The RBC Canadian Open 2026 Predictions: Gain with Shane

With the third major of the season just a week away, plenty of the world’s elite have chosen to hone their games elsewhere ahead of the showdown at Shinnecock.

But four of the world’s top 10 do make the hop over the border to contest this long-standing event.

The Canadian Open was first played for in 1904 so, not surprisingly, ranks as the world’s third oldest national Open.

Last year, it moved to a new venue: TPC Toronto, a long par 70 measuring nearly 7,400 yards.

But despite a series of lengthy par 4s, the idea that it was tough didn’t play out as Ryan Fox and Sam Burns fought out a playoff after both had shot 18-under. 

Fox prevailed at the fourth extra hole to continue the excellent record of overseas golfers.

No American player has won this event since Dustin Johnson in 2018 and the betting suggests that streak will continue.

England’s Tommy Fleetwood is the favorite while 11 of the top 15 in the betting are European.

Nick Taylor is considered the most likely local winner. He landed the 2023 edition to become the first Canadian player to win his national Open since 1954.

• The event takes place at TPC Toronto for the second time

• This is the final tournament before next week’s US Open

• Former Canadian Open runner-up Tommy Fleetwood is the betting favorite   

RBC Canadian Open Odds

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RBC Canadian Open 2026 Predictions

• Shane Lowry each-way (1/5 odds, 6 Places) +3300 with BetMGM

• Michael Brennan to beat Michael Thorbjornsen in 72-hole match at -120 with FanDuel

• Tony Finau for Top 10 at +650 with BetMGM

Last 5 Winners of the RBC Canadian Open

Note: The 2020 and 2021 editions were canceled due to the pandemic

Course Notes

• The tournament will be held again on TPC Toronto’s North course

• It plays as a par 70 that measures 7,389 yards from the tips 

• The course has bent/poa putting surfaces 

• There are three water hazards and 48 bunkers

• Carl Pettersson (2010) and Justin Rose (2022) hold the tournament’s low 18 of 60 

• Rory McIlroy (2019) holds the 72-hole record of 258

Favorites to win the RBC Canadian Open 2026

Tommy Fleetwood (+1200) at BetMGM

Fleetwood continues to be a near-misser more than a winner. Last week he was tied for the lead with a couple of holes to play at Memorial but finished bogey-par to end fifth. And he should definitely have won this event at Oakdale in 2023 before slipping into a playoff and losing out to Nick Taylor. But with a pair of top fives in his last two non-majors and finishes of second, sixth and 21st in his three Canadian Open starts, the Englishman deserves his place at the front of the betting. It’s his first start at TPC Toronto.

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Matt Fitzpatrick (+1400) at BetMGM

Fitzpatrick is also making his course debut after finishing 20th at Oakdale in 2023 and 10th at St George’s in 2022. The latter came a week before his US Open victory so this event holds some positive memories. The Englishman was the hottest player on the planet across March and April after racking up three wins in four starts (Valspar, Heritage, Zurich Classic) but he’s cooled a little since. In fact, younger brother Alex (+3500 here) has outplayed him in the last two non-majors so perhaps both Sheffield siblings are worth a bet!

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Sam Burns (+1400) at BetMGM

Burns will be a popular pick this week and looks the American most likely to end the US drought in Canada. As well as losing a playoff here last year, he was fourth at St George’s in 2022 and 10th at Hamilton in 2024. Burns, who was seventh at The Masters, has been going along steadily since his Augusta top 10 but really upped it last week when fourth in the Memorial (5th Approach, 7th Putting). 

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Lowry to Continue Streak  

After nine non-American winners in the last 10 editions of the Canadian Open, I’m tempted to follow that trend.

After watching Rory McIlroy win this event in 2019 and 2022, perhaps it’s now the turn of Shane Lowry to hoist the silverware.

The Irishman is a regular at this event and has four top 15s in his last six visits. That includes second place at Hamilton in 2019 and 13th at this venue last year.

He should really be a two-time winner in 2026 but threw away victory at both the Dubai Invitational and Cognizant Classic.

Trying to get the next ‘W’ is proving frustrating but let’s not forget that Lowry is an Open winner with plenty of mettle and surely it’s just a matter of time.

With two top 25s in his last three starts and strong Approach stats at Memorial last week, he’s dropping hints and just maybe the change of scene from the US to Canada will make the difference.    

Back Lowry each-way (1/5 odds, 6 Places) at +3300 with BetMGM.

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Brennan to Beat Thorbjornsen

We landed another 72-hole match bet last week as newly-crowned PGA Championship hero Aaron Rai beat Gary Woodland by six shots.

This week I’ll back Michael Brennan at -120 with FanDuel to get the better of fellow youngster Michael Thorbjornsen.

Brennan was sixth at the Charles Schwab Challenge last time and performed superbly on the PGA Tour Americas in Canada last year.

In five events on Canadian soil across August and September in 2025 he racked up two wins, a fourth and a fifth.

And rewind to 2024 and he has a sneaky third place on this week’s course when it staged the Fortinet Cup Championship.  

Thorbjornsen is clearly a huge talent too but he doesn’t have that same pedigree on Canadian soil and his last PGA Tour top 10 was in February.

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Finau to Land Top 10

Tony Finau has finished second and fifth in his last two starts at the Canadian Open and is rounding into some better form again.

Last month he racked up the birdies to finish sixth at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and 29th in tough conditions at Memorial last week was solid too.

He looks good value at +650 with BetMGM to make the top 10.

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How to Watch the RBC Canadian Open 2026

• Tournament: RBC Canadian Open

• Location: TPC Toronto, Caledon, Ontario, Canada

• Date: Thursday, June 11 - Sunday, June 14

• How to watch: Thursday-Friday 3-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). Saturday-Sunday 1-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3-6 p.m. (CBS). And all four days on Sky Sports.