AFC Championship Player Props | Best Prop Bets

Written by: Richard Janvrin
Updated January 28, 2023
3 min read
Best AFC Player Prop Bets

With just one game to go in each conference before the Super Bowl, we have a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals.

Here, we’ll look at the best prop bets to make for this game. 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 286.5 Passing Yards (-115) at DraftKings

While Mahomes may be the favorite to land MVP this year, he heads into a tough matchup against a team that beat them last year with a severely injured ankle. While he’s progressed well throughout the week and was a full participant in practice, we cannot overlook this ankle injury.

While this game could turn into a shootout if Mahomes is somehow unphased by the ankle, he’ll still need to meet a passing threshold that he’s only crossed once over his past four games. 

The Bengals have beatable cornerbacks in Eli Apple and Cam Taylor-Britt. Still, as we’ve seen throughout the season, the Chiefs receivers aren’t exactly top threats in the league. 

Apple and Taylor-Britt should be able to hold their own against guys like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster enough to not allow a plethora of passing yards, especially against an injured Mahomes. 

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Pick: Travis Kelce Any Time TD (-115) at DraftKings

Before last week against the Jaguars, Kelce hadn’t scored since Week 12 against the Los Angeles Chargers. 

However, against the Jags, he had two scores on 17 targets and 14 receptions, marking his fourth straight postseason game with a score. 

Mahomes may be injured, but he’ll continue to look for Kelce, especially in these high-pressure environments and games, as he is his most reliable target in this offense by far. 

He’ll also matchup primarily with linebacker Logan Wilson who allows 80.5% of his targets to get caught (62 of 77 for 585 yards). 

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Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 2.5 Passing TDs (-194) at Caesars 

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Yeah, closing in at -200, we know this isn’t top-of-the-line value, but it goes hand-in-hand with his passing yardage total prop mentioned above. 

On top of this, the Bengals' pass rush with Trey Hendrickson and company should be able to create enough pressure against an otherwise solid Chiefs offensive line. 

Against the Bills, the Bengals had 28 pressures and nine quarterback hits. 

Considering this, Mahomes’ ankle, and his throwing for three or more scores just once in his last five games, this is an easy bet. 

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Richard Janvrin

Sports Betting Analyst

Expertise:
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After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of English/ Journalism
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Experience:
9 years
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