Valero Texas Open 2026 Predictions: Timing Is Right for Straka

With The Masters teeing off next week - hurrah! - a number of Augusta hopefuls are using this week’s Valero Texas Open as a chance to hone their games for the first Major of 2026.

But the two favorites for the Green Jacket - Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy - aren’t playing which means both have skipped the mini-Texas Swing.

That’s a surprise given that a warm-up in the Lone Star State helped them capture three of the last four Masters (Scheffler 2022 and 2024) and McIlroy (2025).

We’ll know the impact of that in Georgia next week but, for now, there’s the weekly puzzle to be solved.

It’s a tricky one and the front of the betting is bunched with the two market leaders - Ludvig Aberg and Tommy Fleetwood - as high as +1400. There’s no single-digit favorite this week.

TPC San Antonio has staged every edition of this event since first being used in 2010.

The Greg Norman design is a par 72 measuring over 7,400 yards and, in contrast to last week’s Houston Open, there’s an emphasis on finding fairways.

Strokes Gained: Approach is the key stat and the last three winners have ranked 2nd, 1st and 1st in that category.

By contrast, their SG: Putting stats were 6th, 24th and 41st.

Overall, it’s one for the ball strikers and controlling tee shots and approaches in the wind - it should blow around 18-20mph on Sunday - will be hugely important.

• This is the final tournament before The Masters

• Brian Harman returns to defend the title

• The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio has played host since 2010

Valero Texas Open 2026 Odds

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Sign up with BetMGM Bonus Code WSNSPORTS and claim your bonus: Get Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets*.

Valero Texas Open 2026 Predictions

• Sepp Straka each-way (1/5, 6 places) at +2200 with BetMGM

• Ryo Hisatsune to beat Nick Taylor over 72 holes at -125 with FanDuel

• Tony Finau for Top 10 at +750 with BetMGM

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Last 5 Winners of the Valero Texas Open

Course Notes

• TPC San Antonio is a par 72 that measures 7,438 yards

• Some of the rough is six inches in places so accuracy counts

• The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa and set to run on the slow side

• Corey Conners, Akshay Bhatia and Denny McCarthy hold the 72-hole record of 268

• Trey Mullinax has the 18-hole course record of 62

Favorites to Win the Valero Texas Open 2026

Ludvig Aberg (+1400) at BetMGM

This is the Swede’s first outing since he blew victory at THE PLAYERS Championship. Aberg was three shots clear at the turn on Sunday but came home in 40 to slump to fifth after signing for a 76. Still, that followed a third place at Bay Hill so he had an excellent Florida Swing and is one of the form players going into Augusta. He’s had a mixed time in this event with a 14th place in 2024 but missed cuts on his other two visits (2022 and 2025).

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Tommy Fleetwood (+1400) at BetMGM

Fleetwood hasn’t found the real spark which took him to victory at the TOUR Championship last year but he’s not far off after a run of 4-7-49-8 from Pebble to THE PLAYERS. He ranked 1st for SG: Tee To Green at Sawgrass so just needs the putter to heat up. The Englishman was seventh on his TPC San Antonio debut in 2024 but spiraled to 62nd last year after a final-round 81.

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Russell Henley (+1600) at BetMGM

Henley has been super-solid so far in 2026 without threatening to win. In six starts, he has a sixth (Bay Hill), an eighth (American Express) and three other top 20s. The most recent came at Sawgrass where he recorded positive figures in all the Strokes Gained categories when finishing 13th. A fourth place here on his last appearance in 2024 adds to his appeal.

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Side with Sepp

There’s often a perception that the game’s elite players aren’t worth backing the week before a Major.

The theory is that they’ll have one eye on the ‘big one’ and will be using the pre-Major tournament as merely a warm-up.

But the reality is very different.

In 2024, both Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy won the week before a Major - as did my pick here, Sepp Straka, in 2025.

The Austrian captured the Truist Championship the week before last year’s PGA Championship while he also had a third (Memorial) and a seventh (Scottish Open) ahead of the US Open and Open Championship respectively.  

Straka looks in the sort of form to shine again ahead of a Major after finishing runner-up at Pebble Beach in February and adding an eighth in THE PLAYERS Championship on his latest start.

His SG: Tee-To-Green and Approach numbers look strong, which is a requirement here, and he’s also gained strokes with the putter in three of the last four events.  

Back Straka each-way at +2200 (1/5, 6 places) with BetMGM.     

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Hisatsune to Beat Taylor

We landed another 72-hole match bet last week when Rasmus Hojgaard (28th) got the better of Wyndham Clark (MC) at the Houston Open.

This week I’ll take Ryo Hisatsune to beat Nick Taylor at -125 with FanDuel.

The man from Japan is enjoying an excellent season, his three top 10s including a second place at the Farmers Insurance Open.

He ranks 8th Tee-To-Green which is 33 spots higher than Taylor.

The Canadian is yet to have a top 10 this year and doesn’t have a great record in Texas (one top 30 in 11 starts).

By contrast, Hisatsune was fifth at this course last year and also sixth at Colonial in his last start in the Lone Star State.

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Finau for Top 10

Tony Finau hasn’t had a top 10 yet this season but he’s value at +750 with BetMGM to get his first here after finishes of 11th, 18th and 18th in the last couple of months. 

Finau has a third place to his name at TPC San Antonio and boasts a strong record on Greg Norman courses. 

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How to Watch the Valero Texas Open 2026

• Tournament: Valero Texas Open

• Location: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course), San Antonio, TX

• Date: Thursday, April 2 - Sunday, April 5

• How to Watch: Thursday-Friday 4 p.m.-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), Saturday 1 p.m.-3.30 p.m (Golf Channel), 3.30 p.m.-6 p.m. (NBC/Peacock), Sunday 1 p.m.-2.30 p.m (Golf Channel), 2.30 p.m.-6 p.m. (NBC/Peacock). And all four days on Sky Sports