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Best NRFI Bets Today: Riding Strong Pitching Matchups to a Pair of Wins Today

Written by: Michael Savio
Published May 4, 2024
11 min read
Best MLB Bets Today 04 04 2024

Our best NRFI bets for today come from a pair of games in which some of the league’s top pitchers will be in action. The first is a battle between two disappointing teams, the White Sox and the Cardinals. The other is an AL West matchup between the Mariners and Astros. 

Below, we’ll discuss our favorite bet for both of these games. We’ll be using odds from BetMGM Sportsbook, which is giving new players who sign up using promo code WSMGM will receive a $1,500 First Bet Offer.

For more betting opportunities, check out our list of the best MLB betting sites and our curated list of MLB promos and bonuses.

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Best NRFI Bets Today: White Sox vs. Cardinals (2:15 PM EST)

Under 0.5 Runs (-125 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

This is the best NRFI bet of the weekend, and it isn’t even close. For starters, both of these teams have been horrendous at the plate. Chicago currently ranks twenty-ninth in batting average and dead last in runs scored. St. Louis hasn’t been much better, ranking twenty-sixth in batting average and twenty-eighth in runs scored. Combine that with today’s matchup, and you can see why we love this bet.

The White Sox will have Erick Fedde (2-0, 2.60 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) on the mound today. The veteran is having the best season of his career, thanks mainly to his improved control. After posting an ugly 1.63 WHIP across 27 starts in 2023, he has dropped it way down over his first six starts this season. While we aren’t sure if he can maintain this level all season, he will keep it going for at least one more game today.

The Cardinals will also have a veteran starting in Lance Lynn (1-0, 2.64 ERA). He has struggled over the last two seasons but appears to have turned things around in 224. While he isn’t lasting deep into games, he has only allowed a first-inning run to score once. That came against a very good Phillies lineup, but he’ll face a far softer challenge today. 

Best NRFI Bets Today: Mariners vs. Astros (7:15 PM EST)

Under 0.5 Runs (-150 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

These division rivals will square off in one of the best games of the day. They have gotten off to very different starts, with the Mariners leading the division while the Astros are stuck in the cellar. While both teams have strong top of their lineups, but we are betting on their aces putting up quiet first innings tonight.

The Mariners will have Logan Gilbert (2-0, 2.03 ERA, 0.80 WHIP) making the start this evening. The 26-year-old has been living up to the hype in his fourth season as he becomes one of the best pitchers in the AL. In six games this season, Gilbert has registered a quality start, with the lone blip coming against a Brewers team on a hot streak. He did not allow a first-inning run in all six of those starts. 

The Astros will turn to ace Framber Valdez (1-0, 2.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) to make the start. The veteran has been one of the best pitchers in the AL over the last few seasons and is off to another strong start in 2024. Valdez missed much of April with an injury, limiting him to three starts on the season. 

Valdez didn’t show any rust in his return to action last weekend, allowing two runs on five hits across five innings. Considering he’s facing a Mariners team that ranks twenty-seventh in batting average and twenty-sixth in runs scored, we expect an even stronger start tonight. 


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Michael Savio

477 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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