FIFA World Cup 2026 Group Odds and Predictions

2026 World Cup Group Stage: Favorites and Underdogs

Which teams are expected to progress to the knockout phase, and which sides will have to upset the odds to do so? Here is our analysis of all 12 World Cup 2026 groups. All odds below are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Get more info in our full FanDuel Sportsbook review.

World Cup - Group A

⚽ Group A Teams: Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czechia

Mexico has already wrapped up top spot in Group A, which means it will stay in Mexico City for the round of 32. The co-host faces Czechia on matchday three, with the European nation needing a win to progress. The other match coming up is South Africa vs South Korea, with the former the favorite to win.

• Key Matchup -  South Africa vs South Korea: If Mexico beat Czechia as expected, the winner of this match will finish second in Group A.

• Predicted to Advance: Mexico and South Korea.

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World Cup - Group B

⚽ Group B Teams: Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland. 

The World Cup group B odds now have Canada down as favorite after its first ever victory at the tournament, a 6-0 triumph over nine-men Qatar on matchday two. A draw against Switzerland would be enough to win the group, whereas the Swiss need to collect all three points. Bosnia & Herzegovina are favored for third over Qatar.

• Key Matchup - Switzerland vs Canada: This will decide which team finishes top of the group, which would bring an advantage in the knockout phase.

• Predicted to Advance: Canada and Switzerland.

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World Cup - Group C

⚽ Group C Teams: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland.

Haiti became the first team to be guaranteed a fourth-place finish in one of the FIFA World Cup groups 2026 after its 3-0 defeat by Brazil. The Selecao and Morocco are battling it out to win the group (they are currently separated on goal difference), with Scotland still in contention for a top-two berth.

• Key Matchup - Scotland vs Brazil: Scotland needs at least a point to guarantee a place in the round of 32, while Brazil is fighting for top spot in the group.

• Predicted to Advance: Brazil and Morocco.

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World Cup - Group D

⚽ Group D Teams: USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkey.

Of all 12 World Cup groups 2026, this one looked like the closest ahead of the tournament. However, the USMNT has wrapped up top spot with one match to spare after its victories over Australia and Paraguay. Both those sides beat Turkey, which has been eliminated after two fixtures.

• Key Matchup - Paraguay vs Australia: Australia will finish second in Group D with a win or a tie, while Paraguay will be runners-up if it wins.

• Predicted to Advance: USA and Australia.

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World Cup - Group E

⚽ Group E Teams: Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao.

Germany is already the confirmed winner of the World Cup group standings in this section. It thrashed Curacao 7-1 on matchday one, before scoring a last-gasp winner against Ivory Coast on matchday two. The Ivorians need a point against Curacao to advance in second place, while Ecuador must beat Germany to stand a chance of progression.

• Key Matchup - Ecuador vs Germany: Germany is guaranteed to finish top no matter what happens, but Ecuador needs a win to go through.

• Predicted to Advance: Germany and Ivory Coast.

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World Cup - Group F

⚽ Group F Teams: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia.

The Netherlands and Japan are each on four points after two games, with Sweden one behind the pair. Tunisia, which has lost both matches to date, has been eliminated already. Top spot could be decided by the goal difference between Japan and the Netherlands, although Sweden can still finish first too.

• Key Matchup - Japan vs Sweden: Japan will finish in the top two with a draw, which would also send Sweden through in third place.

• Predicted to Advance: Netherlands and Japan.

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World Cup - Group G

⚽ Group G Teams: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand. 

All 12 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup groups contained an obvious favorite, and Belgium was cast in that role here. But draws with Egypt and Iran mean it must beat New Zealand on matchday three to guarantee a place in the last 32. Egypt is best placed to win the group, with New Zealand the outsider.

• Key Matchup - New Zealand vs Belgium: The winner of this game will go through to the round of 32, while a tie would probably be enough for Belgium.

• Predicted to Advance: Egypt and Belgium.

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World Cup - Group H

⚽ Group H Teams: Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay.

Spain won Euro 2024 in impressive fashion and many of the best online sportsbooks rate it as the favorite to lift the trophy in North America. It is already through with four points, but Cape Verde and Uruguay (two points each) still have work to do, as does Saudi Arabia in last place with a point to its name.

• Key Matchup - Uruguay vs Spain: Spain, the European champion, will top the group with a win, while Uruguay must at least tie to go through.

• Predicted to Advance: Spain and Uruguay.

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World Cup - Group I

⚽ Group I Teams: France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway.

France is the heavyweight team in Group I and it is already through after winning its first two matches. Norway is also sitting on six points and will play in the round of 32. Senegal needs to beat Iraq to stand a chance of qualifying for the next round, while Iraq could go through with a victory too.

• Key Matchup - Norway vs France: Erling Haaland’s Norway will go head-to-head with Kylian Mbappe’s France on matchday three in Group I.

• Predicted to Advance: France and Norway.

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World Cup - Group J

⚽ Group J Teams: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan.

Argentina is seeking to become only the third nation (after Italy in 1930 and 1934, and Brazil in 1958 and 1962) to win back-to-back World Cups following its triumph in 2022. It has already won Group J ahead of Austria and Algeria, whose head-to-head clash on matchday three will determine which of them finishes second.

• Key Matchup - Algeria vs Austria: The winner of this clash in Kansas City will join Argentina in the round of 32, although a draw would suit both sides.

• Predicted to Advance: Argentina and Austria.

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World Cup - Group K

⚽ Group K Teams: Portugal, DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia. 

Portugal flattered to deceive in its first match of the World Cup, but it hit back with a 5-0 thrashing of Uzbekistan last time out. However, Colombia currently tops the group after beating both the Uzbeks and DR Congo. The Congolese could still go through in second or third place, but Uzbekistan is now a huge outsider.

• Key Matchup - Colombia vs Portugal: This will be a first major test for Portugal, with Colombia more than capable of giving it a game.

• Predicted to Advance: Portugal and Colombia.

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World Cup - Group L

⚽ Group L Teams: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama. 

This is one of the groups World Cup 2026 that contains two European teams in England and Croatia. The Three Lions are top of the table on four points, level with Ghana. Croatia is one behind on three, while Panama has already been knocked out after losing both their matches up to now.

• Key Matchup - Croatia vs Ghana: The winner of this match will finish in the top two, with Ghana a point ahead as things stand.

• Predicted to Advance: England and Croatia.

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The World Cup 2026 Dark Horses

Every World Cup features at least one surprise package. Here are four World Cup sleepers who will likely punch above their weight.

• Japan: Japan caught the eye four years ago, beating both Spain and Germany in the group stage. The Samurai Blue is technically talented and could go far.

• Mexico: Playing on home turf is a huge advantage for Mexico. This is not its best ever squad, but El Tri hopes that its fans roar them on to success. 

• Ivory Coast: After beating Ecuador on matchday one, Ivory Coast is well positioned to reach the last 32. It could upset the odds this summer.

• Norway: With Erling Haaland smashing in the goals for fun, Norway has a chance of going far at this tournament after winning its first two games.

Understanding the New 2026 Group Stage Format

The expansion of the World Cup has forced FIFA to tinker with the format. There will be 12 groups of four at the upcoming edition, with the eight best third-place finishers advancing to the round of 32 alongside the group winners and runners-up.

This new structure changes how teams approach the group stage. Goal differential and avoiding heavy defeats will be critical for teams fighting for those third-place spots. It also introduces an entirely new knockout phase, meaning the eventual champions will need to navigate an eight-game schedule. For a complete breakdown of how the knockout pathways work, check out our in-depth guide on the World Cup 48 team bracket.

The Favorites: Who is Most Likely to Win the 2026 World Cup? 

The following four teams are the favourites to win the 2026 World Cup in North America.

• France: Les Bleus possesses unmatched depth, experience, and prime-age superstar talent. It was the winner in 2018 and runner-up four years ago.

• Spain: Spain is the reigning European champion and it has a defined style of play which should be a good fit for the heat of North America.

• Brazil: Brazil’s attacking firepower is up there with the best, and the five-time champion is not short of motivation having now gone 22 years without winning the World Cup.

• England: Thomas Tuchel is an elite coach and England does not lack quality. It has steadily improved over recent years and is a genuine contender.

Who Lifts the World Cup 2026 Trophy?

When making our World Cup predictions, we are backing France to lift the 2026 World Cup trophy. It possesses unrivalled attacking talent, while Didier Deschamps knows how to set up his team to be defensively strong. France has reached the final at the last two World Cups, so it knows how to handle this competition.