Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Double Headers Provide Plenty of Promising Bets

While Thursday normally features a limited slate of games, a pair of doubleheaders means we have plenty of fantastic home run prop bets to choose from.

We’re taking two of those double-headers, as well as one that will be facing our favorite pitcher: Miles Mikolas. We’ll share who they are below, along with why we love their chances to go deep today.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Thursday, April 30

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Yordan Alvarez (Game 1) to Hit a Home Run (+320) at FanDuel Sportsbook

To be clear, this bet is for the first leg of the Astros' doubleheader against the Orioles today.

That being said, Alvarez has been one of the safest home run prop bets in the league with 11 long balls on the season, a blistering pace that keeps him sitting near the top of the MLB Home Run Leader odds. That success has extended across all parts of his offensive game, with the second-best batting average (.355) and the highest OPS (1.199) early in 2026. While much of that success has come on the road, there is reason to overlook that today.

A big reason why we are taking Alvarez in the team’s second game is the matchup against Orioles starter Chris Bassitt (1-2, 6.75 ERA, 2.06 WHIP). The veteran hasn’t looked right for most of the season, and he gave up two home runs over 5 ⅓ innings in his last start. 

The righty hasn’t had a problem with home runs over his career, but that hasn’t been the case when facing Alvarez. In 22 career matchups, the Astros star owns the advantage with a .409 average, five home runs, and 11 RBIs.

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Kyle Schwarber (Game 1) to Hit a Home Run (+360) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Phillies' DH may own an average below the dreaded Mendoza Line (.190), but it hasn’t stopped him from leading the team with nine home runs. We also remain confident that a big hot streak is coming, given that Schwarber has seen his average improve greatly over the last two seasons. A signature power surge from their slugger could be exactly what Philadelphia needs to solidify their standing near the top of the NL East odds.

Schwarber managed to put himself in the conversation for NL MVP as a DH, thanks to hitting 56 home runs and driving in 132 runs. It was by far the best season of his impressive career, continuing a trend of the 33-year-old steadily improving late in his career. 

The Phillies and their star will be facing Adrian Houser (0-3, 7.36 ERA, 1.79 WHIP) to start Game 1 of this doubleheader. While he is known for being a groundball pitcher who can be a reliable back-end starter, the righty has not looked comfortable with his new team. His ERA and WHIP are ugly, and Houser has allowed four home runs over his last three starts (14 ⅓  innings).

Once Houser exits this game, Schwarber will still see plenty of chances to go deep against an Astros’ bullpen that owns the highest ERA (6.27) and allowed the most home runs (26) in the league.

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Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+310) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Injuries have limited Juan Soto to just two home runs this season, but he is looking comfortable at the plate since returning from a stint on the IL earlier this month. It looks like the left-handed hitter's time to adjust since returning on April 22. We have seen his bat come alive in the last few games. If he continues to heat up and produce at a superstar level, expect his MLB NL MVP odds to shorten significantly as he makes up for lost time.

That includes smacking his second home run of the season against this same Washington team on Monday. We expect that success to continue today with Miles Mikolas (0-3, 8.49 ERA, 1.84 WHIP) on the mound for the Nats.

The veteran starter appears to be rapidly approaching the end of his career, but that hasn’t stopped Washington from trotting him out every week. His stats are awful, and the reason why he hasn’t lasted past 4 ⅓ innings in four consecutive starts. Home runs have also been a problem, with seven over just 23 ⅓ innings in 2026.

The Nationals' bullpen has been almost as bad as Mikolas, with a 5.11 ERA and the second-most home runs allowed (24) in the MLB.

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