The WNBA returns after taking Thursday off with a pair of contests tonight: the Chicago Sky vs. Atlanta Dream and the Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces. If you’re thinking these sound like great games to bet on WNBA Player Props, I couldn’t agree more.
We’ve got star power in each game. Will the stars live up to their billing and produce, or will they underperform? How you answer that question will impact how you approach tonight’s WNBA games, and specifically, the player props.
After watching Reese dominate the boards last season and start this year off with 17 boards against Indiana, recommending the UNDER for an Angel Reese rebound prop is something I never thought I’d do. But the results do not lie.
She’s had more than 11.5 rebounds just once in her last four games. Now, she’s still one of the best rebounders in the league, but Atlanta is actually the top rebounding team in the league (38.3 per game) and the stingiest (opponents average 31.8 rebounds per game).
Gray leads the Dream in scoring with 20+ points per game so far this season, and she doesn’t even take the most shots (13 per game; Rhyne Howard averages 15.6). But she makes half of her shots (50.4%) and 42.3% from the three-point range.
Teams are averaging 68.3 attempts per game against the Sky and making 43.6% of them. Gray has scored 17.5+ points in five of her last six games. Against the Chicago defense, as long as Gray takes her shots (11-15), she’ll go OVER 17.5 for the game.
This one is contingent on one thing—A’ja Wilson not playing (she left the game vs. Golden State with a head injury). She is officially listed as a game-time decision, and head coach Becky Hammon has said Wilson is doubtful.
If Wilson is out, the offense will flow through Young much like it did against the Valkyries. She will probably not go off for 35 points again, but against a poor Dallas defense, she’ll be good for 20+ points.
I wanted to go with the OVER for Loyd here. Assuming Wilson misses the game, that will mean more shot opportunities for Loyd. Maybe, with the ball in her hands more, she can break out of her funk against the lackluster Wings defense (and she might).
Yes, I expect she’ll have a better game against the Wings. However, ‘better’ means scoring 10-1 points and pulling down 7-9 rebounds. But 15.5+ points? Eh…maybe, but at +100, the UNDER is the better bet.
It would be really easy to point at her 35-point explosion the other night and make a case for the OVER. While games like that may become the norm for Bueckers one day, from what we’ve seen of her, it’s a little soon to make that kind of leap.
But it would make for a heck of a story, right? A more likely outcome is that Becky Hammon’s criticism of her team’s effort vs. Golden State lights a fire under them. Wilson or not, they have an incredible game against the Wings and remind people just how good they can be.
Consequently, they keep Bueckers in check, and she has a relatively quiet night.
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