Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Fireworks Expected for Fourth of July MLB Props

Written by: Bryan Zarpentine
Published July 4, 2024
4 min read
Best MLB Prop Bets Today 2024 07 04

Happy Independence Day, everyone! The Fourth of July brings us a full MLB schedule with games starting at 11 in the morning and going all day. On this celebratory day, we wanted to stay positive, which means we’ve gone with all positive bets. In other words, we’re not fading anyone but rather picking all players we think will succeed. Our Independence Day odds are from Caesars Sportsbook, which is giving new users a risk-free bet of up to $1,000 with their first wager.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Astros vs. Blue Jays (1:07 PM, EST)

Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+245) at Caesars

Alvarez has homered in three straight games, so why not get behind him to keep it going? He’s gone 6 for 11 with two doubles during that stretch as well, so it’s not as if his power has been isolated. Alvarez is simply red-hot, making him capable of hitting another home run on Thursday. The kicker is that he’s 8 for 18 with five home runs in his career against Toronto’s Chris Bassitt. Not only is Alvarez red-hot right now but he has a favorable matchup to help keep his home run streak alive.

Framber Valdez Under 2.5 ER (-106) at Caesars

Alvarez has had some ups and downs lately, failing to get out of the fifth inning in two of his last four starts. But the left also limited opponents to two runs or less in four of his six starts in June. When he faced the Blue Jays in April, Valdez tossed 7.2 scoreless innings. Outside of Bo Bichette, who is 4 for 13 against him, Valdez has strong career numbers against all of Toronto’s hitters. With the Blue Jays scoring two runs or less in three of their last four games, there is every reason to get behind Valdez on Thursday.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Phillies vs. Cubs (2:20 PM, EST)

Cristopher Sanchez Under 2.5 ER (-137) at Caesars

Oddsmakers still have the over/under at 2.5 earned runs allowed by Sanchez despite the fact that he’s pitched 16 consecutive scoreless innings. In seven of his last eight starts, Sanchez has allowed two runs or less, including six starts in which he’s allowed one earned run or less. Meanwhile, the Cubs have lost eight of their last 10 games, largely because of a sluggish offense. Most of Chicago’s hitters haven’t faced Sanchez before, so his dominance is likely to continue at Wrigley Field.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers (9:10 PM, EST)

Christian Walker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+108) at Caesars

Walker is fresh off a 4 for 5 performance with two home runs and a double on Wednesday night. Naturally, we’re going to ride that wave of momentum and back him to have another big day on the Fourth of July. Even prior to Wednesday, Walker was among the hottest hitters in baseball. Over his last four games, he’s 11 for 17 with three doubles and three home runs. The kicker is that he doesn’t have to face a proven ace on Thursday but rather rookie Landon Knack. Walker is 2 for 2 with a home run in a small sample size against Knack. That’s also a good omen for Walker having another big game.

Will Smith Over 1.5 Total Bases (+106) at Caesars

Despite going hitless on Wednesday, Smith is still 5 for 14 with a pair of doubles in his last three games. He’s also collected six extra-base hits in a mere 30 at-bats against Arizona pitching this season, so he’s due for a bounce-back game. While the D’Backs are sending ace Zac Gallen to the mound on Thursday, this is just his second start back from the IL with his first being a glorified rehab start against Oakland. Plus, Smith is 6 for 19 (.316) with a pair of extra-base hits in his career against Gallen. This is a favorable matchup for him, allowing Smith to collect multiple bases one way or another.

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Bryan Zarpentine

Sports Betting Analyst

Online Sports Betting
Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Arts
Favourite Sportsbook: BetMGM Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
14 years
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