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Odds taken from BetMGM sportsbook.
JT Poston is the outright pick at +4000 with DraftKings
Christopher Gotterup top 10 at +410 and win at +4500 with FanDuel Sportsbook
Cam Davis to beat Sahith Theegala at -105 with BetMGM
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There have been just three editions of the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota and it has to be said that anyone picking all three winners is probably living on a superyacht right now.
Maybe a few were on Matthew Wolff in 2019 because he’d just emerged from the amateur ranks with a big reputation.
However the brutal truth is that his only three previous starts on the PGA Tour had reaped just T50th and two missed cuts.
What about Michael Thompson a year later? Unquestionably much more difficult to pick.
Thompson had finished tied eighth in the RBC Heritage three month earlier but it was his only top 30 in 14 starts and he hadn’t finished top five anywhere since a victory on the second tier four years before.
Last year Cameron Champ had contended in his previous start, but he’d also fallen from third to T11th in the final around and that result was his only top 20 in 15 starts.
So what do we reckon this year? Try to work it all out or stick a pin in the field? What’s the plan?
What we do know is that, in the week after the final major championship of the year, the British Open, the field strength is low.
The stars are mostly keeping their powder dry for the FedExCup Playoffs and some are wandering around darkened room considering offers from LIV Golf.
TPC Twin Cities was designed by Arnold Palmer’s firm of architects and that gives us something of a clue about the set-up.
It’s a par-71 at 7,431 yards and Palmer always liked to give aggressive drivers of the ball an advantage from the tee.
So taking bold lines of attack and/or taking aim at distant targets should, in theory, pay dividends of well-executed.
In his last eight rounds of golf stateside JT Poston has been sensational.
He opened with a 62 to lead the Travlers Championship, added 70-67, and then closed with a 64 for second place.
A week later he maintained the pace, carding 62-65-67-69 to land a superb wire-to-wire triumph in the John Deere Classic.
That victory earned him a start in the British Open where two rounds of 73 saw him miss the cut, but it was a first experience of linksland golf so we can easily forgive that effort.
After the win he said:
I’ve been playing some great golf the last few weeks and really going back to April I felt pretty good about my game. I felt like this was coming.
I think those words hint that he can keep the pedal to the metal back on home soil.
And the clincher is that he made a decent debut at Twin Cities.
Twelve months ago he opened 69-66 to sit inside the top 10. His Moving Day round was poor – a 76 – but he bounced back with a 66 on Sunday for T28th.
Take him at +800 for a top five and +4000 to win with DraftKings.
Might this be a good week for recently-turned-pro Christopher Gotterup to take a look at the list of winners and feel good about what Matthew Wolff achieved?
The US college standout finished tied seventh in the Puerto Rico Open earlier this year and started the summer by turning pro.
When he finished tied fourth in the John Deere Classic at the start of the month he came mighty close to landing a British Open debut.
Instead he headed to the Barnasol Championship and was immediately made favorite by any books.
It was a bit early for that and he ended the week missing the cut, but take heed – he recovered from a 75 (easy to do with high expectations) yet responded with a 67.
His coach at Oklahoma, Ryan Hybl, said of Gotterup:
His ball-striking is tour quality and his driving can be unbeatable at times. More importantly, he is gritty and he believes he is supposed to be there, which is high on the value chart.
He was excellent on the par-fours at TPC Deere Run and those medium length holes are key this week also.
Grab him to make the top 10 at +410 and win at +4500 with the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Even on first glance I quite like the match-up between Cam Davis and Sahith Theegala.
A look at their career’s shows that Davis leads the head-to-head count 13-9.
Throughout 2022 the split is 6-4.
But in their careers on bent grass greens the advantage grows to a persuasive 8-3.
Bit it is above and beyond the stats that I like the bet even more.
Davis has played the course three times, missing the cut on debut, landing T12th in 2020 and T28th last year.
Theegala has just one missed cut to his name in 2020.
Here’s the rub though: Theegala has scoliosis, a condition that affects his back and, after landing a late call-up to the Open he could only find student accommodation in St Andrews.
By the end of the week the soft bed was playing havoc with that back and he’s had a trans-Atlantic flight since. That info is the clincher.
Davis is the pick at -105 with BetMGM.
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|Tournament||The 3M Open|
|Location||TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minnesota|
|Time||Thursday July 21 – Sunday July 24|
|How to watch||Thursday-Friday, 2:30-6:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). Saturday-Sunday 1-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3-6 p.m. (CBS). And all four days on Sky Sports.|
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Matt Cooper has been a sports journalist since 2009 with his work appearing at ESPN, Sky Sports, NBC, Sporting Life and the Planet Sport Network among many others, in addition to guest appearances on the BBC and CNN. Although a specialist in golf, who has traveled the world to cover the sport, Matt has also covered rugby, cricket, football and the Olympics. Email: [email protected]More info on Matt Cooper
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