Valero Texas Open: Riley Looks Ready

• Most of the big names sit the week out to prep for Augusta

• TPC San Antonio, a lengthy par 72, plays host once more

• J.J. Spaun returns to defend the title

Valero Texas Open Odds

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Valero Texas Open Picks and Predictions

• Davis Riley each way in the outright at +2500 with bet365 (1/4 1-2-3-4-5)

• Aaron Rai to bt Will Gordon over 72 holes at -130 DraftKings Sportsbook

• Brandon Wu for a Top 20 at +350 with DraftKings Sportsbook

Scheduling plays a big part in the make-up of a tournament field and, in theory, hosting an event before a Major could be a positive.

After all, players still searching for something could see it as a last chance to hone the skills that could serve them well for the main event.

But with this week’s Valero Texas Open being squeezed between the WGC - Dell Technologies Match Play and The Masters, just one player from the world’s top 20 is pegging it up at TPC San Antonio this week.

That man is Tyrrell Hatton, who heads the betting at +1200, and perhaps it’s no surprise to see him focus on this week given how poor his Masters record is.

This event was first staged in 1922 but moved to its current venue in 2010.

This is the fourth straight time the tournament has been played the week before The Masters.

Arnold Palmer was a three-time winner while six of the last seven editions have been won by Americans.  

Course Report

TPC San Antonio is a 7,438-yard par 72 and was designed by (don’t mention it too loudly) Greg Norman.

Between 2011 and 2014 the winning score was single digits under par three times but in later years it has yielded far more birdies.

Corey Conners won with 20-under in 2019 and Jordan Spieth posted 18-under to take the title in 2021.

That’s in part due to widening the fairways and the course being set up to play a little bit more like Augusta. Not that it can ever replicate the incredible Masters venue.

Wind, as ever in Texas, is usually a factor and the forecast suggests it could gust at around 20mph over the first two rounds.

Saturday looks the calmest day despite a chance of rain but the wind could pick up again for Sunday’s closer.  

The Favorites

Hatton is not normally a name we see at the top of the odds but, at World No.17, he’s the highest-ranked player in the field.

His form is impressive too. The Englishman didn’t have a great time at the Match Play but prior to that was runner-up at THE PLAYERS Championship and fourth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

This is his course debut. 

Rickie Fowler needs a win to punch his ticket to The Masters so has extra incentive.

The American was tied 13th at TPC Sawgrass on his last strokeplay start and is definitely showing an uptick in form. 

Fowler has two top 20s from his three starts at TPC San Antonio. 

Canada’s Corey Conners and Korea’s Si Woo Kim are joint-third favorites at +2000.

Conners lifted the silverware here in 2019 and made the top 15 in 2021.

Kim won the Sony Open in January and has four top 25s in this event, including a top four in 2019. 

Riley Has Chance to Make Breakthrough

This has been an excellent event for those looking to become a PGA TOUR winner for the first time.

J.J. Spaun (2022), Corey Conners (2019), Andrew Landry (2018), and Kevin Chappell (2017) are all recent examples of players who made the big breakthrough here.

And up against a field short in quality, this could be Davis Riley’s opportunity to get that first ‘W’.

The 26-year-old has been touted for big things since playing in the USA’s winning Palmer Cup team in 2018.

He won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020 and the second of those came on this week’s course when he fired 16-under to score a two-shot success in the TPC San Antonio Championship.

Riley went close to victory when losing a playoff in last year’s Valspar Championship in Florida and his southern connections - born Mississippi, college Alabama - suggest this could be the week.

After some impressive performances on the recent Florida Swing when he posted tied 8th at Bay Hill and tied 19th at the Valspar, he’s well worth a bet at +2500 each way with bet365.   

Rai to Outscore Gordon

For this week’s 72-hole match bet, I’ll take Aaron Rai to beat Will Gordon.

Rai brings plenty to the party this week: current form, course form, and location form.

The Englishman was tied 19th in an elite field at THE PLAYERS Championship on his last start while his most recent appearance in Texas yielded tied seventh in November’s Houston Open.

As for this week’s course, Rai found it to his liking on debut last year when shooting a Saturday 68 to end the third round just three shots off the lead and in a tie for seventh. 

He eventually finished tied 29th after a 73 on day four but that’s still way better than Gordon’s TPC San Antonio form.

The Vanderbilt product finished 78th on his only appearance in 2021 and didn’t break par after shooting 72-74-77-73.

Gordon has also struggled in Texas, failing to make the top 35 in six Lone Star State starts.

Rai, who will hopefully be inspired by last week’s Corales Puntacana win from compatriot Matt Wallace, is a favorite but deservedly so.

Back him at -130 with DraftKings Sportsbook to win their 72-hole match.

Wu Can Land Top 20

There’s a simple case for backing Brandon Wu at +350 with DraftKings to make the top 20.

The American has managed just that in two of his last three starts via tied 14th in the Honda Classic and tied 19th at THE PLAYERS.

Also runner-up at Pebble Beach in February, Wu has some strong results in windy conditions and that should serve him well on his course debut.     

How to Watch the Valero Texas Open

• Tournament: Valero Texas Open

• Location: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course), San Antonio, TX

• Date: THURSDAY MAR. 30 - SUNDAY APR. 02

• How to watch: THURSDAY-FRIDAY 4 p.m.-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). SATURDAY 1 p.m.-2.30 p.m. (NBC). SUNDAY 1 p.m.-2.30 p.m. (Golf Channel), 2.30 p.m.-6 p.m. (NBC). And all four days on Sky Sports.