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|Rafa Cabrera Bello||+3500
Bernd Wiesberger each-way at +2200 with bet365
Guido Migliozzi to outscore Calum Hill in a 72-hole match at -125 with bet365
Martin Kaymer to finish in the top 10 at +333 with bet365
After the hammering at Whistling Straits, Valderrama should stir some more positive Ryder Cup vibes for European golf fans.
This week’s venue staged the 1997 showdown when Seve Ballesteros’ underdog Europeans fought proudly to edge out Tom Kite’s Americans by a single point.
But Valderrama’s history doesn’t end with that thrilling European win 24 years ago.
The iconic Robert Trent Jones layout has hosted a World Golf Championship along with 25 European Tour events and has been a familiar presence since the turn of the century.
The course is famous for its narrow fairways and shots have to be threaded through the abundance of cork trees.
That demands great accuracy from tee to green so this is a welcome change for viewers used to watching bomb and gouge on the PGA TOUR each week.
Valderrama’s test is further heightened by small, fast, and undulating greens. It’s easy to miss them so strong scrambling skills are needed.
A check of past winners shows that the cream often rises to the top. The modern Valderrama king is Sergio Garcia (three-time winner) although he’s not playing this week.
Instead, favoritism belongs to compatriot Jon Rahm but after he failed to win at an even shorter price last week, punters may be wary.
It didn’t work out for Bernd Wiesberger at the Ryder Cup but he was hardly alone in that from a European perspective.
There were still positives to be taken from the week as Europe bonded well and, quite simply, they were outplayed by the better side.
The proof that the Austrian didn’t take defeat badly was shown in last week’s Open de Espana where he got better as the week went on and finished tied 12th (70-67-67-66).
Before the Ryder Cup he’d also logged a top 20 in the prestigious BMW Championship at Wentworth and two starts before that, Wiesberger was runner-up in the European Masters in the Swiss Alps.
Both those events are played on tree-lined courses (Wentworth and Valderrama) and plenty of correlating form can be found between them and Valderrama.
Surprisingly, Wiesberger has only played here once, finishing tied 31st in 2020.
But he’s just the sort of steady player who can thrive and his rankings of third for Strokes Gained: Approach, 11th for Scrambling, and 22nd for SG: Off The Tee show his game is a great fit.
With Rahm dominating the betting, Wiesberger’s price of +2200 looks value.
Back the eight-time European Tour winner each way at ¼ the odds (1-2-3-4-5).
Our streak of match-bet winners ended in a frustrating fashion last week as Justin Harding finished in a tie with John Catlin, the latter the winner of this event last year.
This week I’ll turn to Italy’s Guido Migliozzi to outscore Calum Hill.
Hill had a memorable run in August, highlighted by a win at the Cazoo Classic in England, but he’s cooled off in recent weeks.
The Scotsman missed the cut at Wentworth after opening with a 78 and had to settle for tied 45th in last week’s Open de Espana.
The biggest red flag over his chances here, though, is his one appearance last year. Hill shot twin 77s and missed the cut by a distance.
That contrasts with Migliozzi, who really found his feet at Valderrama 12 months ago when finishing in a tie for sixth.
The 24-year-old could be a name to look out for in the 2023 Ryder Cup when the tournament is played in his Italian homeland.
Migliozzi is already a two-time European Tour winner and earlier this year took his game to a new level when tied fourth in the US Open at Torrey Pines.
He’s been a little patchy of late but has a tied seventh and a tied 17th in two of his last five starts and Valderrama could bring out the best in him.
Back Migliozzi at -125 with bet365 to get the better of Hill over 72 holes.
This is a tournament that #TeamCourseForm has near the top of its list as Valderrama is a precise test: some relish it while others just can’t find the key.
One of the course specialists is Martin Kaymer and he’s going to be our play to make the top 10 at +333 with bet365.
The German has pegged it up seven times at Valderrama and never finished worse than tied 27th.
But more to the point, he’s made the top six in four of those, finishing runner-up in 2008 and again last year.
He said 12 months ago: “Winning in Valderrama was always one of my goals, one of my dreams. To win here would be something very special.”
That hasn’t come yet and, with this bet, we don’t need him to get the ‘W’.
But it’s good to know the esteem in which Kaymer holds the course and, although we saw him in a vice-captains role at the Ryder Cup, he’s played some good golf over the last three or four months.
Kaymer was runner-up at the BMW International Open, tied 18th at Crans, and made the top 25 at Wentworth.
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Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.
Email: [email protected]More info on Dave Tindall
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