3M Open - Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks
- Harris English can get a reward for his impressive season with a victory at +3500 with DraftKings.
- Defending champion Matthew Wolff was runner-up at the recent Rocket Mortgage Classic and can gun down Bubba Watson in a 72-hole match.
- Dylan Frittelli was in the top ten after 54 holes here last year and has shown enough good form since golf returned to make him a top 20 bet at +300.
|Where||TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minnesota|
|When||Thursday, 23 July – Sunday, 26 July|
|How to watch||Thursday-Friday, 2.30pm-6.30pm ET (Golf Channel). Saturday 1pm-3pm (Golf Channel), 3pm-6pm (CBS), Sunday, 1pm-3pm (Golf Channel), 3pm-6pm (CBS). All 4 days on Sky Sports|
After back-to-back weeks at Muirfield Village in Ohio, the PGA Tour heads to Blaine, Minnesota for just the second edition of the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. It means a shortage of course form for the Arnold Palmer par 71 which was renovated by local native and former Open Championship winner Tom Lehman.
Lehman’s tinkerings ahead of the 2019 tournament were designed to toughen the course up but it didn’t play out that way as young gun Matthew Wolff won his first PGA Tour event with a thrilling final-hole eagle to shoot 21-under and edge out Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa by a shot.
The two runners-up have both recorded wins since the PGA Tour returned in June although neither return to TPC Twin Cities this time. However, this week’s field isn’t lacking in quality. Major champions and former World No.1s Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka both peg it up while Tommy Fleetwood makes his first appearance since the re-start.
Fleetwood had a first look at the course on Tuesday and noted:
Great golf course, a good test. I think there’s quite a few holes where you’re going to have good birdie chances but, at the same time, you can easily hit a shot awry and end up making bogey.
It’s been playing pretty soft, especially with the rain as well this (Tuesday) morning. So if you’re dialed in and you’re hitting it well you can take advantage of that.
3M Open Odds
Odds taken from DraftKings.
There’s plenty of class at the front of the market although all those priced under +2000 have holes in their current form. Favorite Dustin Johnson won the Travelers Championship last month but then returned to action with two unfathomable rounds of 80 to miss the cut at Memorial last time. “One of those weeks,” he said with a shrug of the shoulders.
Tony Finau contended heavily for 54 holes at Memorial but then slumped to a closing 78 when the heat was on while Brooks Koepka suffered two miserable weeks at Muirfield Village, missing the cut at the Workday Charity Open and sliding to T62 at Memorial after a 73-80 weekend.
Fleetwood, who came to the United States two weeks ago to quarantine, has been playing practice rounds but hasn’t competed competitively since March while Paul Casey has hardly set the world alight with T32 and MC in his two starts this summer.
Side With English
With doubts hanging over the front five, this could be a great chance for Harris English to reward his strong season-long play with a ‘W’.
The University of Georgia product had four top-six finishes in his first five starts of the campaign and he’s now reeled off a further five top 20s in his last six events. That includes tied 17th in the RBC Heritage where he closed with 64 and T13 in last week’s Memorial. Go through the bag and there are no weaknesses. He’s 25th in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee, 29th in Approach, 30th in Putting and 13th Tee To Green. Put it all together and he’s 10th for Strokes Gained Total.
The slight concern is that he’s one of the golfers who tested positive for COVID-19 (at the Rocket Mortgage last month) but English said last week: “I feel like I’ve fully recovered.” It meant he had to shake some rust off at Memorial after three weeks on the sidelines but T13 showed he did that extremely well and now is his big chance to kick on.
English is +3500 and that’s worth a play.
Wolff Can Take Down Watson Over 72 Holes
We’re still on a 4-for-4 run in 72-hole match bets after last weeks was voided following Brandt Snedeker’s withdrawal so let’s try and extend the sequence here.
Defending champ Matthew Wolff reminded us of his talents with second place at the Rocket Mortgage Classic – another low-scoring event – at the start of the month and showed his skills again with T22 at Memorial. He’s put up in a pick ‘em match bet against Bubba Watson, both men on offer at -110.
Watson is playing this event for the first time but he’s a far safer proposition on courses he likes. Here, we’re just guessing and the answer could well be ‘no’.The left-hander has missed three of his last four cuts on the PGA Tour and, although he improved with T32 last week, his putter remains stone-cold and that’s not good going into a birdie-fest.
Wolff, by contrast, ranked fifth for Strokes Gained: Putting at the Rocket Mortgage and putted nicely again at Memorial.
Frittelli Can Finish in Top 20
South African Dylan Frittelli fell away at the finish in this event last year but rounds of 66 in rounds one and three were impressive. His second 5-under lap put Frittelli in a tie for ninth after 54 holes so TPC Twin Cities is definitely a track he likes. He comes sharper into the crosshairs when looking at recent form.
Frittelli was T18 at Bay Hill (another Arnold Palmer design) and a superb closing 62 at Hilton Head gave him a top ten finish at the RBC Heritage.
He was just a single shot away from making the top 20 against a much tougher field at last week’s Memorial (T22) so bet365’s +300 for him to achieve the feat here is attractive.
3M Open – Our Picks
In the outright market, take Harris English at +3500 with DraftKings while Matthew Wolff at -110 can enjoy a better finishing position than Bubba Watson in the same firm’s matchups. Finally, place a wager on Dylan Frittelli to make the top 20 at +300 with bet365.
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Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.
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