John Deere Classic 2024 Predictions: Make it McCarthy

Written by: Dave Tindall
Updated July 2, 2024
7 min read
  • This is the final event before a two-week run in Scotland

  • Sepp Straka returns to defend the title he won last year  

  • Strokes Gained: Putting is key at TPC Deere Run

John Deere Classic 2024 Odds

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our code WSNMGM and claim a bonus offer at BetMGM: Get Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets!*
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Sungjae Im+1400
Sepp Straka+1600
Aaron Rai+1800
Jordan Spieth+2000
Denny McCarthy+2200
Maverick McNealy+2200
Davis Thompson+2500
Keith Mitchell+3000
Jason Day+3300
J.T. Poston+3300

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John Deere Classis 2024 Predictions

John Deere Classic 2024 Intro

The calendar flipping to July means the focus will soon turn to the linksland of the United Kingdom.

But before the Scottish Open and the Open Championship at Royal Troon, we have one more tournament on American soil.

The John Deere Classic was previously the final warm-up event for the Open but for the last three years, it’s been staged two weeks out.

With most of the top names heading to Scotland shortly, the field here has been compromised although there is still a bit of star quality.

Jordan Spieth is a two-time John Deere winner while fellow Major winner Jason Day is also making the trip to Illinois.

TPC Deere Run is an undulating parkland track with bentgrass fairways and greens.

The birdie count needs to be high as 21-under has won three of the last four editions.

Not surprisingly, most champions here have ranked in the top 10 for Strokes Gained: Putting so prospective winners need to wield a hot flatstick. 

Last 5 Winners of the John Deere Classic

YearChampion, nationality and winning score
2023Sepp Straka (Austria) -21 
2022J.T. Poston (United States) -21 
2021Lucas Glover (United States) -19 
2020Dylan Frittelli (South Africa) -21 
2019Michael Kim (United States) -27
  • There was no tournament in 2020 due to the pandemic

Course Notes

  • TPC Deere Run is a par 71 and measures 7,289 yards

  • The D.A. Weibring design was built on an Arabian horse farm. It opened in 1998

  • Paul Goydos holes the 18-hole-record, a 59 in 2010

  • Michael Kim posted the 72-hole record of 257 in 2018

  • Sepp Straka closed with a 9-under 62 to win by two shots last year  

Favorites to Win the John Deere Classic 2024

Sungjae Im (+1400) at BetMGM

Im may have missed the cut in the last two Majors but his form aside from those U.S. Open and PGA Championship flops has been superb. He returned home to win a Korean Tour event and has since posted fourth at Wells Fargo, ninth at Charles Schwab, eighth at Memorial and third in the Travelers. His course form isn’t as strong: 26th (2019) and 47th (2021). 

Bet on Sungjae Im (+1400) at BetMGM 

Sepp Straka (+1600) at BetMGM

The straight-hitting Austrian opened up slowly (73) last year but then came storming through with laps of 63, 65 and 62 to win this by two. Since 16th at The Masters, he’s posted a trio of top five finishes and, on his latest start, fired a sparkling 61 to finish 23rd at the Travelers. This is only his second time defending a title. He made a good job of the first, returning to The Honda Classic in 2023 to finish fifth.

Bet on Sepp Straka (+1600) at BetMGM           

Aaron Rai (+1800) at BetMGM

Rai is making his tournament debut but there are good reasons to think he’ll challenge. The Englishman was runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week and that followed on from 19th in the US Open and 14th in the Canadian Open. He’ll hit lots of fairways and the putter is heating up too.

Bet on Aaron Rai (+1800) at BetMGM        

McCarthy to Make Breakthrough

Denny McCarthy is still without a PGA Tour win despite repeated knocks at the door.

A playoff loss at April’s Texas Open was his closest brush yet and he’s ticked over nicely since.

But now the planets look aligned again for McCarthy to push again and, hopefully, get over the line.

Look down the list of past champions here and Strokes Gained: Putting is a key stat. As is SG: Around The Green.

Check out McCarthy’s season-long standings in those two categories and you’ll find him ranked 2nd for SG: Putting and 20th Around The Green.

That makes him a great fit for this course and it’s no surprise to see that he’s finished sixth in both of the last two editions.

The University of Virginia grad was second after 54 holes both times so he’s been a constant presence on the John Deere leaderboard   

McCarthy hits it straight rather than long which applies to plenty of recent winners here such as Straka and J.T. Poston and, in a weak field, this is a golden chance to get the ‘W’.

Back him each-way at +2200 with BetMGM (1/5 odds 1-2-3-4-5-6).

Thompson to Beat Day

I’m big on Davis Thompson this week and he’s certainly an option in the ‘win’ market too at +2500.

But an easier ask is for him to win his 72-hole match bet against Jason Day.

Thompson is on a roll right now.

In his last six starts, he’s posted a pair of second places (Myrtle Beach and last week’s Rocket Mortgage), ninth in the U.S. Open, 17th at the Charles Schwab, and 27th at Memorial.

He’s striking it well, has a hot short game and is holing putts too.

Day can’t live with that sort of form and the Aussie’s only top 15 in 11 starts since February was fourth in May’s Wells Fargo.

While he’s made all five cuts here, Day’s last appearance was back in 2011 and he didn’t manage better than 15th.

Thompson’s 31st on debut last year was promising and, on current form, the 25-year-old has all the weapons to outscore the veteran.          

Phillips to Land Top 20

Form here at TPC Deere Run correlates very well with Copperhead (Valspar Championship) and Colonial (Charles Schwab).

And that brings Chandler Phillips into the crosshairs given his strong performances at those two venues this year: third at Valspar and 12th at Colonial.

The 27-year-old is a good putter and arrives in strong form after a pair of top 12s in his last three starts.

We could aim higher but the +350 with BetMGM for a Top 20 looks a sensible way of cashing in on the Texan, who has far better form than most of his rivals.

For those that want to push further, he’s +700 for Top 10

How to Watch the John Deere Classic 2024

  • Tournament: John Deere Classic

  • Location: Silvis, IL

  • Date: Thursday, July 4 - Sunday, July 7

  • How to Watch: Thursday-Friday 4 p.m.-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), Saturday-Sunday 1 p.m-3 p.m (Golf Channel), 3 p.m-6.p.m. (CBS). And all four days on Sky Sports.


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Dave Tindall

Golf Betting Analyst

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Dave Tindall is former golf editor at and and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.
Nationality: British
Education: Bachelor of Arts (Psychology and Media)
Favourite Sportsbook: bet365 Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
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