Arnold Palmer Invitational Predictions: Henley to be King of the Hill

• This is the second event of the four-tournament Florida Swing

• Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill has hosted every edition since 1979

• Scottie Scheffler seeks a third API win in four years

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 Odds

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Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 Predictions

• Russell Henley each-way (1/4, 5 places) at +3500 with bet365

• Ben Griffin to beat Taylor Pendrith over 72 holes at +110 with bet365

• Tommy Fleetwod for Top 10 at +225 with bet365

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 Intro

Joe Highsmith took advantage of a modest field to win last week’s Cognizant Classic but a shock winner looks far less likely at Bay Hill this week.

This is the fourth Signature Event of the season and the first three went to elite players: Hideki Matsuyama (The Sentry), Rory McIlroy (Pebble Beach) and Ludvig Aberg (The Genesis Invitational.

We know the drill now for these elevated tournaments: a purse of $20m and a limited field (72 players tee it up at Bay Hill). 

Arnie’s event so often produces a top-quality winner.

Tiger Woods won here eight times, Scottie Scheffler and Ernie Els are double winners while the trophy is engraved with the names of numerous other Major champions.

Bay Hill is a super-tough course. Water lurks on half the holes, there are numerous sand traps and the rough this year has been allowed to grow to four inches.

Add in a windy weather forecast for two of the four days and single digits under par could be the winning score again.

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Winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Course Notes

• Bay Hill is a par 72 measuring 7,466 yards

• Water is in play on nine of the 18 holes

• The slick Bermuda greens are set to run at 13.5 on the Stimpmeter 

• The weather forecast predicts windy conditions in R1 and R4 

• Payne Stewart (1987) holds the 72-hole record of 264

• Andy Bean, Greg Norman and Adam Scott have the 18-hole course record of 62

Favorites to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025

Scottie Scheffler (+320) at bet365

This was the scene of Scheffler’s second PGA Tour win in 2022 and, after fourth in 2023, he followed that up in 2024, winning by five from Wyndham Clark. The World No.1 has 13 PGA TOUR titles now but hasn’t yet added to the tally in 2025 after a delayed start to the season after a minor hand op. Still, ninth at Pebble, 25th in Phoenix and third at the Genesis suggest he’s circling and ready to swoop.

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Rory McIlroy (+800) at bet365

Rory has always enjoyed Bay Hill since making his debut with 11th in 2015. He’s played every edition since, winning in 2018, finishing runner-up in 2023 and racking up four further top 10s. In 10 attempts, he’s never been worse than 27th. Rory has ticked off another goal already in 2025 after winning the Pebble Beach Pro-Am for the first time. His only start since is 17th at the Genesis while he opened the year with fourth in the Dubai Desert Classic.

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Ludvig Aberg (+1400) at bet365

Aberg started his season with a top five in The Sentry and flew out of the blocks with 63 in the Farmers Insurance Open. Illness curtailed his bid there and also forced a WD at Pebble but his return to Torrey Pines for The Genesis Invitational proved a triumphant one as he closed with a 66 to take victory, ranking 1st for SG: Tee To Green. In two Bay Hill starts he’s posted 24th and 25th while his last Florida start resulted in eighth at THE PLAYERS.

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Henley Holds Strong Hand  

With the rough up and wind in the forecast, there could be a premium on hitting fairways this week and that’s why Russell Henley comes into the crosshairs.

The 35-year-old American is 9th for Driving Accuracy this season while his all-round game is shown off by ranks of 18th for SG: Total, 19th SG: Putting and 26th SG: Approach.

Those strong stats have translated into some impressive results.

Henley enjoyed the West Coast Swing, finishing 10th at the Sony Open and fifth at Pebble Beach.

And the Georgia Bulldog continued that good play in the opening event of the Florida Swing when sixth at last week’s Cognizant Classic.

Henley took his time to work out Bay Hill but he posted 13th place in 2022 while last year he was a factor throughout before finishing fourth.    

A gritty player on tough courses - he’s made the top 15 in three of the last four US Opens - back Henley each-way at +3500 (1/4, 5 places) with bet365.

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Griffin to Beat Pendrith

Taylor Pendrith enjoyed the West Coast Swing, posting top 10s at both the Farmers Insurance Open and Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

But, lo and behold, as soon as the PGA TOUR returned to Florida, his form flopped.

And that’s why I’m going to back the dog, Ben Griffin, to beat -134 Pendrith in a 72-hole match here.

Pendrith missed the cut at last week’s Cognizant Classic and that means he’s now crashed out at halfway in his latest four events in Florida, cashing in just one of the last six.

By contrast, Griffin didn’t get much going out west but in his two most recent starts he’s put up fourth places at both the Mexico Open and last week’s Cognizant Classic.

Narrowing the focus to course form rather than Florida form and Griffin again holds the aces.

He was 14th at Bay Hill on his only start in 2023 while Pendrith’s form at Arnie’s place is MC-42. 

Take Griffin to win this 72-holer at +110 with bet365.

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Fleetwood for Top 10

Tommy Fleetwood has three top 10s at Bay Hill and, in his current form, the Englishman is worth a bet at +225 for another.

Fleetwood has reeled off four top 10s in his last seven worldwide starts (the other three were all top 25s) and that includes a fifth place on his latest start at The Genesis Invitational.  

How to Watch the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025

• Tournament: Arnold Palmer Invitational

• Location: Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, FL

• Date: Thursday March 06 - Sunday March 09

• How to Watch: Thursday-Friday 2 p.m.-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel, NBC Sports App), Saturday-Sunday 12.30 p.m.-2.30 p.m. (Golf Channel, NBC Sports App), 2.30 p.m.-6 p.m. (NBC, Peacock) And all four days on Sky Sports