Monday wasn’t our finest hour for prop bets, but we’re back at it on Tuesday. We focused on a lot of star players on Monday, so we’re switching it up and targeting second-tier players on Tuesday.
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Pivetta has had plenty of ups and downs this year, but he’s pitched better lately. He’s allowed just two runs over 12 innings across his first two starts in September. Pivetta has also pitched six full innings in three straight starts. Going back a little further, he’s done that in seven of his last 11 starts. The Rays don’t have the type of lineup that’s likely to hit him hard. In fact, the Rays have scored three runs or less in six of their last eight games, which means Pivetta should continue to pitch well and give the Red Sox at least six innings.
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Garcia isn’t the most obvious member of the Royals to target, but he might be Kansas City’s hottest hitter right now. He’s 4 for 10 with a pair of doubles over his last three games. More importantly, Garcia is 4 for 5 with a triple in his career against Detroit starter Casey Mize. That’s obviously a small sample size, but it’s enough to think that Garcia can stay hot on Tuesday. Given his power and good track record against Mize, an extra-base hit is a good possibility, especially with these odds.
Unfortunately for Mize, Garcia isn’t the only member of the Royals who hits him hard. Yuli Gurriel, Salvador Perez, and Bobby Witt Jr. also have exceptional numbers against him. Mize might be able to limit the damage, but he’s bound to give up plenty of hits and navigate around runners on base. He’s allowed six hits in back-to-back games with the Rockies and Padres doing the honors. The Royals are just as likely to collect half a dozen hits against him, especially given his track record against Kansas City’s key hitters. That makes Mize an easy pitcher to fade on Tuesday.
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Reynolds has quietly become one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the past week. While the entire Pittsburgh lineup was held in check Monday night, Reynolds has collected two hits in four of his last six games. He also has five extra-base hits during that stretch, so he’s locked in and making a lot of hard contact. The kicker is that Reynolds is 2 for 5 in his career against St. Louis starter Lance Lynn. That should position Reynolds to stay hot, and given these odds, this is a worthwhile prop.
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Typically, Gil could go either way with an over/under of 6.5 strikeouts. But let’s keep in mind the Mariners lead the big leagues in strikeouts. That’s enough of a reason to give Gil the benefit of the doubt despite reaching seven strikeouts just one in his last five starts. If we go back to July, Gil hit this mark three times in a stretch of four starts, doing so against quality lineups. The entire Seattle lineup has 13 career strikeouts against Gil in 32 total at-bats, which is another good sign that Gil will get to at least seven on Tuesday.
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