Best NRFI Bets Today: Fade a Pair of Struggling Offenses

With another pair of effective pitchers set to take the mound, we continue to fade the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins as both offenses will struggle to get into scoring position from the opening pitch. Later in the night, we turn our attention to the matchup between the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres as Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease look to carry their momentum into their first start after having a productive Spring Training.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins - Mitch Keller vs. Connor Gillispie (7:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After successfully cashing the NRFI in their matchup on Opening Day, we go back to the well for Friday's contest as both offenses are poised to struggle against another pair of productive arms. Especially after both clubs failed to address their offense throughout the offseason, indicating they may carry over their struggles into this year. At the end of the 2024 season, both offenses ranked near dead last in On Base Percentage, Total Runs Scored, and RBIs.

While Mitch Keller is certainly not the same caliber player as reigning NL Rookie of the Year winner Paul Skenes, the Pirates pitcher still possesses more than enough talent to neutralize the Marlins offense as he finished Spring Training with an ERA of 2.40. His walk rate does raise some eyebrows, but Keller was able to consistently leave the runners stranded as his low ERA indicates. Fortunately for his WHIP, the Marlins offense ranks 29th in Bases on Balls/Walks.

As for Connor Gillispie, positive regression looms large over the Marlins pitcher as he was a tad unlucky throughout Spring Training as opposing offenses maximized on their minimal scoring opportunities. Don’t let his ERA of 3.86 fool you, Gillispie excelled at keeping opposing runners off the bases as he also possesses a WHIP of 0.918. His ability to avoid contact will be on full display against the Pirates as their offense ranks near dead last in Team Total Hits.

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Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres - Reynaldo Lopez vs. Dylan Cease (9:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After making a late push for the NL Cy Young award last season, the San Diego Padres Dylan Cease looks to start the year strong by putting together a dominant performance against the Atlanta Braves. Especially with Ronald Acuna Jr still out of Atlanta’s lineup while recovering from a torn ACL. Without the former NL MVP’s production, the Braves offense finished last year ranked below league average in On Base Percentage, Total Runs Scored, and RBIs.

Even though the Braves still possess some productive batters in the top of their order, their struggles are poised to persist as Cease has excelled at avoiding contact while maintaining a high strikeout rate. At the end of Spring Training, Cease finished the preseason with a WHIP of 1.086 while averaging over one Strikeout per inning. Maintaining his high marks on the mound is vital as he is backed by an outfield who ranks just league average in Defensive Efficiency.

While the Padres ranked near the top of the board in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics, regression looms large as they face off against Reynaldo Lopez who has managed to carry over his high level of play into Spring Training. After finishing the year with an ERA of 1.99, Lopez is currently averaging a 2.08 in four outings. The Braves defense are also expected to bounce back in Defensive Efficiency, increasing Reynaldo’s chances of keeping a clean sheet.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Jameson Taillon vs. Merrill Kelly - After struggling to find his footing throughout Spring Training, the Chicago Cubs Jameson Taillon is in for a long night as he gets the unfortunate task of facing off against an offense who finished last year ranked near the top of the board in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and On Base Percentage.

• Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Charlie Morton vs. Kevin Gausman - With Charlie Morton and Kevin Gausman putting runners on base and in scoring position at an alarming rate, both high powered offenses will have the opportunity to open up the scoring early as their top of their orders possess an elite blend of power and contact ability.

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