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The John Deere Classic: Get With Grillo

Written by: Dave Tindall
Updated July 5, 2023
13 min read
  • This will be another birdie fest
  • Course form counts for plenty at TPC Deere Run 
  • The par 71 has hosted this event since 2000

John Deere Classic Odds

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Player

Odds 

Denny McCarthy

+1400

BET HERE

Russell Henley

+1400

BET HERE

Cameron Young

+1800

BET HERE

Ludvig Aberg

+2500

BET HERE

Adam Hadwin

+2800

BET HERE

Adam Schenk

+2800

BET HERE

Emiliano Grillo

+2800

BET HERE

Taylor Moore

+2800

BET HERE

Alex Smalley

+3300

BET HERE

Chris Kirk

+3300

BET HERE

John Deere Classic Picks and Predictions

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John Deere Classic Predictions

The John Deere Classic Profile

John Deere Classic Intro

Birdies and eagles are flying everywhere on the PGA Tour right now and expect that to continue at TPC Deere Run this week.

After winning scores of 23-under (Travelers Championship) and 24-under (Rocket Mortgage Classic), there’s a chance we could see that matched in Illinois.

As noted in the table below, seven of the last nine editions were won with 20-under or lower while Michael Kim fired 27-under in 2018. Then again, he did win by eight.

TPC Deere Run is a D.A. Weibring design that opened in 1999. It measures 7,289 yards and par is 71.

With fairways on the generous side, the real examination starts from the short grass.

Wedge play into the bentgrass greens is important and that explains why Steve Stricker won this title three times in a row from 2009.

Jordan Spieth is also a dual winner, further highlighting the importance of past course form.

Winners haven’t always been easy to call although they’re almost always American. 

South African Dylan Frittelli is the only overseas player to lift the trophy in the last 15 editions.     

John Deere Classic Winners

Year

Champion and winning score

2022

J.T. Poston (USA) -21 

2021

Lucas Glover (USA) -19

2020

No tournament

2019

Dylan Frittelli (South Africa) -21

2018

Michael Kim (USA) -27

2017

Bryson DeChambeau (USA) -18

2016

Ryan Moore (USA) -22 

2015

Jordan Spieth (USA) -20 Playoff

2014

Brian Harman (USA) -22

2013

Jordan Spieth (USA) -19 Playoff

TPC Deere Run Course Notes

  • TPC Deere Run is a par 71 measuring 7,289 yards from the tips

  • The course was designed by three-time John Deere winner D.A. Weibring

  • The tournament has been played there since 2000

  • 10 of the last 11 winning scores were between 18-under and 22-under inclusive  

  • The greens are bentgrass and could run at 12 on the Stimpmeter

  • There could be rain on Wednesday, making scoring conditions easy

  • The weather should be dry on the weekend

Favorites to win the 2023 John Deere Classic

Denny McCarthy (+1400)

Despite having no PGA Tour title yet, McCarthy is joint-favorite in the betting. That’s due to a strong mix of current and course form. In his last three starts, he’s lost a playoff at the Memorial Tournament, banked a top 20 in the US Open and posted seventh at the Travelers Championship. One of the Tour’s best putters, he was sixth in this event last year.   

Russell Henley (+1400)

Unlike the other two members of the top three in the betting, Henley is a winner. In fact, he has four wins, the most recent at the 2022 World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico. A runner-up here in 2019 and 11th last year, he’s banked eight top 20s in his last nine PGA Tour starts, including fourth at The Masters. 

Cameron Young (+1800)

Last year’s rookie of the year has a second, a third and a seventh in the last six Majors but he’s still looking for that elusive first PGA Tour title. Young is making his tournament debut but arrives in modest form after failing to record a top 30 in any of his last seven starts.

Grillo can go One Better  

Emiliano Grillo enjoyed an excellent first look at TPC Deere Run last year when finishing runner-up to J.T. Poston.

The Argentine started with a 68 and then shot middle rounds of 64-65. A closing 69 wasn’t enough to reel in Poston.

But Grillo said that week how much he liked the course and clearly those words have substance.

He’ll return showing perhaps the best form of his PGA Tour career.

Grillo won the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial at the end of May, three starts on from recording a top five in the Mexico Open.

That victory at Colonial is elevated in importance given that it correlates well with TPC Deere Run. Four players have won at both venues.  

Last time out the 30-year-old shot rounds of 65 (Friday) and 64 (Sunday) on the way to a top 15 in the Travelers Championship.

With current and course form, Grillo stands out at +2800. Head to bet365 and select the each-way place terms of 1/5 1-8. There are lots of good golf betting sites that are available across the US if you want to explore more betting opportunities. 

McCarthy to Beat Young

Denny McCarthy continues to be one of the best putters on tour so this course should be right in his wheelhouse.

He shot a 65 and two 66s on his first two visits and then made a title push last year before finishing in a tie for sixth.

I’m going to back him to beat Cameron Young in a 72-hole match with bet365.

McCarthy’s current form is far superior to his opponent’s.

Since a top 10 at The Masters, Young has lost his way and hasn’t cracked the top 50 in six of his last seven starts. 

By contrast, McCarthy has form of 7-20-2.

Hadwin to Land Top 10

Adam Hadwin has been making lots of news over the last weeks - and not just for being tackled to the ground by an over-officious security guard at his home Canadian Open.

Hadwin finished 12th in that event and, after making the cut in the US Open, he fired 24-under to make a playoff at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last Sunday, only to lose out to Rickie Fowler.

Hadwin’s putter was red hot in Detroit while he also ranked 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach.  

With finishes of 8th and 18th in two of his three starts here, Hadwin is worth a bet to finish in the Top 10 at +300 with DraftKings Sportsbook

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How to Watch the John Deere Classic

  • Tournament: John Deere Classic
  • Location: TPC Deere Run, Silvis, IL
  • Date: THURSDAY JULY 06 - SUNDAY JULY 09
  • How to watch: THURSDAY-FRIDAY 4 p.m.-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). SATURDAY-SUNDAY 1 p.m-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6 p.m. (CBS). And all four days on Sky Sports.
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AUTHOR

Dave Tindall

106 Articles

Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.



Email: [email protected]

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