The final week of the MLB regular season is here. Oddly enough, there are just four games on Monday’s schedule. That has made it a little harder to find prop bets, but not as tough as you might think. We still managed to find a good collection of picks.
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Springer is batting .219 on the season, so he’s already vulnerable to hitless games. He’s also 0 for 10 in his career with five strikeouts against Boston starter Tanner Houck. The fact that he’s struck out in half of his at-bats against Houck is a sign he doesn’t see the ball well against him. Despite a good stretch early in September, Springer went hitless over the weekend, which is why he’s a good candidate to fade on Monday given his poor history against Houck.
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In addition to having a good history against most of Houston’s hitters, Miller has also been crushing it lately. He’s allowed five hits or less in eight straight starts, doing so against some talented lineup. Miller actually allowed three hits or less in five of those eight starts, including just two hits in his last start against the Yankees. He figures to be a safe bet to keep rolling and keep the Astros, especially with every game being a must-win game for Seattle.
Bregman has had a particularly problematic time in his career when facing Miller. He’s just 1 for 13 against Miller. To his credit, Bregman is coming off a three-hit game on Sunday, although he’s also hitting just .231 in September. He could easily go quiet against a talented Seattle pitching staff this week. Since we know Bregman doesn’t like facing Miller, this is a good spot to fade him, especially with +200 odds.
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We typically don’t target hitters unless they have a proven track record against the pitcher they’re facing. But we’re going to make an exception for Marte despite the fact that he’s never faced San Francisco starter Hayden Birdsong before. Marte has been that hot after hitting a home run in three straight games. Keep in mind that he’s 6 for 10 with three home runs and a double in those three games, so it’s not as if he’s just hitting for power. For what it’s worth, Marte has a good track record against several members of the San Francisco bullpen, so there is every reason to think that he will stay hot on Monday.
Canha is in an interesting position because he has a hit in the last four games in which he’s received at least two at-bats. He also hasn’t played since Friday because he only typically starts against lefties. That means he’ll likely play Monday with Arizona starting Eduardo Rodriguez. The problem is that Canha is 0 for 16 with six strikeouts in his career against Rodriguez. It seems unlikely that he’ll suddenly figure out how to get a hit against Rodriguez. Keep in mind that as soon as the D’Backs put a righty in the game, Canha is likely to be lifted for a pinch hitter. That means two or three at-bats is all Canha could get, making this a good spot to fade him given his past struggles against Rodriguez.
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