Best NRFI Bets Today: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the New York Yankees

Negative regression looms large over the star studded New York Yankees offense as they are set to face off against Jacob deGrom who excels at avoiding contact and keeping opposing runners off the bases. Well before their matchup takes place, we turn our attention towards the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays as Hunter Brown gets the opportunity to shut down an offense who struggles with generating Hits.

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Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees - Jacob deGrom vs. Ryan Yarbrough (7:05 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After struggling to round back into form while dealing with numerous injuries, Jacob deGrom has started to hit his stride as the Texas Rangers pitcher has been dominant since the start of the year. In his nine starts, the former Cy Young winner is averaging an ERA of 2.29, a WHIP of 0.980, a FIP of 3.51, and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. The Rangers back end also provides him a high level of support as their defense ranks fourth in Defensive Efficiency.

While a matchup against the New York Yankees elite top of their order seems daunting on paper, it’s worth noting that Trent Grisham has struggled to make contact at a competitive rate as he averages less than one Hit per game. This helps lessen the chance of reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge getting someone into scoring position which increases the likelihood of deGrom escaping the first inning without conceding an Earned Run.

As for Ryan Yarbrough, the Yankees rotational pitcher faces off against a Rangers offense who ranks below league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Their inability to make contact bodes well for Yarbrough as he enters the contest averaging an ERA of 3.70 and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. Expect Yarbrough to string together a dominant performance and keep a clean sheet in the first inning.

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Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Hunter Brown vs. Taj Bradley (1:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Speaking of struggling offenses, the Houston Astros have severely underwhelmed since the start of the regular season as their lineup currently ranks below league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, Bases on Walks, and in On Base Percentage. Jose Altuve has been especially disappointing this year as the Astros lead off man is currently averaging less than one per game, a 0.210 Batting Average, and an OPS less than 0.650.

A matchup against Houston’s underwhelming offense gives Taj Bradley the opportunity to break out of his slump as the Tampa Bay Rays pitcher has struggled with keeping opposing runners off the bases as his WHIP of 1.342 indicates. Fortunately for Bradley, he possesses more than enough individual production to take advantage of the Astros lack of contact ability as he enters the contest averaging less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

Like the Astros, the Rays offense have also severely underwhelmed this season as they rank below league average in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics. Against Hunter Brown, the Rays struggles are poised to persist as the Cy Young contender averages an ERA of 1.43 and a WHIP of 0.829 while leading the AL in FIP. The Astros back end also excels in coverage as their defense ranks top-8 in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals - AJ Smith-Shawver vs. Trevor Williams - After a slow start to the year, expect the Atlanta Braves offense to build some momentum as they face off against the Washington Nationals Trevor Williams who currently averages an ERA of 5.91, a WHIP of 1.533, and over one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

• Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies - Taijuan Walker vs. Carson Palmquist - With Carson Palmquist failing to avoid contact and keeping opposing runners off the bases as his ERA of 11.25 and WHIP of 1.750 indicates, expect his struggles on the mound to persist as he faces off against a Phillies offense who ranks near the top of the board in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage.

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