Valero Texas Open Predictions: Course Horse Horschel Can Collect

• The PGA Tour stays in Texas for a second week 

• Rory McIlroy is the betting favorite at +1000

• This is the final event before next week’s Masters    

Valero Texas Open Odds

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Valero Texas Open Picks and Predictions

• Billy Horschel to win at +3300 with BetMGM

• Corey Conners to beat Matt Fitzpatrick over 72 holes at -120 with bet365

• Alex Noren for Top 10 at +320 with bet365

Valspar Texas Open Intro

Back in its pre-Masters slot, it’s no surprise to see plenty of top names heading to Texas this week to hone their games for the year’s opening Major.

There are no rights or wrongs when it comes to teeing it up the week before The Masters.

Many believe playing four rounds and getting tournament sharp is the smart play.

Others, aware of the grueling walk and stifling intensity at Augusta National, believe it’s prudent to preserve energy and have a lower-key build-up away from the Tour.

In the former camp is Rory McIlroy, who has possibly tried every trick in the book in trying to prepare best for the one Major that has eluded him. 

While hardly a copy of Augusta National - nothing compares to that masterpiece - TPC San Antonio has some similarities.

It’s a par 72 with four par 5s, is fairly long and ball-striking is rewarded. 

Adam Scott and Jordan Spieth have both won at TPC San Antonio and Augusta National while Corey Conners, another with a good Masters record, is the course horse here after two wins in the last four editions. 

The Canadian will bid for a third title after those victories in 2019 and 2023 but the other six winners in the last eight were all home Americans.   

Last 5 Winners of the Valero Texas Open

*There was no tournament in 2020 due to the pandemic

Course Notes

• TPC San Antonio is a par 72 and measures 7,438 yards from the tips

• The course is new and only opened in 2010

• The downhill holes usually play into the prevailing wind 

• Corey Conners holds the 72-hole record of 268 in 2019

• Breezes will pick up from Friday after a calm opening day  

Favorites to Win the Valero Texas Open

Rory McIlroy (+1000) at BetMGM

Rory had a bright start to the year on the DP World Tour (second and first) but he’s not found his mojo yet in the US. True, he’s made the top 25 in his latest four starts but the best of those was 19th at THE PLAYERS Championship last time. He’s had contrasting fortunes in his two starts here with second place way back in 2013 but MC in 2022. Also, note that McIlroy has won the week before a Major no less than three times.      

Ludvig Aberg (+1200) at BetMGM

It’s a slight surprise to discover that Aberg did actually play here in 2022 when a virtual unknown to most golf fans. He missed the cut but such has been his progress, the Swede is pushing McIlroy for the title of betting favorite this week. Aberg has been in strong form in 2024, finishing runner-up at Pebble Beach, ninth at Torrey Pines, and eighth at Sawgrass the last time we saw him in action.    

Hideki Matsuyama (+1800) at BetMGM

The Japanese golfer will have his eyes on a second Masters green jacket next week and he has the form to make it a reality. He produced a brilliant closing 62 to win the Genesis Invitational and has since added 12th at the Arnold Palmer and sixth at THE PLAYERS. Matsuyama has played this event the last three years, posting 30th in 2021, withdrawing in 2022, and taking 15th last year.   

Back Horschel for the Win

Followers of Billy Horschel over the years will know that he often telegraphs his wins.

When he’s in form, the big results come and that’s exactly the case right now after three top 12s in his last four starts.

The former FedExCup trophy winner returned to form with ninth at the Cognizant and 12th in the Valspar while last week he fired 67-64 on the weekend to take seventh at the Houston Open.

Even more promising for Horschel fans is that this is a course where he’s enjoyed lots of success.

The 37-year-old was third in both 2013 and 2015, made the top four again in 2016, and added 11th in 2018.

This is Horschel’s first start at TPC San Antonio since 2019 so back on a track where he’s flourished, the +3300 with BetMGM can’t be ignored.    

Conners to Beat Fitzpatrick

For this week’s match bet, I’m taking double Texas Open champ Corey Conners to get the better of England’s Matt Fitzpatrick in a 72-holer at -120 with bet365.

Because of the pandemic, Conners had to wait two years to defend his title here when winning for the first time in 2019.

But he still made a good fist of it, overcoming a slow start to finish tied 14th.

And I’m confident he can do even better this time after recording progressive form figures on the Florida Swing: 41st Cognizant, 18th Arnold Palmer, 13th THE PLAYERS.

That course and current form converging trends make him a tough act to beat.

Fitzpatrick had an impressive week at Sawgrass when banking fifth place but his form has been in and out in 2024.

In addition, this is his first start at San Antonio and he hasn’t really produced anything of note in Texas before.   

Noren to Land Top 10

Alex Noren seems to be one of the most reliable golfers on the PGA Tour right now and that makes him good betting material for side markets.

The Swede has shown high-class consistency over the last few months, logging form of 9-19-11 heading to TPC San Antonio.

A strong Texas record including tied 15th here on debut last year suggests he’s worth a play at +320 with bet365 to make the top 10.

How to Watch the Valero Texas Open

• Tournament: Valero Texas Open

• Location: San Antonio, TX

• Date: Thursday, April 4 - Sunday, April 7

• How to Watch: Thursday-Friday 4 p.m.-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), Saturday 1 p.m-3.30 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3.30 p.m.-6 p.m. (NBC), Sunday 1 p.m-2.30 p.m. (Golf Channel), Sunday 2.30 p.m.-6 p.m. (NBC). And all four days on Sky Sports.