First Lady Predictions: In Italian Is Still Lightly Raced, and Seems to Be Only Getting Better

Odds for the 2022 First Lady at Keeneland taken from TwinSpires.

First Lady Predictions and Best Bets

Here are my plays ($50 in total)

$20 Exacta Box – In Italian and Regal Glory = $20

$10 Exacta – In Italian over Regal Glory = $10

Top Pick: In Italian (5/2)

Three-time Grade 1 winner Regal Glory tops a formidable trio for trainer Chad Brown, as they headline a field of six fillies and mares set for the $750,000 First Lady on Saturday at Keeneland.

A winner of three graded stakes this year, Regal Glory has become a regular in Grade 1 turf races at Keeneland. A solid second in this race last year, she came back this spring to account for the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley.

A 6-year-old daughter of Animal Kingdom, she has only been defeated once this year; that came against the boys last time when she was runner-up in the Grade 1 Fourstardave at Saratoga.

Brown’s other entrants in the one-mile grass affair, In Italian and Technical Analysis figure to be the top challengers to their favored stablemate.

The English-bred In Italian comes into Saturday’s test off an impressive front-running victory in the Grade 1 Diana this summer at Saratoga.

A 4-year-old daughter of Dubawi, she has yet to run a poor race in her seven career starts, with the Diana score being her best effort yet.

Technical Analysis, meanwhile, is a multiple graded stakes winner, who was second to In Italian in the Diana two starts back. Most recently the Kingman filly won the Grade 2 Ballston Spa at Saratoga.

Multiple graded stakes winner Princess Grace leads the remainder of the six-horse field, which also includes Vigilantes Way and Market Rumor.

First Lady Predictions and Race Analysis

Regal Glory

Narrowly beaten in this race last year when she could never quite catch her stablemate, she might be in store for a similar fate again. A terrific turf mare last year, the daughter of Animal Kingdom has been even better this year for trainer Chad Brown.

An impressive winner of a grade stakes race in California to end last year, she picked right up with three good-looking stakes wins this year, two of them in Grade 1 company. Her only defeat came when second last time against males.

With good tactical speed and oodles of class, she is always a threat. Perhaps her biggest threat is a fast filly loose on the lead, and she could run into that here with her stablemate In Italian. Still,she is the one they will all have to beat.

In Italian

As excellent a turf mare as Regal Glory is, I do believe there is one filly in here who has a big shot to beat her. In Italian is still lightly raced, and seems to be only getting better. Having raced only twice before this year, the 4-year-old daughter of Dubawi has quickly moved up the class ladder.

With impressive early speed, she earned her first graded stakes win in March at Gulfstream Park and has since been running against the big girls. She was beaten by Regal Glory two starts back, but that was a race where she had to stalk a very fast pace.

I look for her to be on the lead on Saturday, as she was in her big Diana victory. A similar effort here could well be enough to win her second consecutive Grade 1. She is the top pick.

Technical Analysis

The third of three from the Brown barn this Irish-bred filly has been very consistent since making her debut in November of 2020. She’s racked up four graded stakes wins in her last seven starts and has finished second in the three defeats.

This will be her second trip to Keeneland, where last fall she came to run second in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. It was a well-beaten second, though, behind Shantisara.

Her second behind In Italian two starts back was also less than a tight decision. As good as her record is, she must be respected, but I believe that both of her stablemates hold a class edge on her going into this Grade 1 test.

Princess Grace

This Karakontie mare represents the biggest threat to the Brown-trained trio. A five-time graded stakes winner of nearly $1.4 million, she looks to regain her best form which saw her win three consecutive graded stakes on the lawn to begin last season.

A sharp Grade 3 win at Parx in July made it look like she was primed for bigger things for trainer Michael Stidham, but she was the beaten favorite in a pair of graded stakes in Kentucky in her two most recent starts.

Still, they were both solid efforts which puts her in with a fighting chance on Saturday. I like the top two best, but his classy mare certainly has a chance to make some noise in the First Lady.

Vigilantes Way

After narrow losses in her first three starts of the year, this Shug McGaughey-trained 5-year-old broke through with a win in the listed Violet Stakes at Monmouth Park last month. It was a nice performance which reaffirms her good form.

Overall, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro has finished in the top three in six straight races, and nine of the last ten, with all of them coming in stakes company.

Having said that, she does look a cut below the best in here, however. Her only previous attempt against Grade 1 company came in last year’s Diana, where she finished seventh.

Market Rumor

Likely to be the longest shot in the field, this daughter of Afleet Alex was a winner of an allowance race over the Keeneland turf course back in April.

Since then she has run in four stakes races with a win in a listed stakes race at Ellis Park and a rallying third last time in the Grade 3 Ladies turf at Kentucky Downs being the best of the bunch. She was beaten by 1 1/2-lengths by Princess Grace in that last one.

All in all, she is a nice turf mare, who has won just a shade over $500,000 in her career. Unfortunately, she will be going against the top middle-distance turf mares in the country here. For that reason, I can’t recommend her in this spot.

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