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PGA Championship Predictions: DeChambeau Can Strike it Big

Written by: Dave Tindall
Updated May 14, 2024
10 min read
  • Valhalla stages the event for the first time since 2014  

  • Rory McIlroy won that tournament 10 years ago with 16-under

  • Scottie Scheffler is the hot betting favorite

PGA Championship Odds

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PlayerOdds 
Scottie Scheffler+450
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Rory McIlroy+750
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Brooks Koepka+1600
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Xander Schauffele+1600
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Ludvig Aberg+1600
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Jon Rahm+1800
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Bryson DeChambeau+2800
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Collin Morikawa+2800
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Tommy Fleetwood+3300
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Max Homa+3300
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PGA Championship Picks and Predictions

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PGA Championship 2024 Predictions

PGA Championship Intro

The storylines come thick and fast at this year’s PGA Championship.

Can Scottie Scheffler continue the domination that saw him win a second Masters green jacket last month?

Can Rory McIlroy end his long wait for another major title?

Will defending champion Brooks Koepka win again and match Tiger Woods’ tally of four PGA victories?

Is this the week when Jordan Spieth lands the Grand Slam having already put his name on the Masters, US Open and Open Championship trophies.   

Or do we get a new first-time major winner? Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Max Homa and Viktor Hovland are among those hoping so.

The Jack Nicklaus-designed Valhalla in Kentucky plays host to a PGA for the fourth time.

Mark Brooks edged out Kenny Perry in the first to be held there in 1996 before Tiger Woods won an epic playoff against Bob May in 2000.

Rory McIlroy hoisted the giant Wanamaker Trophy at Valhalla in 2014 while many will also recall it staging the 2008 Ryder Cup.

The United States blitzed Europe 16.5-11.5 on that occasion while home players have won this event in each of the last eight years.

Last 5 Winners of the PGA Championship

Year Champion, nationality and winning score
2023 Brooks Koepka (United States) -9 Oak Hill 
2022 Justin Thomas (United States) -5 Southern Hills 
2021 Phil Mickelson (United States) -6 Kiawah Island
2020 Collin Morikawa (United States) -13 TPC Harding Park
2019 Brooks Koepka (United States) -8 Bethpage Black

Course Notes

  • Valhalla is a par 71 and measures 7,609 yards from the tips

  • The course was designed by the legendary Jack Nicklaus and opened in 1986

  • The greens are Bentgrass while it’s Zoysiagrass on the wide fairways   

  • Brooks Koepka’s total of 264 in 2018 is the 72-hole record

  • Numerous players including Tiger Woods hold the PGA 18-hole record of 63

  • Valhalla has hosted three PGAs, two Senior PGAs and the 2008 Ryder Cup   

Favorites to Win the PGA Championship

Scottie Scheffler (+450) at BetMGM

The World No.1 plays his first major as a dad after wife Meredith gave birth to a baby boy last week. Scheffler arrived on the property on Monday and will hope to continue his breathtaking run of form which shows four wins and a second in his last five starts. In four PGA appearances, he already has a second, a fourth and an eighth. 

Bet on Scottie Scheffler (+450) at BetMGM CTA icon

Rory McIlroy (+750) at BetMGM

If you’re a Rory fan hoping his hard-to-believe 10-year wait for a major ends here, the planets couldn’t be better aligned. The Northern Irishman won the PGA the last time Valhalla staged the event in 2014 and he returns with confidence sky-high after following a win in the Zurich Classic pairs event alongside Shane Lowry with a sparkling five-shot success at the Wells Fargo Championship on Sunday.

Bet on Rory Mcllroy (+750) at BetMGM CTA icon

Brooks Koepka (+1600) at BetMGM

Koepka is the modern-day king of the PGA after a trio of wins in the last six editions. Those victories, all by two shots, came at Bellerive (2018), Bethpage Black (2019) and Oak Hill (2023). With five major wins, Koepka now has one more than McIlroy and he bids for his sixth fresh from a victory on his latest LIV start in Singapore.  

Bet on Brooks Koepka (+1600) at BetMGM CTA icon

Back Bryson for the Win

On a course where big hitters should dominate, Bryson DeChambeau looks a standout candidate.

Koepka struck a blow for LIV when winning last year’s PGA and DeChambeau has the skills and motivation to do the same this week.

A brilliant six-shot winner of the US Open in 2020, the 30-year-old has finished tied fourth in two of the last three PGAs he’s contested.

He added to that strong record in the majors with sixth place at The Masters last month.

DeChambeau also likes Jack Nicklaus designs which typically offer more room off the tee.

The proof? His victory at Jack’s most famous course, Muirfield Village, in the 2018 Memorial. 

While you can make a strong case for many of the leading lights, the odds of 25/1 (1/5 the odds for eight places) for DeChambeau give him a huge each-way appeal (+2500 via bet365).

If the putter comes along for the ride, he can land his second major title.    

Thomas to Beat Clark

For this week’s 72-hole match bet, I’m taking two-time Wanamaker Trophy winner Justin Thomas to beat current US Open Champion Wyndham Clark (+100 via DraftKings).

Thomas, the winner of the 2017 and 2022 PGAs, is the +100 ‘dog here but I think he’s being underrated.

J.T. is a Kentucky native so gets to play a major in his hometown.

That advantage so nearly worked for another local star, Kenny Perry, when he lost a playoff at Valhalla in 1996.

Thomas looks in decent shape after a fifth at the RBC Heritage followed by 21st in last week’s Wells Fargo Championship where he ranked 6th for Greens in Regulation.

Clark has had some great results this season, including a win at Pebble Beach, but he missed the Masters cut and was a modest 47th at the Wells Fargo on Sunday.

And while he played brilliant golf to land the 2023 US Open, in his other six majors on American soil he’s missed five cuts and finished 75th in the other.

With two wins and a sixth, this is easily Thomas’ best major and the local angle adds to the belief that he can outscore his fellow American.       

Fleetwood to Land Top 10

Tommy Fleetwood is a regular on major leaderboards these days and he’s finished in the top 10 in five of the last nine, also posting 14th and 18th in that run.

Third at The Masters last month, he heads to Valhalla on the back of a solid 13th in the Wells Fargo.

While a first win on American soil continues to elude him, Fleetwood looks a great bet here to land another major top 10 at +333 with bet365.

How to Watch the PGA Championship

  • Tournament: PGA Championship

  • Location: Valhalla, Louisville, KY

  • Date: Thursday, May 16 - Sunday, May 19

  • How to Watch: Thursday 7 a.m.-12 p.m. ET (ESPN+), 12 p.m.-8 p.m. (ESPN), Friday 7 a.m.-12 p.m. (ESPN+), 12 p.m.-7 p.m. (ESPN)  Saturday-Sunday 8 a.m.-10 a.m. (ESPN+), 10 a.m.-1 p.m. (ESPN), 1 p.m.-7 p.m. (CBS). And all four days on Sky Sports.

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AUTHOR

Dave Tindall

109 Articles

Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.



Email: [email protected]

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