: Ryan Bristlon
Updated October 14, 2022
12 min read
  • Top-10 women’s strawweight contenders Mackenzie Dern and Marina Rodriguez main event UFC Fight Night this Saturday night, with the winner likely to move up in to title contention
  • Former flyweight title challenger Tim Elliot goes tow-to-toe with rising star Matheus Nicolau
  • A middleweight clash between Phil Hawes and Deron Winn, originally scheduled for July, has been rescheduled and will kick off the main card

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez

The odds for this match are provided by Caesars Sportsbook. Click on the odds below to head to Caesars and place a bet.

Fighter Odds
Mackenzie Dern -170
Marina Rodriguez +145
Fighter Odds
Randy Brown -230
Jared Gooden +190
Fighter Odds
Tim Elliott +160
Matheus Nicolau -190
Fighter Odds
Sabina Mazo -170
Mariya Agapova +145
Fighter Odds
Phil Hawes -330
Deron Winn +260

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Rodriguez – Picks & Predictions

Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez – Women’s strawweight division

Our Pick: Marina Rodriguez (+145)

Randy Brown vs. Jared Gooden – Welterweight division

Our Pick: Jared Gooden (+190)

Tim Elliott vs. Matheus Nicolau – Flyweight division

Our Pick: Matheus Nicolau (-190)

Sabina Mazo vs. Mariya Agapova – Women’s flyweight division

Our Pick: Sabina Mazo (-170)

Phil Hawes v. Deron Winn – Middleweight division

Our Pick: Phil Hawes (-330)

How We Rate
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UFC Fight Night Dern vs Rodriguez

Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez – Women’s strawweight division

Mackenzie Dern TALE OF THE TAPE Marina Rodriguez
28 Age 34
5 ft. 4 in. Height 5 ft. 6 in.
63 in. Reach 65 in.
11-1 Record 14-1-2

Mackenzie Dern

One of the most decorated grapplers in UFC history, Mackenzie Dern set her sights on mixed martial arts in 2016 and, with the exception of one professional loss, has seen nothing but success in her career.

After accumulating a record of 5-0 with promotions LFA and Invicta FC, Mackenzie Dern signed with the UFC in 2018.

She got off to a quick start with the promotion, fighting twice in 2018 and winning both bouts. She debuted against Ashley Yoder at UFC 222 and earned the split-decision. She followed that performance with a first-round submission over Amanda Cooper at UFC 224.

Dern only fought once in 2019, taking on Amanda Ribas. Dern was defeated by Ribas via unanimous decision and the loss still stands as the only blemish on her record. The fight was her first fight back after having a baby.

Since the Ribas loss, Dern has gone on to win four-straight.

She fought three times in 2020, submitting both Hannah Cifers and Randa Markos before earning a unanimous decision win over Virna Jandiroba.

Her most recent fight came this past April when she took on Nina Nunes, whom she submitted in the first round.

Dern earned three performance of the night bonuses during that four-fight streak.

Born in Arizona, Dern has spent time with several fighting camps over the years and currently finds herself working with RVCA with coach Jason Parillo.

She has been competing in MMA since 2016, having spent her life before that amassing a bounty of grappling gold medals.

Dern holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Wellington Dias and has over 20 jiu-jitsu gold medals including three World Cup golds and two World Championship golds.

She is currently ranked as the fourth-best women’s strawweight in the division and the 12th-best pound-for-pound women’s fighter on the UFC roster.

Dern is six years younger than her upcoming opponent.

Marina Rodriguez

Like her opponent, Marina Rodriguez has only one blemish on her professional MMA record (with the exception of two draws), and she looks to keep it that way following her performance Saturday night.

Signing with the UFC in 2018 following a win on the Contender Series, Rodriguez has lost only once for the promotion.

She fought to a draw with Randa Markos in her UFC debut before winning two straight over Jessica Aguilar and Tecia Torres.

Following another draw, this time against Cynthia Calvillo, Rodrigue would suffer the first (and only) loss of her career – coming against Carla Esparza last summer. She lost the bout via close split-decision.

Rodriguez has since rebounded from the loss, earning a TKO win and performance bonus over Amanda Ribas – the only woman with a win over Mackenzie Dern.

It was in her most recent fight in which Marina Rodriguez made the choice to move down in weight to the 115-pound division to take on Michelle Waterson this past May. Rodriguez won her strawweight debut via unanimous decision.

Born in Brazil, Rodriguez works with Thai Brasil as well as with the AS Team. She works under coaches Alexandre Souza and Marcio Malko – the former of which she holds a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under.

She also holds a dark blue/black tip belt in muay thai.

Fighting since 2015, Marina Rodriguez is currently ranked as the sixth-best strawweight in the division.

She will hold a two-inch advantage in both height and reach over Dern this Saturday night.

Randy Brown vs. Jared Gooden – Welterweight division

Randy Brown TALE OF THE TAPE Jared Gooden
31 Age 27
6 ft. 3 in. Height 6 ft.
78 in. Reach 77 in.
13-4 Record 18-6

Randy “Rude Boy” Brown

A member of the UFC roster since 2016, Randy Brown has a lot of talent but always seems to fall short when he is on the cusp of cracking into the top-ten of the welterweight division.

Following two wins in a row in 2016, Brown was defeated by top-contender Belal Muhammad. Brown bounced back with a win over Mickey Gall but would then drop his next fight to Niko Price.

Brown would then put another winning streak together, earning a TKO over Bryan Barberena and then submitting Warlley Alves, with both of those bouts coming in 2019.

However, he would then lose to another top-star in Vicente Luque – this time via knockout in 2020.

Brown has fought once in 2021 thus far, earning an impressive first-round submission win over fan-favorite Alex Oliveira at UFC 261 this past April.

Born in Massachusetts, Brown now lives and trains out of New York with the Budokan Martial Arts Academy.

Competing since 2010, Randy Brown currently holds the rank of purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and he is a former Ring of Combat welterweight champion.

He will stand three-inches taller than his opponent this Saturday and will also enjoy a one-inch reach advantage.

Jared “Nite Train” Gooden

Jared Gooden entered the UFC riding a three-fight winning streak. However, his time with the company didn’t get off to the start he was looking for.

Debuting in 2020 against Alan Jouban at UFC 255, Gooden was ultimately defeated via unanimous decision.

His next bout came at UFC 260 where he took on Abubakar Nurmagomedov. Unfortunately for Gooden, he would once again be on the losing end of a judges’ decision.

Gooden’s most recent fight, which took place this past July, had a different outcome. He took on Niklas Stolze and won the bout via first-round KO – earning him his first UFC win.

Born in Alabama, Jared Gooden trains in Atlanta with the X3 Sports team. He has been competing as a mixed martial artist since 2015 and he is a former NFC welterweight champion.

He is four year younger than Randy Brown.

Tim Elliott vs. Matheus Nicolau – Flyweight division

Tim Elliott TALE OF THE TAPE Matheus Nicolau
34 Age 28
5 ft. 7 in. Height 5 ft. 6 in.
66 in. Reach 66 in.
17-11-1 Record 16-2-1

Tim Elliott

Tim Elliott’s first run in the UFC wasn’t anything memorable. After winning his first two fights for the promotion, Elliott went on a four-fight skid that saw him get cut from the UFC roster in 2015.

Elliott spent the next few years on the independent circuit before being invited to participate on a season of the Ultimate Fighter – a season in which the winner would be granted a shot at flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson.

And wouldn’t you know it, Tim Elliott actually won! Although he lost his title fight to Johnson via unanimous decision in 2016, Elliott has remained on the UFC’s payroll ever since, amassing a record of 4-5 during his second tenure with the promotion.

After losing three fights in a row to top contenders, Elliott’s time with the UFC did seem like it would once again come to an end. However Elliott would bounce back, earning unanimous decision wins in both of his last two fights.

He defeated Ryan Benoit last summer and beat Jordan Espinosa earlier this year at UFC 259.

An MMA veteran of more than ten years, Elliott boasts NCAA division two wrestling credentials and holds a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

He splits his time training with both Xtreme Couture as well as with the Glory MMA and Fitness team. He is a former Titan FC flyweight champion.

Despite having a one-inch advantage in height, Elliott will have a reach equal to his opponent this Saturday.

Matheus Nicolau

Like his opponent, Matheus Nicolau is currently enjoying a UFC winning streak, having won his last three fights in a row.

Following a loss to Dustin Ortiz in 2018, Nicolau has rebounded with a submission win over Alan Gabriel in 2019 and a unanimous decision win over Felipe Efrain – also in 2019.

His most recent bout took place this past March, where Nicolau made his return to the flyweight division, having spent his last two fights at 135-pounds.

Nicolau took on Manel Kape and, although  a close fight, he was awarded the split-decision victory.

Born in Brazil, the 28-year-old Nicolau trains with Jackson’s MMA and Yee MMA and has been competing in the sport of mixed martial arts since 2010.

Holding a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Matheus Nicolau is currently ranked just outside the top-ten as the 11th best flyweight in the division.

Sabina Mazo vs. Mariya Agapova – Women’s flyweight division

Sabina Mazo TALE OF THE TAPE Mariya Agapova
24 Age 24
5 ft. 7 in. Height 5 ft. 6 in.
68 in. Reach 68.5 in.
9-2 Record 9-2

Sabina “Colombian Queen” Mazo

Saturday night will mark Sabina Mazo’s sixth UFC appearance, for whom she has a promotional record of 4-2 since signing in 2019.

After losing her UFC debut to Maryna Moroz, Mazo racked up three wins in a row that included a submission win over Justine Kish last September.

Her most recent bout took place this past February where she took on Alexis Davis. Unfortunately for Mazo, her winning streak was snapped when Davis was awarded with the unanimous decision.

Born in Colombia, Sabina Mazo trains in California with Kings MMA.

Although unranked within the UFC flyweight division, Mazo is a former LFA women’s flyweight champion. She has been competing in MMA since 2015.

She will enter the octagon Saturday night with a one-inch height advantage.

Mariya Agapova

Mariya Agapova was undefeated as a professional, with a record of 6-0, when she appeared on the Contender Series in 2019. However, she lost her bout on the show via unanimous decision to Tracy Cortez.

Following the loss, Agapova fought twice for Invicta FC, defeating Alexa Conners by first-round submission and Marilia Santos via first-round TKO.

She made her UFC debut last June and took on Hannah Cifers. Agapova won the bout via first-round submission and was awarded a performance of the night bonus.

Agapova most recently fought just two months after her win over Cifers last August. She took on Shana Dobson and was defeated via second-round TKO. She has yet to fight in 2021.

Born in Kazakhstan, Agapova fights out of her home country and trains with American Top Team. She has been active in mixed martial arts since 2014.

She will have a half-inch reach advantage over her opponent.

Phil Hawes vs. Deron Winn – Middleweight division

Phil Hawes TALE OF THE TAPE Deron Winn
32 Age 32
5 ft. 11 in. Height 5 ft. 6 in.
77 in. Reach 70 in.
11-2 Record 7-2

Phil “Megatron” Hawes

Phil Hawes was riding a three-fight professional winning streak when he appeared on the Contender Series last September.

Following a first-round TKO on the show, Hawes made his UFC debut only a month later at UFC 254, defeating Jacob Malkoun by knockout in just 18-seconds.

Hawes has fought twice in 2021 and still remains undefeated in the UFC. He defeated Nassourdine Imavov by majority decision in February and followed that performance with a unanimous decision victory over Kyle Daukaus this past May.

The 32-year-old American has trained with the likes of Jackson-Wink MMA, the BlackZilians, and Tiger Schulmann but now spends his time training with Sanford MMA.

Hawes holds a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and boasts NJCAA division one wrestling credentials. He has been fighting professionally since 2014.

He will stand significantly taller than his opponent Saturday night and will boast a seven-inch reach advantage.

His current professional winning streak sits at seven straight.

Deron Winn

Originally scheduled to fight Phil Hawes this past summer, Deron Winn was forced to pull out of the contest due to a chest injury. No healed, Winn is ready to take on Hawes this Saturday night.

Winn signed with the UFC in 2019 as an undefeated 6-0 fighter and won his debut fight with the promotion against Eric Spicely via unanimous decision.

He then hit a bit of a skid, losing to Darren Stewart by split-decision in late 2019 in a fight that Winn missed weight for.

He then lost to Gerald Meerschaert via submission in 2020 and tested positive for amphetamines after the fight.

Winn won his most recent bout, a unanimous decision over Antonio Arroyo last December, but he missed weight yet again. Although he is one of the shortest fighters in the division, Winn has weighed in over the 185-pound middleweight limit for two of his four UFC performances.

The American fighter is mostly known for his wrestling abilities, having been awarded a bronze medal at the 2014 Pan American Wrestling Championships. He also holds NAIA wrestling credentials.

Born in Missouri, Winn trains out of California with the American Kickboxing Academy with former MMA champions such as Daniel Cormier, Cain Velasquez, and Khabib Nurmagomedov and he has been competing in mixed martial arts since 2017.

Come Saturday night, Winn will stand five-inches shorter than his opponent and will be at a reach disadvantage of seven-inches.

At +260, he is the largest betting underdog on the main card.

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Ryan Bristlon

Sports Betting Analyst

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Ryan Bristlon is a Canadian writer currently residing in Hamilton, Ontario. He studied print and broadcast journalism at Humber College and has been a lifelong fan of hockey, the NHL in general, and UFC.
Nationality: Canadian
Education: Print and Broadcast Journalism
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