Valero Texas Open Predictions, Odds & Picks
- The tournament returns to the schedule after being canceled last year
- TPC San Antonio is in its 12th year of hosting the tournament
- Corey Conners captured the last edition to be staged when winning in 2019
Valero Texas Open Odds
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Valero Texas Open Picks and Predictions
Brendan Steele is a former course winner and completed an impressive Florida Swing with the third spot at the Honda Classic. Take him each-way at +4000 with bet365.
Jordan Spieth is back in form and has a strong record in his home state. He can take down Hideki Matsuyama in a 72-hole match at -125 with bet365.
Matthew NeSmith has six top 20s in his last 13 PGA Tour starts so looks a value bet at +333 for another on a course that suits his classy iron play.
Brendan Steele each-way (1/4 1-2-3-4-5) at +4000 with bet365
Jordan Spieth to beat Hideki Matsuyama in a 72-hole match at -125 with bet365
Matthew NeSmith to finish in the Top 20 at +333 with bet365
How to Watch Valero Texas Open
|Valero Texas Open Information|
|What||Valero Texas Open|
|Where||TPC San Antonio, San Antonio, TX|
|When||Thursday, April 1 – Sunday, April 04|
|How to Watch||Thursday-Friday 4pm-7pm ET (Golf Channel), Saturday 1pm-3.30pm (Golf Channel), 3.30pm-6pm (NBC). Sunday 1pm-2.30pm (Golf Channel), 2.30pm-6pm (NBC). All 4 days on Sky Sports|
Valero Texas Open
After being canceled in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the PGA Tour makes its 12th visit to TPC San Antonio. The Valero Texas Open marks the PGA Tour’s second straight week in the Lone Star State. It follows the grueling WGC Dell Match Play when winner Billy Horschel and runner-up Scottie Scheffler looked rather punch drunk in the final as they staggered through their seventh round of the week.
Horschel puts his feet up in preparation for next week’s Masters but Scheffler does get back on the horse; not a surprise was given that he’s a Texas boy and wants to support the event.
Dustin Johnson was supposed to be here too but the World No.1 has Augusta on his mind where he’ll be defending. The Champions Dinner menu doesn’t choose itself so DJ is putting his focus on Augusta National.
Scheffler is the second favorite in the betting here but the market leader is another Texan, Jordan Spieth. He’s shown plenty of good signs in recent weeks and is a past runner-up at this week’s course.
TPC San Antonio is a Greg Norman design although he received input from Sergio Garcia. Both are great divers of the ball so it makes sense to discover that it’s testing off the tee.
It’s a tree-lined par 72 that measures 7,494 yards, an increase from 2019 after 59 yards were added to the fifth hole to extend it to 401 yards. Approach play is another big factor. Looking at the last three editions and the champions – Conners in 2019, Andrew Landry in 2018, and Kevin Chappell in 2017 – all ranked in the top two for Strokes Gained: Approach when winning.
One final factor this week: there is a place at Augusta National up for grabs for those not already qualified. But only a win will punch the ticket to Georgia.
Steele Can Show His Mettle
Brendan Steele always has fond memories when coming back to play this event. TPC San Antonio was the scene of his first PGA Tour win in 2011, a year when he beat Kevin Chappell and Charley Hoffman by a shot.
Those two runners-up have since gone on to win the tournament themselves, showing that past course form counts for plenty at this par 72.
Steele followed his victory with a top-four in 2013, added the eighth spot in 2015, and was the halfway leader in 2016 before falling away on the final day.
The Californian was also well placed in the most recent edition when shooting a Saturday 67 but couldn’t follow through with his effort on Sunday. Still, he’s made eight of nine cuts at TPC San Antonio and has the current form to shine again.
On the Florida Swing, Steele went 3-for-3, posting a top 20 in the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, shooting all four rounds in par or better at THE PLAYERS Championship, and throwing in a pair of 65s (R2 and R4) to take third place at the Honda Classic.
There are lots to like about his game right now and the +4000 at bet365 is a strong each-way bet. Their place terms are 1/4 1-2-3-4-5.
Spieth Can Outscore Palmer
Jordan Spieth’s tail is up again. And he’s always worth considering whenever pegging it up in his home state. The three-time major champion showed that again when winning his group at last week’s WGC Dell Match Play in Austin before losing in the Round of 16 to eventual semi-finalist Matt Kuchar.
He’s made the top 10 in two of his last three strokeplay starts in Texas and has played this course well in the past too: in his last three visits he’s posted 30-2-10. With five top 15s in his last six events, Spieth is now a legitimate contender for next week’s Masters but don’t think he’ll be distracted.
He’s got an excellent record in events played the week before a major and that includes finishing runner-up in another Texas tourney, the Houston Open, before capturing the 2015 Masters. He’s up against Hideki Matsuyama in a 72-hole match at bet365 and my money is firmly on Spieth at -125.
This is the Japanese golfer’s first look at the course and, while producing some decent displays, he’s not had a top 10 on the PGA Tour since November.
Nesmith Can Nail Another Top 20
At the prices, a player who stands out for a top 20 is Matthew NeSmith: he’s rated +333 at bet365.
Doing the basic math, NeSmith has made the top 20 in six of his last 13 PGA Tour starts so has a strike-rate far better than the odds imply. He connected three straight when posting T7 at the Phoenix Open, T16 at Pebble Beach, and T20 at Riviera.
There was a little dip after that but he came back with T36 at The Honda Classic last time and could be on an upwards trajectory again.
This course, as mentioned, suits players with strong Strokes Gained: Approach numbers. Well, NeSmith is certainly an elite iron player and ranks 10th on the season-long SG: Approach stats.
He’s strong off the tee as well so the 31-year-old looks a good fit for TPC San Antonio.
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Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.
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