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Sungjae Im to win at +1600 with DraftKings Sportsbook
Emiliano Grillo to beat Justin Thomas over 72 holes at -120 DraftKings Sportsbook
Greyson Sigg for a Top 20 at +300 with bet365
The 3M Open is one of the newer events on the PGA Tour and was first played in 2019.
That inaugural edition witnessed a dramatic Sunday shootout with Matthew Wolff edging out future Major winners Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa by a shot.
Wins for Cameron Champ and Tony Finau in the last two years have confirmed the idea that big hitting is rewarded at TPC Twin Cities.
But there is hope for those who don’t bomb it. That comes via Michael Thompson’s triumph in 2020 although, on the admittedly little evidence we have, that looks like an outlier.
What isn’t in doubt is that birdies are needed here given that winning scores have fallen between 15-under and 21-under inclusive.
Long, straight driving and accurate iron play are the most trustworthy routes to profit if scanning results from the past four years.
One other angle worth considering is that there are just two more events - this and next week’s Wyndham Championship - for players to book a spot in the top 70 who’ll advance to the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
|Year||Champion and the winning score|
|2022||Tony Finau (USA) -17|
|2021||Cameron Champ (USA) -15|
|2020||Michael Thompson (USA) -19|
|2019||Matthew Wolff (USA) -21|
Finau got red-hot this time last year, winning this event and then going back-to-back with another triumph at the following week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. But since another ‘W’ in April’s Houston Open, Big Tone’s form has dropped off seriously. He’s missed three of his last five cuts and hasn’t had a top 30 for five starts.
Young confirmed his reputation as a specialist in the Majors by playing his way into the final group at Hoylake. A disappointing Sunday left him eighth but he’s clearly in good nick again as that followed a top six in the John Deere Classic. It’s his tournament debut but Young’s elite driving suggests he’ll be a good fit.
The Korean is another strong driver of the ball and that’s worked well for him here. Im was tied for 15th on debut in 2019 and runner-up on his second appearance last year. In his eight rounds at TPC Twin Cities Im is 28-under par. He returns after a solid top 20 in the Open.
Im’s tied 20th at Hoylake in his third Open appearance needs a little added context.
Previously, the Korean had missed the cut at Royal Portrush in 2019 and finished tied 81st at St Andrews in 2022.
That suggests his top 20 is worth more than on first glance and it further hints at a return to form after a top 25 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic earlier this month.
But it’s Im’s course form that bumps him to the front of the queue.
Looking at those two finishes of 15th and second, he drove the ball beautifully, ranking 2nd for SG: Off The Tee last year and 9th in 2019.
He’s also putted these greens well and the fact that there is a good correlation between this event and the Honda Classic further heightens the case for Im.
Why? Im won the Honda Classic in 2020 and took eighth when defending.
He came runner-up last year a week after playing all four rounds in the Open Championship so there are no concerns that jet lag could throw him off course.
Back him for the win at +1600 with DraftKings Sportsbook.
These are strange times for Justin Thomas.
The two-time Major winner shot an 81 to miss the cut in last month’s US Open and took 82 swings in the first round at Hoylake to again crash out early.
He’s now missed four of his last six cuts and finished 60th or worse in six of his last seven tournaments.
There are flashes of good play - he did manage ninth at the Travelers Championship during that horror run - but generally, he’s way off the mark with confidence at rock bottom.
In this state, he has to be opposed in match bets and Emiliano Grillo looks a good man to take him on with.
The Argentine has finished second and third here in his three visits (it’s Thomas’s debut) while he made the top six at Hoylake after closing with a 68.
Back Grillo at -120 with DraftKings Sportsbook to outscore Thomas over 72 holes.
Greyson Sigg has a tied 13th (John Deere Classic) and a tied 19th (Travelers Championship) in his last four starts so on those very basic numbers is worth a bet for Top 20 at +300.
But, in addition, the 28-year-old from Georgia was seventh on his first look at this course last year so he covers the course form angle too.
Sigg is a resident of St. Simons Island alongside Brian Harman so might just take some inspiration from his neighbor’s Open heroics.
And, finally, he’s 100th in the FedEx Cup standings so needs a big week to jump 30 spots and make the Playoffs.
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|Tournament||The 3M Open|
|Location||TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, MN|
|Time||Thursday, July 27 - Sunday, July 30|
|How to Watch||Thursday - Friday 4 p.m.-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). Saturday - Sunday 1 p.m-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6 p.m. (CBS). And all four days on Sky Sports.|
Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.
Email: [email protected]More info on Dave Tindall
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