Best NRFI Bets Today: Fade a Pair of Struggling NL Central Offenses

After surrendering a jaw-dropping five Home Runs in his season debut, positive regression looms large over the Milwaukee Brewers' Nestor Cortes as he faces off against a Cincinnati Reds offense who struggles with making contact. Before that takes place, we turn our attention towards the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins as a pair of productive arms are set to take the mound.

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Nick Lodolo vs. Nestor Cortes (7:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It was a horrific outing for Nestor Cortes in his debut with the Milwaukee Brewers as he finished the contest against the New York Yankees with an ERA of 36.00, a WHIP of 5.500, a FIP of 40.85, 4 Batters Walked, and surrendered 5 Home Runs in 2 Innings Pitched. A stunning display from Cortes against his former team, especially after finishing Spring Training with a respectable ERA of 3.27 while averaging over one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

Fortunately for Cortes, the Brewers pitcher will have an opportunity to get back up off the mat in a NL Central divisional matchup against Cincinnati as the Reds' offense ranks below league average in Team Total Hits and On Base Percentage. Other than NL MVP contender Elly de la Cruz, no one in the Reds' top of their order averages over one Hit per game. Better yet for Cortes and his recent lack of command, the Reds also rank 29th in Bases on Balls/Walks.

While Cortes floundered, the Reds' Nick Lodolo thrived as he finished his first outing of the season with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 0.833. Against Milwaukee, the Reds pitcher is in a favorable position to sustain his high level of play as he throws against an offense who also grades out poorly in Team Total Hits and On Base Percentage. Especially with his back end giving him a high level of support as the Reds ranks third overall in Defensive Efficiency.

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Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins - Hunter Brown vs. Joe Ryan (4:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-132) at BetRivers Sportsbook

After underperforming for two straight years per his preseason expectations, the Houston Astros' Hunter Brown looked like he was on the same track again as he finished Spring Training with an ERA of 5.25 and a WHIP of 1.750. That was until he managed to snap out of his slump and strung together a dominant performance as he averaged over one Strikeout and less than one Hit Against in six Innings Pitched against the New York Mets in his regular season debut.

Against Minnesota, Brown will have the opportunity to build on his momentum as he faces off against a Twins offense who ranks in the bottom four in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and On Base Percentage. Especially with Carlos Correa struggling to find his footing as the lethal contact hitter has generated a Batting Average of just .095 in six games. Without Correa’s production, the Twins' top of their order are vulnerable to slow starts in their contests.

Like the Twins, the Astros offense have also struggled this season as they head into Thursday’s contest ranked near the bottom of the board in the same previously mentioned metrics. Their struggles are poised to persist against Joe Ryan as the Twins pitcher excels at keeping opposing runners off the bases as his WHIP of 1.000 and FIP of 2.05 indicates. Expect Ryan to take advantage of the Astros' lack of contact ability and hold them scoreless in the first inning.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Antonio Senzatela vs. Taijuan Walker - With Taijuan Walker taking the mound, the underwhelming Colorado Rockies offense have the opportunity to play at a competitive level as the Philadelphia Phillies pitcher heads into his first start of the season averaging an ERA of 7.41 and a WHIP of 1.824. 

• Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles - Tanner Houck vs. Charlie Morton - Two underwhelming defenses take the field in the contest between Boston and Baltimore as their back ends rank well below league average in Defensive Efficiency, potentially leading to early scoring opportunities for both offenses to capitalize on.

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