Kalshi Opens NFL Season With High Volume Amid Legal Battles

Despite mounting legal opposition, Kalshi continues to thrive as the country’s top sports prediction market operator.

Kalshi, which is partnered with Robinhood, has reported over $300 in trades over the first week of the NFL season. Almost $200 of that came on Sunday alone, which was its busiest day since the 2024 presidential election. The impressive volume includes all 50 markets in which Kalshi is live.

The impressive start to the busiest betting season of the year is good news for Kalshi, but it may be hurting them in court. The operator is facing mounting lawsuits from state regulators and tribal gaming groups, who accuse it of offering an unregulated and dangerous form of sports betting. 

If any of the outstanding judgments go against Kalshi, it could affect their ability to operate across the US. That is true even if the tribal gaming groups win, as it would require the prediction market operator to geofence tribal lands, which would be expensive and complicated.

In addition to lawsuits, the CFTC has also been asked to investigate Brian Quintenz and his relationship with Kalshi. Rivals have accused him of using sensitive financial information he accesses during his time as the head of the regulator, and using it to help Kalshi. Quintenz remains the nominee to resume the rule under President Trump, though his nomination has been delayed. 

The odds continue to be in favor of sports prediction markets remaining legal, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Kalshi will be protected. 

Kalshi Faces First Test

Kalshi went all in on this NFL season, openly marketing its controversial markets as a way to bet on sports legally. They promised better pricing with easy early cashouts, but it's too early to know if that held true in Week 1.

The high volume is a good sign, but this week will be far more telling. Many users were trying Kalshi for the first time, switching over from traditional sportsbooks. There have been some grumblings on social media suggesting many found higher prices and fewer options. If that ends up being the case, we will likely see a massive volume drop after Week 2 is over. 

If we don’t see a drop, it could be an omen that the golden age of legal sports betting is coming to an unceremonious end.