We are playing it safe with today’s home run props as we back a pair of reigning MVPs in Arron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. The duo is tied for the most home runs in the league, and have put together massive totals in May. We’ll share why we like both to go deep again tonight, as well as one other home run prop bet we are locking in.
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Jake Burger has bounced back nicely from a brutal start to the season. His average has gone from .186 to .223 this month, and he’s recently found his power stroke, posting three home runs over his last six games. His best work has come at home, where his batting average is almost 40 points higher.
A Burger home run prop can be risky, but we’re locking one in today thanks to Bowden Francis (2-6, 5.54 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) being on the mound for Toronto. The 26-year-old has struggled badly over his last six starts, with an 11.94 ERA. A big reason for that ugly ERA has been his struggles with the long ball, allowing ten home runs during that span.
With Francis making mistakes, Burger will have plenty of chances to add to his home run total tonight.
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There is no safer anytime home run bet than Aaron Judge. The Yankee slugger has cooled off a bit in May, but still has eight home runs and a ridiculous 1.194 OPS. He leads the league in home runs, batting average, and OPS, helping New York enjoy a comfortable lead in the AL East.
Judge will face a struggling veteran on the mound in Tyler Anderson (2-1, 3.60 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). The Angels’ ace saw his strong start come crashing down over the last two weeks, allowing nine runs on 14 hits, three home runs, and six walks over just 9 ⅔ innings.
Anderson has been far better at home this season, but we expect his struggles to follow him back to LA tonight.
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Speaking of the safest anytime home run bets in the league, we are also betting on Shohei Ohtani to go deep again tonight. The three-time MVP is tied with Judge for the league lead in home runs (18), with 11 coming in May.
The Dodgers’ superstar is always a relatively safe home run prop bet, but we especially like his chances tonight with Tanner Bibee (4-4, 3.57 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) on the mound for the Guardians. The 26-year-old is coming off a stellar start against the Tigers, but will face a far more challenging test tonight against a Dodgers’ team that owns a .993 career OPS against him.
Ohtani has faced Bibee six times and has gone deep once on three hits.
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