After a somewhat unsuccessful Thursday, we’re going to try a different tactic on Friday to close out the week. We’re still targeting a lot of prop bets with plus odds. But we’re doing that in part by targeting multiple pitchers to be named the winning pitcher. It’s a bet we haven’t used a lot this year, but we see clear value with two different pitchers on Friday.
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This is one of the first times we're targeting Chourio this season, as the 20-year-old has been one of the breakout stars in baseball this year. He’s also among the hottest hitters in baseball right now with a nine-game hitting streak. In those nine games, Chourio has gone over 1.5 total bases seven times, largely because he has four home runs and five doubles in his last nine games. But he also has three multiple-hit games in his last six games. On Friday, Chourio and the Brewers face Ryan Feltner, who has allowed at least six hits in three of his last four starts, so a red-hot hitter like Chourio should have a field day against him.
Since late July, the Rockies are just 3-7 in the last 10 games that Feltner has started. The Brewers have an excellent chance of winning on Friday, which is why it feels safe to target Montas to record the win. Since he was traded to the Brewers, Milwaukee is 5-1 in games that Montas has started. With Montas going at least six innings in three straight starts, he should be able to pitch deep enough in Friday’s game to leave with a lead and get the win.
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It’s rarely a good idea to target a hitter who’s facing Detroit’s Tarik Skubal. But Rooker is 4 for 11 with two home runs in his career against Skubal, so this is a surprisingly good matchup for Rooker, who is getting good odds because Skubal has such a great reputation. Plus, Rooker has a nine-game hitting streak and is free off a two-home-run game on Thursday. In fact, Rooker has had multiple hits in five of his last seven games while collecting six extra-base hits during that stretch. He’s simply too hot to ignore right now regardless of the pitching matchup.
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Valdez is the second pitcher we’re targeting to record a win on Friday. The D’Backs are just 4-6 in their last 10 games, so they’ve cooled down considerably. Of course, Arizona’s place in the standings gives Valdez great value in picking up his 14th win of the season. Keep in mind the Astros have won 11 of the last 12 games Valdez has started with the lefty being the winning pitcher in eight of those 11 victories. It’s hard not to like the odds of Valdez notching another win on Friday.
One more reason to like Valdez on Friday is the fact that we expect the Astros to give him plenty of run support. Surprisingly, Pfaadt has won four of his last five starts. But he’s also allowed at least three earned runs in four straight starts and six of his last seven starts. That’s problematic because he may not have the Arizona offense to bail him out against Valdez. Despite just getting swept in Cincinnati, look for the Astros to get back on track offensively back at home on Friday and put a few runs on the board against Pfaadt.
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