Heading into Friday, we’ve made a profit so far this week and it’d be great to keep that going. For whatever reason, most of our prop bets on Friday involve NL West teams, meaning you might have to stay up late to monitor these picks. It wasn’t by design, but that’s where we found value on Friday.
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This is not a typo; we’re actually betting in Gomber’s favor on Friday. Last time out, the lefty delivered eight strong innings against the Braves, allowing just one run on five hits. He’s actually put together a solid second half of the season. Since the start of August, Gomber has allowed three runs or less in five of his seven starts. On the season, his ERA at home is actually a little lower than his ERA on the road, so pitching at Coors Field isn’t much of a factor. With plus odds, we’ll actually take a shot on Gomber.
Rodgers is a player to fade on Friday despite being one of Colorado’s best hitters this year. He’s gone hitless in six of his last nine games since the calendar flipped to September, batting just .167 this month. Rodgers has just one extra-base hit this month, so he might need multiple hits to get over 1.5 total bases in this game. The kicker is that he’s 0 for 7 in his career against Chicago starter Javier Assad, making it unlikely that Rodgers will break out of his slump on Friday.
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The Angels are just playing out the season, but Ward is putting together a great September. He’s batting .378 with an OPS of .1303 this month. If you go back to August, Ward has a hit in 20 of his last 21 games. Thanks to five home runs and two doubles, Ward has gone over 1.5 total bases in seven of 10 games in September. He’s also batting .343 with a .505 slugging percentage against lefties this year. That gives him a favorable matchup on Friday against Yusei Kikuchi. Ward is also 4 for 8 with two extra-base hits in his career against Kikuchi, so he’s a safe bet to stay hot.
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No matter the opponent, Rodriguez is a pitcher to fade right now, which is what we’re doing despite modest odds. He owns a 5.83 ERA over six starts this season, giving up at least three earned runs in five of those six starts. Thus far, the Marlins are the only team he’s been able to tame. While the Milwaukee lineup isn’t exactly clicking on all cylinders at the moment, it makes too much sense to fade Rodriguez until he shows signs of getting his act together.
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Cease is another pitcher who's easy to fade right now. He’s been excellent at times this season, but he’s back in a slump at the wrong time of year. He’s allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last five starts, including a start against the Giants last weekend. The San Francisco hitters should know him well, so Cease won’t have any tricks up his sleeve. The Giants aren’t an offensive juggernaut, but they did put together a couple of good games against San Diego last weekend, so they should have a good chance of pushing at least three runs past Cease.
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