Pitching matchups are fueling our prop bets for Tuesday. Even if we’re not fading a pitcher, we’re betting on hitters who are poised to take advantage of one who’s struggling. Of course, we also have one pitcher we’re targeting to succeed to help balance things out.
It’s been a rough season for Marsh, who is batting just .225. But that means you can get good value on him to get just one hit with the right matchup. Marsh has the right matchup on Tuesday against Spencer Strider and the Braves. Despite striking out in more than half of his career at-bats against Strider, Marsh is 6 for 17 (.353) with three extra-base hits against Atlanta’s ace. Strider is making just his third start of the season and wasn’t exactly in midseason form last time out, giving Marsh and the Phillies a chance to have success against him. Meanwhile, Marsh is coming off a two-hit game on Sunday, so a favorable matchup against Strider gives him a chance to keep it going.
Harper also has a good track record against Strider, going 6 for 20 (.300) with a pair of home runs against him. More importantly, Harper has been crushing it over the past two weeks. Over his last 12 games, Harper has raised his average from .232 to .267 thanks to seven multi-hit games during that stretch. Harper also has seven runs scored and 11 RBI during that stretch. He’s gone over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI in eight of those 12 games and feels like a safe bet to do the same on Tuesday if the Phillies can take advantage of Strider not yet settling into his season. We’re also confident in this bet because Harper’s numbers at home are much better than his numbers on the road.
With a 5.54 ERA, Francis has been anything but reliable this year after establishing himself as a part of Toronto’s rotation last season. To be fair, he got off to a decent start in 2025, but he’s allowed over 2.5 ER in five of his last six starts. The only reason he held the Padres to two runs in his last start is that he left after just four innings. Francis seems to be getting knocked around every time out, and there’s no reason to believe he’s suddenly figured things out. Even if the Texas lineup isn’t clicking, the Rangers have enough good hitters to take advantage of Francis, who is an obvious pitcher to fade until he proves otherwise.
The Astros have lost the last two games Brown has started, but he’s otherwise been a good-luck charm for them. To be fair, Brown has been more good than lucky. The Astros are 6-4 in his starts, and he’s been the winning pitcher all six times thanks to a 2.04 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. He should be able to get back in the win column on Tuesday against the Athletics. For what it's worth, the A’s are coming off a win on Sunday to snap an 11-game losing streak. But that doesn’t mean the A’s are going to find success against Brown and the Astros. Houston’s ace should be able to shut down the A’s and earn his seventh victory of the season against a team that’s struggled mightily over the past two weeks.
If Brown needs run support, Altuve should help supply some of it. He’s had multiple hits in four of his last six games, raising his batting average 21 points in a short period. Altuve also has a couple of home runs during that stretch, so collecting an extra-base hit to get him over 1.5 total bases is a possibility as well. Against JP Sears, who starts for the A’s, Altuve is 6 for 19 (.316) with three doubles, so this is a good matchup for Altuve, who is hoping to stay hot.
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