Ryder Cup Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds
- Europe has won seven of the last nine Ryder Cups
- USA has won two of the last three editions held on American soil
- Whistling Straits in Wisconsin will play host for the first time
Ryder Cup Odds
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Ryder Cup Predictions and Picks
Six of the last seven Ryder Cups have been won by the host and Team USA can triumph by three or more points here. Back USA -2.5 at +100 with DraftKings Sportsbook.
Justin Thomas has top scored for the USA in his last two team events. He can score more points (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook) than Jon Rahm, who had a mixed Ryder Cup debut.
Jordan Spieth has banked 3+ points in three of his last four team events. Back him at +120 to score Over 2.5pts with DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ryder Cup Profile
First contested in 1927 when the United States beat Great Britain at Worcester Country Club in Massachusetts, this will be the 43rd edition of the Ryder Cup.
USA has an overall record of 26 wins, 14 losses, and two ties but the dynamic of the match changed when players from Continental Europe were allowed to play for the first time in 1979. Since then, 20 matches have been played, with Europe winning 11 and losing eight.
That European dominance has been most prevalent since the turn of the century.
Starting with their home win at The Belfry in 2002, Europe has won seven of the last nine. They are the current holders of the Samuel Ryder Trophy after a comprehensive 17.5-10.5 triumph at Le Golf National in Paris, France three years ago.
But Team USA remains a tough nut to crack on American turf. They won 17-11 at Hazeltine in 2016, 16.5-11.5 at Valhalla in 2008 and would have won the last three at home but for Europe’s miraculous 14.5-13.5 win at Medinah in 2012 when Davis Love III’s men built a 10-4 lead midway through the afternoon session on day two. While the home advantage is a huge factor in this event, other angles can be misleading.
It’s often said the team with the fewest rookies wins but that just doesn’t play out: it’s 4-4-2 in the last 10. The betting market hasn’t been a great guide either. In the last 10 Ryder Cups the odds favorite has won just 50% of the time.
World rankings have also been a red herring. Seven of the last 10 Ryder Cups have been won by the side with the inferior side on paper so that could be a concern to Team USA who, in theory, has its best-ever line-up.
Europe has World No.1 Jon Rahm but the next 10 highest players on the world rankings are all American.
Whistling Straits is hosting for the first time and is a lengthy par 71 which should suit the Americans far more than the Europeans.
It was the scene of the 2015 PGA Championship and five Americans taking part this week made the top 20 in that event, four of those making the top 10. Of the Europeans, Rory McIlroy was the only noticeable finisher in the 17th.
USA Can Cash In
Bettors are bombarded with a plethora of stats at each Ryder Cup but plenty of it is just noise. The most reliable guide is a plain and simple home advantage and that’s why the United States is deserving -200 favorites.
But for the astonishing late twist at Medinah in 2012, the home team would have won the last seven Ryder Cups. That doesn’t seem to chime with Europe being so dominant in the last 20 years but it’s the reality.
Add in Whistling Straits being set up to even further benefit America’s power hitters and that win could become quite a serious one.
Predicting a correct score can be tricky, especially if the outcome is sealed early and the adrenaline is sucked out of the remaining matches still out on the course.
So a reasonable approach is to check the spread where USA -2.5 at +100 with DraftKings Sportsbook makes sense. That requires 15.5-12.5 or better and the USA’s last two home wins were by five (2008) and six (2012) point margins respectively.
Stricker captained USA to a 19-11 win over The Internationals in 2017 and while his opposite number, Padraig Harrington, is a canny operator, Europe looks to have too many weak or out-of-form links in the side to cope with the home onslaught.
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Thomas to Outscore Rahm
Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm are favorites to top score for their respective teams. JT is +550 to be the top USA Point Scorer while Rahm is just +300 to be top Europe Point Scorer. The two are also put in a Most Points Won matchup by DraftKings Sportsbook and it’s a -110 pick ‘em.
It’s virtually a given that both players will go into bat five times so there’s no advantage to be had there.
Rahm has had a stellar season on the PGA TOUR but missed the cut in last week’s Fortinet Championship while Thomas had a pair of top fours in the FedExCup Playoffs.
So it’s Thomas’ stellar record in team golf that gets him the vote. Last time in Paris, JT was the 2018 Ryder Cup’s top scorer with four points from his five matches.
He also topped the points-scoring charts in his latest start for the Stars and Stripes, garnering 3.5pts in the 2019 Presidents Cup, while only Dustin Johnson scored more points than him in the 2017 Presidents.
In short, Thomas is an animal in team events; expect more of the same here. By contrast, Rahm had a somewhat patchy Ryder Cup debut in Paris.
He didn’t manage a single point on the opening two days and although beating Tiger in the singles was big, the reality was that Woods lost all four of his matches in France so was out of sorts.
Thomas looks the bet to rack up more points than the Spaniard.
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Spieth Can Flourish
Jordan Spieth is the one I like in DraftKings Sportsbook’s Player Total Tournament Points market.
He’s been set the task of banking Over 2.5 and that’s definitely on the cards given his past exploits in team events. In the last two Ryder Cups, Spieth scored 3pts in Paris in 2018 and 2.5pts at Hazeltine in 2016.
In Presidents Cup, he’s accumulated 3pts and 3.5pts in the last two so has beaten the spread in three of his last four team events.
There’s every chance he’ll play all five matches this week while, as an added bonus, Spieth finished runner-up in the 2015 PGA Championship at this week’s course, Whistling Straits.
How to Watch Ryder Cup
|Ryder Cup Information|
|Location||Whistling Straits GC, Sheboygan, Wisconsin, USA|
|Time||Friday, September 24 – Sunday Friday 26|
|How to Watch||Friday 8am-7pm (Golf Channel), Saturday 8am-9am (Golf Channel), 9am-7pm (NBC), Sunday 12pm-6pm (NBC). All 4 days on Sky Sports|
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Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.
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