LIV Golf League Andalucia Predictions: Stick With Jon Rahm

It’s the final week of LIV Golf’s preparation for the US Open, and the rebel circuit is returning to one of its most popular venues - Real Club Valderrama in Spain.

• Joaquin Niemann is back in the winner’s circle

• Home hero Jon Rahm is the favorite

• Sergio Garcia is a course specialist

LIV Golf Andalucia Odds

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LIV Golf Andalucia Picks and Predictions

• Sergio Garcia each way at +2800 with BetRivers

• Talor Gooch Top 10 +175 with Caesars Sportsbook

• Adrian Meronk Top 10 at +1200 with Caesars Sportsbook

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LIV Golf Andalucia Intro

The obvious fan favorites this week in Valderrama are Spain’s very own Jon Rahm and Sergio Garcia. 

Rahm leads the seasonal standings and is unquestionably the best player on the circuit - even if his T16 result last week in Korea was his worst in 33 starts on LIV Golf (indeed, he has finished top three in 15 of those appearances). 

Garcia, meanwhile, has a sensational record on the course. 

He’s played there 18 times, only once finished outside the top 10, and has eight top three finishes, including four victories.

But the Spanish strength goes further because, in David Puig and Josele Ballester, Spain has the two finest young talents on the rebel circuit. 

Puig is a top 20 machine with 21 of them in his last 25 starts on LIV while Ballester has three top six finishes in his last four LIV starts.

This quartet will attract big crowds to Valderrama, and the test the field faces is a distinct one.

The designer Robert Trent Jones Sr has plotted famously tight fairways through the cork trees, and the putting surfaces are small so accuracy is demanded from tee to green.

Let’s see who this week’s best bets are.

Top Finishers at Real Club Valderrama

Real Club Valderrama Notes

• The course is a par 71 that plays to 7,533 yards

• The layout was designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr

• The fairways are famously tight and tree-lined

• Scoring is often very tough, especially when the wind is up

• It has bent grass greens

Contenders to Win LIV Golf Valderrama

Jon Rahm (+330) at BetMGM Sportsbook

The big man had mixed results at Valderrama when he played it on the DP World Tour, finishing second in 2019, but missing the cut in his other two starts. On LIV, he was T10 in 2024 and second last year, when one shot outside a playoff. His T16 in Korea ranks as his worst ever effort on LIV, and that tells you everything about how good he is. Expect better this week.

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Bryson DeChambeau (+900) at BetMGM Sportsbook

The big hitter was second on his Valderrama debut in 2023, when he’d been the pre-final round leader. A year later, he was T9, and he was T7 heading into the last lap last year before toppling back to T30. He flew home on a wet sail last time out in Korea with a final round 65 to grab third place and he’ll be desperate to find form ahead of this month’s US Open.

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Joaquin Niemann (+900) at BetMGM Sportsbook

A two-time winner on LIV in 2024 and a five-time champion last year, it was inevitable that the Chilean would win again, but Niemann has made very hard work of it. Between his last win in July last year and victory in Korea he went 16 starts and finished top five just twice. It was a remarkable dip in form, but he looks free of it so expect more wins sooner rather than later.

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Garcia the Week’s Banker

Sometimes, simplicity makes most sense. 

As mentioned above, Sergio Garcia has a tremendous record at Valderrama so why overlook it?

He’s 17-for-18 at finishing top 10, and his last 10 starts have all reaped top 10s.

That run includes all three of the LIV events on the course.

In all, he’s hit the places 10 times in his 18 starts, and four times he’s ended the week as winner.

He’s also shown good form, finishing second at LIV Virginia at the start of last month when he introduced a new cross handed putting technique that helped him hole lots of putts.

He’s the week’s banker at with BetRivers offering +2800 each way (five places).

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Gooch Can Contend Again

Talor Gooch has played Valderrama three times and he’s won twice. 

That’s a startlingly good record by any measure. 

He also finished second last week. 

That will make him an exceptionally good option as a winner for many. We should, however, never overlook the difficulty of defending a title.

But there is every reason for him to play well.

His prices are surprisingly attractive this week so the top 10 has real value.

Back him at +175 with Caesars Sportsbook.

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Meronk Likes Spain

Poland’s Adrian Meronk has always had a soft spot for Spain.

He would visit the country in cold Polish winters to advance his game as a teenager. 

He won there on the DP World Tour - and at Sotogrande which is only a few miles from Valderrama. 

His game has been limited this season but he found something last week, hovering around the top 10 for 36 holes before drifting back.

He’s a big price for a top 10 this week and is our long shot.

Back him at +1200 for a top 10 with Caesars Sportsbook.

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How to Watch LIV Golf Valderrama

• Tournament: LIV Golf Valderrama

• Location: Real Club Valderrama, Andalucia, Spain

• Date: THURSDAY JUNE 4 - SUNDAY JUNE 7

• How to watch: On the LIV Golf+ app, Fox Sports in the U.S., TNT Sports in the U.K., and the Seven Network in Australia