Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Limited Schedule Brings Creative Props

A limited MLB schedule on Thursday forced us to get a little creative with our prop bets. We had to target players we don’t usually look at and take a different approach with some of our bets. Nevertheless, we feel good about these bets and found some good value with them.

The odds for Thursday’s picks are from bet365 Sportsbook, which gives new users a choice between $200 in bonus bets for making a $5 wager or getting a safety net of up to $1,000 on their first bet.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Marlins vs Nationals (6:45 PM, EST)

Jake Burger Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105) at bet365

We wanted to fade Burger on Thursday, but there is no value for under 1.5 hits. However, targeting him for under 1.5 total bases gets us decent odds. This might be the first time all season we’ve bet under 1.5 total bases for a player, but this feels like the right spot. Burger is 0 for 3 in his career against Washington starter Mitchell Parker. He’s also batting .129 in September with just one extra-base hit. Burger is also hitless in four of his last five games, so he would need to break out of his slump in a big way to get over 1.5 total bases.

Jose Tena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) at bet365

If you don't know Tena, now is a good time to start learning about him. The Nationals acquired him in July as part of the trade for Lane Thomas and he has crushed it since being called up in August. He currently has a six-game hitting streak with four multi-hit games during that streak. That includes a pair of two-hit games on Tuesday and Wednesday. Obviously, he doesn’t have much of a track record against Miami’s pitchers, but Tena is so hot right now that he’s worth targeting with Thursday’s limited schedule.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Rays vs Guardians (7:15 PM, EST)

Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) at bet365

Diaz was 1 for 1 with a single on Wednesday when we targeted him, although he wasn’t in Tampa’s starting lineup. Nevertheless, he extended his hitting streak to four games, going 7 for 14 across those four games. That’s a good enough reach to target him to collect multiple bases on Thursday when he’ll presumably return to the starting lineup. Diaz is also 2 for 5 with a pair of doubles in his career against Cleveland’s Gavin Williams. That gives us even more confidence that he’ll have another productive game on Thursday.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Red Sox vs Yankees (7:15 PM, EST)

Nestor Cortes Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110) at bet365

Cortes hasn’t been the most reliable pitcher this year, although the Red Sox have the third-most strikeouts in the big leagues this season. That should give the lefty a fair shot at reaching six strikeouts, which isn’t that high of a bar. In fairness, Cortes has only reached that mark once in his last six starts. However, he has 13 strikeouts in just 10.1 innings against the Red Sox this season. Boston’s roster has a combined 25 strikeouts in 79 total at-bats against Cortes. That’s almost a strikeout every three at-bats, which makes us think six strikeouts isn’t out of reach.

Romy Gonzalez Over 0.5 Hits (-210)

Gonzalez is one Boston hitter Cortes has struggled to retire in the past. He’s 4 for 5 with two doubles and a home run in his career against Cortes, so he’ll surely be in the starting lineup Thursday. Over the past week, Gonzalez has gone 5 for 13, bumping up his average to .281. While there isn’t a lot of value from this bet, given his track record against Cortes and his recent performance, it’s a safe bet that Gonzalez can get one measly hit on Thursday.

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