The FedEx St. Jude Championship Odds: Burns to Heat It Up

Written by: Dave Tindall
Published August 9, 2023
6 min read
  • This is the opening event of the three-tournament FedExCup Playoffs 
  • Only the top 70 on the standings have made it through this year 
  • Will Zalatoris won last year but isn’t here to defend 

FedEx St. Jude Championship Odds

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Player

Odds 

Scottie Scheffler

+650

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Jon Rahm

+900

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Rory McIlroy

+900

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Patrick Cantlay

+1600

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Xander Schauffele

+1800

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Viktor Hovland

+2000

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Collin Morikawa

+2500

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Tyrrell Hatton

+2500

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Rickie Fowler

+2800

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Tommy Fleetwood

+2800

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FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks and Predictions

  • Sam Burns for the win at +3300 with BetMGM
  • J.T. Poston to beat Russell Henley over 72 holes at +100 DraftKings Sportsbook
  • Lee Hodges for a Top 20 at +240 with DraftKings Sportsbook
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FedEx St. Jude Championship Predictions

FedEx St. Jude Championship Intro

Only the top 70 in the FedExCup standings have made it through to the Playoffs this year.

That’s down from the usual 125 and means star names such as Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry and Adam Scott won’t contest the opening event of the three-tournament series.

For just the second year, that takes place at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee.

Previously, the opener alternated between New York, New Jersey, and Boston but it moved south 12 months ago.

The champion last year was Will Zalatoris - the seventh straight American winner of the Playoff Series’ first event - although injury has stopped him from qualifying this time.  

TPC Southwind is a familiar venue on the PGA Tour having hosted tournaments since 1989.

That gives punters a wealth of course form to pick through and it’s certainly thrown up plenty of course horses.

Strong Strokes Gained: Tee To Green play has been a feature of recent winners at the course - a par 70 that measures just over 7,200 yards.

Within that category, SG: Approach stands out, and hitting the smaller-than-usual Bermuda greens is a key skill.

The top 50 on the FedExCup standings at the end of the event advance to next week’s BMW Championship at Olympia Fields in Illinois.

Then, as ever, the leading 30-point scorers make the journey to East Lake in Atlanta to play for the enormous money on offer at the season-ending TOUR Championship.    

FedEx St. Jude Championship Winners

Year

Champion and winning score

2022

Will Zalatoris (United States) -15 (TPC Southwind)

2021

Tony Finau (United States) -20 (Liberty National)

2020

Dustin Johnson (United States) -30 (TPC Boston)

2019

Patrick Reed (United States) -16 (Liberty National)

2018

Bryson DeChambeau (United States) -18 (Ridgewood)

2017

Dustin Johnson (United States) -13 (Glen Oaks)

2016

Patrick Reed (United States) -9 (Bethpage Black)

2015

Jason Day (Australia) -19 (Edison)

2014

Hunter Mahan (United States) -14 (Ridgewood)

2013

Adam Scott (Australia) -11 Playoff (Liberty National)

TPC Southwind Course Notes

  • TPC Southwind is a par 70 measuring 7,233 yards
  • The course was designed by Ron Prichard and features Zoysia fairways
  • The greens were changed to Bermuda (from Bentgrass) in 2004
  • Water is in play on 10 holes while nine are doglegs
  • Three players - Tom Lewis, Bob Estes and Jay Delsing - hold the course record of 61 
  • Strokes Gained: Tee To Green has been a key stat

Favorites to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship

Scottie Scheffler (+650)

Scheffler’s amazing streak of having finished in the top 12 of every event he’d contested in 2023 finally came to an end at Hoylake where he could manage ‘only’ 23rd. But back in the southern States of homeland, expect him to get in the mix again even though the course form of MC-14-15-43-MC is patchy. 

Jon Rahm (+900)

Rahm fired 63-70 on the weekend to finish tied second at Hoylake, albeit six behind runaway Open winner Brian Harman. A two-time champ on the PGA Tour this year, including The Masters, Rahm has finished fifth (2022) and seventh (2019) in two of his three starts at TPC Southwind.   

Rory McIlroy (+900)

McIlroy’s sixth place at Hoylake was his seventh straight top 10 and that includes a brilliant win in the Scottish Open where he birdied the final two holes with the wind howling. He missed the cut here last year but does have some course form in the bank: 4th (2019), 7th (2012), and 12th (2021). 

Burns to Add Another Win 

Sam Burns has a score to settle with this event having suffered a lip-out in the playoff here in 2021.

He’d reached extra holes thanks to a brilliant final-round 64, a score he’d also hoisted up in round two.

Burns has won five times on the PGA Tour since mid-2021 and very, very few in this field can match that.

The ones who can are at the top end of the market at single-figure odds but Burns is available at +3300.

Four of those five victories have come on Bermuda greens and they’re the putting surface on show in Memphis this week.

Burns tuned up nicely with a top 15 in the Wyndham Championship (also Bermuda greens) and a close inspection of his career over the last few years shows he delivers repeat stellar performances on the same tracks.

With a second here two years ago and a top 20 last year (seventh after 54 holes), this is another Deep South layout that can be put on his list of favorites.  

Poston to Beat Henley 

This week’s pick is J.T. Poston to outscore Russell Henley.

Poston continued his excellent form with seventh at the Wyndham and his last four finishes in non-Majors now reads 7-2-6-6.

He has course form too with two top 20s and a 30th in his last three appearances at TPC Southwind.

Henley had a golden chance to take victory at the Wyndham but his tournament ended on a sour note as three closing bogeys wrecked his chance of winning.

With missed cuts on his last two Southwind starts (2017 and 2022), there are some clear negatives.

It’s not obvious why Poston should be the ‘dog in this match-up so let’s snap up the +100.

Hodges to Land Top 20

Lee Hodges had his big breakthrough moment when shooting 24-under to land the 3M Open a couple of weeks ago.

It followed tied 12th in the Scottish Open midway through July so something has really clicked.

A southern boy, the Alabama native has only a short hop to Tennessee and he enjoyed his St. Jude debut last year when firing bookend 65s to take tied 13th.

It seems reasonable to expect something similar so back Hodges at +240 to crack the top 20.   

His chances are enhanced by this being just a 70-man field.  

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How to Watch the FedEx St. Jude Championship

  • Tournament: FedEx St. Jude Championship
  • Location: TPC Southwind, Memphis, TN 
  • Date: THURSDAY AUGUST 10 - SUNDAY AUGUST 13
  • How to watch: THURSDAY-FRIDAY 2 p.m.-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). SATURDAY-SUNDAY 1 p.m-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6 p.m. (CBS). And all four days on Sky Sports.
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Dave Tindall

Golf Betting Analyst

Expertise:
Golf
Betting Picks
Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.
Nationality: British
Education: Bachelor of Arts (Psychology and Media)
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Experience:
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