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|Match Result and Both Teams to Score||Odds|
|Borussia Dortmund and Yes||+450
|Tie and Yes||+350
|Bayern Munich and Yes||+155
The attacks should win the battle against the defenses, and we see the champions proving too strong for BVB.
Back Bayern Munich to win and both teams to score on Saturday. (+155)
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As far as weekends go, the first one in October was virtually perfect for Bayern Munich. Their 4-0 thumping of Bayer Leverkusen marked an emphatic return to form following a poor spell in September. Not only that but Borussia Dortmund, their likeliest rivals for the Bundesliga title, slipped up against Koln (more of which is below). And for good measure, the current league leaders Union Berlin were also beaten, allowing Bayern to move within two points of the top spot.
Bayern certainly needed a convincing victory, and that is exactly what they got. Before domestic soccer paused for the conclusion of the Nations League group stage, Julian Nagelsmann’s side had drawn three games in succession to cast doubt on their ability to win an 11th consecutive title. To be clear, Bayern were still overwhelming favorites even after that disappointing stretch, but that run of results – Borussia Monchengladbach, Union, and Stuttgart were the opponents they failed to beat – left Nagelmann feeling the heat.
The triumph over Leverkusen featured one of Bayern’s best performances of the campaign to date. The home team took the lead in the third minute through Leroy Sane, then added two more goals before half-time. Thomas Muller notched another late on to add further gloss to the scoreline. Bayern had 20 shots, nine of which hit the target, and although Leverkusen had opportunities of their own, most came after Nagelsmann’s men had racked up a significant lead.
Jamal Musiala continued his fantastic start to the campaign with another superb display. Matthijs de Ligt was solid at the back, while Joshua Kimmich looked back to his best in midfield. Alphonso Davies rampaged down the left and Sadio Mane, who has had a tough start to life in Munich, got on the scoresheet. It was, in short, an entirely positive return to action for Bayern.
The same, alas, cannot be said for Dortmund. A victory over Koln would have sent them to the summit of the standings after eight rounds of fixtures, which would have been a handy confidence booster ahead of the visit of Bayern this weekend. They led 1-0 at the break thanks to Julian Brandt’s opener, but a poor second-half showing saw Koln score three times to win 3-2.
Dortmund have now lost three matches this term, the same number as 16th-placed Stuttgart among others. They have not drawn a single game, which suggests BVB’s binary boom-or-bust existence persists following the replacement of Marco Rose with Edin Terzic over the summer (they tied only three of their 34 encounters in 2021/22).
There are mitigating circumstances, of course. Dortmund have been hit hard by injuries and even illness in the first couple of months of 2022/23. Marco Reus, the club’s talisman, is a particularly significant loss. But from 1-0 up, BVB should not have lost to Koln. The defeat gave air to doubts over Terzic’s in-game management, with the 39-year-old criticized by some supporters for making an attacking substitution last weekend that unbalanced the midfield and left BVB vulnerable in transition.
Ahead of Saturday’s showdown, the head-to-head record between these two teams does not make for positive reading for Dortmund: Bayern have won each of the last seven Bundesliga meetings, and 10 of the last 11.
In terms of attacking numbers, Bayern have been by far and away the most effective team in the Bundesliga so far this season. Twenty-three goals in eight matches is a remarkable return almost equal to three per game on average. It is also five more goals than Werder Bremen, the next highest-scorers. For all Bayern’s problems at times, putting the ball in the back of the net has not been one of them.
Dortmund have been much less convincing going forward. Sebastien Haller was bought to be Erling Haaland’s replacement at the top of the pitch, but he is currently undergoing treatment on a testicular tumor. Anthony Modeste has struggled in his place. The Frenchman does not offer much in terms of link-up or approach play, which would be forgivable if he was scoring regularly but the former Koln man has found the net just once for BVB so far.
Dortmund’s overall record of 10 goals in eight games is underwhelming, but we still fancy them to breach Bayern’s backline here. Each of the last four matches between this pair has ended in a Bayern victory with goals at both ends – put some money on the same outcome this weekend.
|Teams||Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich|
|Location||Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany|
|Time||Saturday, 8 October 2022, 12.30 PM EST|
|How to watch||ESPN+|
Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]More info on Greg Lea
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