Image for Dave Tindall Dave Tindall - October 14, 2022

Valero Texas Open Predictions, Odds & Picks

  • The Valero Texas Open is the PGA Tour’s final stop before next week’s Masters
  • Jordan Spieth is the defending champion after a two-shot win in 2021
  • The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio hosts for the 12th straight edition

Valero Texas Open Odds

The odds for this tournament are provided by Caesars Sportsbook. Click on the odds below to head to Caesars Sportsbook and place a bet.

Player Odds
Rory McIlroy +800
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Jordan Spieth +1600
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Corey Conners +1800
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Hideki Matsuyama +2000
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Abraham Ancer +2000
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Bryson DeChambeau +2800
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Gary Woodland +2800
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Si-Woo Kim +3500
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Tony Finau +3500
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Keegan Bradley +3500
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Chris Kirk +3500
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Valero Texas Open Picks

Chris Kirk was a standout on the Florida Swing and boats impressive course form at TPC San Antonio. Back him for the win at +3500 Caesars Sportsbook.

Course horse Kevin Streelman is in solid form and looks primed for another good week. Back him to beat Denny McCarthy in a 72-hole match at -130 DraftKings Sportsbook.

Brendan Steele has a win and three other top 15s in 10 starts here. After a return to form he’s worth a bet to finish Top 20 at +350 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Valero Texas Chris Kirk

Valero Texas Open Predictions

The Valero Texas Open takes place this year in probably its favorite slot – the week before The Masters.

With Augusta looming, the field quality takes an inevitable jump compared to when the event has been held later in April or March.

Jordan Spieth won here last year before banking a top three at Augusta so it can be a good place to build confidence.

That said, there are some obvious differences between TPC San Antonio and Augusta National.

While both are par 72s measuring around 7,400 yards, the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio has tighter fairways and slower greens.

It’s normally windier too and those infamous Texas gusts are due to be prevalent again this week.

Adam Scott captured the first edition held at TPC San Antonio but seven of the 10 winners since at the course were American.

There have also been wins for Aussie Steven Bowditch, Scotland’s Martin Laird, and Canada’s Corey Conners although here’s another nod to home dominance: 13 of the 14 players to have finished runner-up since 2011 were players from the United States.

Rory McIlroy is the one exception although his second-place came back in 2013 and this is his first start in the event since.

Rory clearly wants to sharpen his game having skipped last week’s WGC – Dell Match Play Championship where Scottie Scheffler took the win.

Scheffler sits this one out though.

Take a look at our How to Bet on Golf guide!

Kirk Ready to Get Back Winning Feeling

Chris Kirk was a relatively prolific winner on the PGA Tour between 2011 and 2015.

He racked up four titles and played his way onto the 2015 US Presidents Cup team.

But life got hard after that when he had to take a break from the game to deal with alcohol and depression.

Thankfully, he’s winning those battles and his golf game is starting to thrive again.

There was real evidence of that on the recent Florida Swing. Kirk was in the top two after 18, 36 and 54 holes of the Honda Classic at PGA National before finishing seventh and he followed that with a top five in the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.

He was somewhat spent for The Players Championship and missed the cut but the batteries should be charged after two weeks off.

Kirk resumes his season at a venue where he’s had plenty of success in the past so that’s why I like him for the win at +3500 with Caesars Sportsbook.

The 36-year-old was tied sixth in this event last year when closing 67-68 on the weekend and that built on three previous good performances in the last five editions: two tied eighths and a tied 13th.

His Strokes Gained: Tee To Green numbers have been strong in the last few months and that’s a better predictor of success at TPC San Antonio than SG: Putting.

Kirk’s last win on the PGA Tour came in another Texas event, Colonial, so let’s hope a return to the Lone Star State can inspire him to another.

Streelman Can Outscore McCarthy

Our good run of match bets continued last week when George Coetzee edged out Dean Burmester in Qatar.

That was based on course form and it’s the angle I’ll focus on again this week.

The bet is Kevin Streelman to beat Denny McCarthy over 72 holes at -130 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Streelman is a real course horse this week. He’s 6-for-6 at TPC San Antonio and has four top 15s in that run.

His best two performances have come in the last two editions: tied eighth in 2019 and tied sixth in 2021 (2020 was canceled due to the pandemic).

McCarthy, meanwhile, has far less eye-catching form here. He was 20th on debut, missed the cut in 2019 and had to settle for tied 34th last year. He’s only broken 70 once in 10 laps.

As for current form, McCarthy went 30-61-60-48 on the Florida Swing. Yes, he made all the cuts but it was fairly modest stuff.

He registered negative SG: Tee To Green numbers in all those events and a repeat of that less than stellar long game will likely find him out here.

Streelman, by contrast, had a strong Florida: tied seventh at the Valspar last time, tied 16th in the Honda Classic and tied 22nd at Sawgrass.

He ranked 9th for SG: Tee To Green at the Valspar and his driving is always a strength.

However you come at it, Streelman holds the aces so back him to win this duel.

Steele Can Crack the Top 20

For my top 20 bet, I’ll go with another player who marks this event on his calendar as a favorite stop.

Brendan Steele hoisted the silverware way back in 2011 in the second edition at TPC San Antonio and he’s made nine of his 10 cuts at the par 72.

Also fourth, eighth and 13th, that gives him four top 20s and that’s the market I like him for here.

The Californian was enduring a poor run but then really found his long game when tied 26th at Bay Hill (4th SG: Tee To Green) and 13th at Sawgrass (5th SG: Tee To Green) on his latest two starts.

That turnaround in Florida allied to his course prowess make him an attractive bet for Top 20 at +350 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Valero Texas Open Information

Valero Texas Open
Tournament Valero Texas Open
Location TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course), San Antonio, Texas
Time Thursday, March 31 – Sunday, April 03
How to Watch Thursday-Friday 4pm-7pm ET (Golf Channel). Saturday 1.30pm-3.30pm (Golf Channel), 3.30pm-6pm (NBC). Sunday 1pm-2pm (Golf Channel), 2pm-6pm (NBC). All 4 days on Sky Sports
Image for Dave Tindall

AUTHOR

Dave Tindall

77 Articles

Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.



Email: [email protected]

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