Best NRFI Bets This Weekend, June 10 - 11

Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians - JP France (HOU) vs Triston McKenzie (CLE)

My Pick: Under 0.5 Runs (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)

We love this NRFI bet for a few different reasons. The first is Astros starter JP France (1-1, 3.44 ERA), who has looked good in his first season in the big leagues. He has had some bumps but has been near unhittable on the road. He has three road starts, allowing 11 hits and two earned runs (both home runs) over 17 ⅓ innings. Considering those numbers and the fact that France has not allowed a first-inning run over his last three starts, this bet looks like an easy cover tonight.

Another reason we love this bet is Guardians’ starter Triston McKenzie (0-0, 0.00 ERA). The 25-year-old recently made his first start of the season after missing almost two months with a shoulder strain. McKenzie didn’t show any rust in his first start, throwing five scoreless innings while allowing one hit and striking out ten. On top of that, he dominated the Astros across two starts in 2022. He threw a combined 15 innings and allowed just five hits and one run. Expect more of the same tonight, leading to a quiet first inning.

The last reason we love this bet is that Yordan Alvarez will be out. The slugger has been carrying the Astros’ offense for most of the season, and his absence will undoubtedly be felt with McKenzie on the mound. Expect to see them go down in order in the first inning, making this bet an easy win.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies - Bobby Miller (LAD) vs Aaron Nola (PHI)

My Pick: Over 0.5 Runs (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)

If the Dodgers are playing, we take this bet almost every time. Their offense has been fantastic, thanks primarily to their loaded top-of-the-lineup. Their first two hitters, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, are top ten favorites to win the NL MVP. They have scored in the first inning in three of their last four games, and we expect that trend to continue tonight with a struggling Aaron Nola on the mound. 

Nola (5-4, 4.30 ERA) is off to a rough start to his 2023 campaign. While he was sharp against a struggling Tigers team last week, he posted a 4.93 ERA across seven starts in May. He has been walloped by talented offenses similar to LA’s and has been especially bad during day games (5.00 ERA). Considering how often the Dodgers have been scoring in the first inning, expect Nola to get in trouble early this afternoon. 

While the Phillies' offense is unreliable, they feature the best top-of-the-lineups in baseball. In the first, Kyle Schwarder, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner will be up against Dodgers’ rookie Bobby Miller (2-0, 1.06 ERA). Considering Miller’s inexperience and the quality of hitters for Philly, we love their chances of scoring in today’s opening frame.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees - Tanner Houck (BOS) vs Domingo German (NYY)

My Pick: Over 0.5 Runs (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)

One of the greatest rivalries in sports will be renewed again tonight, and we expect to see some fireworks early. One reason is Tanner Houck (3-5, 5.46 ERA), who has been getting hit hard over the last month. He posted a 6.08 ERA in May and stayed cold in his first start of June, allowing four runs over five innings against the Rays. Houck made one start against the Yankees in 2022, giving up three runs and five hits over 3 ⅓ innings. That, combined with the talent of the Yankee lineup, has us confident in this bet tonight.

Domingo German (3-3, 3.69 ERA) has had an up-and-down start to 2023. After a brutal April, he bounced back to post a 2.54 ERA in May. While that is impressive, he’ll be up against a talented Boston lineup with a .500 slugging percentage against him. 

Speaking of the Boston offense, they rank in the top ten of the league in batting average, runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. They have outperformed expectations and will have a great chance to get their offense going early tonight. Boston has hit him well in the past, and we expect that to continue tonight.