MLB Home Run Leader Predictions, Betting Odds 2024: Aaron Judge’s Lead Grows

• Two years after his monstrous 62-homer season, Aaron Judge was the preseason favorite to be the home run leader in 2024

• Matt Olson led the majors in home runs in 2023 with 54

The all-star break is behind us, which means the race to be the MLB home run leader in 2024 should be heating up. However, somebody forgot to tell Aaron Judge that. With 35 home runs in his first 100 games of the season, Judge holds a fairly comfortable lead in the home run race.

He’s on pace to hit over 55 homers and could potentially reach 60 for the second time in the last three seasons. 

The number of potential competitors for Judge is quite limited. Shohei Ohtani stands the best chance, but even he’s five home runs behind Judge with more than half the season played.

It’s not out of the question for Ohtani to get hot and make a legitimate run at catching Judge. But oddsmakers continue to view Judge as the presumptive winner, as his odds seem to shrink every week.

Right now, Caesars Sportsbook lists Judge as the clear and obvious favorite. The gap between him and the rest of the field remains as wide as it’s been all season.

Nevertheless, there are still more than two months left in the season. In baseball, anything can happen, which is why we want to take a closer look at where things stand in the race to lead the majors in home runs this season.

MLB Home Run Leader Odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Click on the odds below and head over to Caesars to place your bets: $1,000 First Bet on Caesars.

MLB Home Run Leader Predictions and Favorites

The odds to be the home run leader in 2024 change just as quickly as players hit home runs. But we do our best to keep track of the players with the shortest odds of becoming the 2024 home run leader and give an overview of where they stand. Let’s look at the current players with the best odds of ending the 2024 MLB season with the most home runs.

Aaron Judge (-525) at Caesars

It seems like Judge knows that there are a few players who would like to make the home run race close and competitive but he simply won’t allow it. He bashed two home runs in his final three games before the all-star break and then hit another one in the first series after the break. For all intents and purposes, Judge controls his own destiny. Unless he gets hurt or his home run pace slows down considerably, it’s going to be difficult to beat him. That’s why his odds of -525 are the shortest we’ve seen all season.

Bet on Aaron Judge (-525) at Caesars 

Shohei Ohtani (+575) at Caesars

Oddsmakers continue to give Ohtani a fighting chance of catching Judge. At +575, his odds are lucrative but indicate that he’s not viewed as a longshot. Ohtani went off during the month of June, hitting 12 home runs to pull within striking distance of Judge. But he hasn’t made up any ground in July with just four homers with a week left until August. As mentioned, Judge is on pace to get to at least 55 home runs. Ohtani will have to increase his home run frequency if he’s going to match that number with late July and the first part of August being the time for him to make his move.

Bet on Shohei Ohtani (+575) at Caesars 

Gunnar Henderson (+800) at Caesars

This probably feels like a broken record at this point, but what Henderson is doing at the age of 23 is incredibly impressive. He has a chance to reach 30 homers by the end of July and is on pace to reach at least 40. Henderson isn’t yet in his prime, which is a scary thought. However, with just two home runs thus far in July, he’s falling behind Judge and Ohtani. There is a possibility that the 23-year-old is starting to get tired, as he’s not gone through a 162-game season in the big leagues multiple times and built up his endurance. That’s why it’s tough to envision Henderson improving his home run pace during the second half of the season and remaining a factor in this race.

Bet on Gunnar Henderson (+800) at Caesars 

Marcell Ozuna (+1000) at Caesars

Ozuna is almost at 30 home runs, so he isn’t out of this race yet. He’s actually hit more home runs than both Judge and Ohtani in July, which is giving him a chance. In fact, Ozuna has a pair of two-homer games in July, which has helped, even if that’s not necessarily sustainable. With Atlanta losing another key player to injury with Ozzie Albies going down, the Braves need Ozuna more than ever. If he can rise to the occasion, it might increase his home run total and give him a chance to stay within striking distance of Judge coming down the stretch.

Bet on Marcell Ozuna (+1000) at Caesars 

MLB Home Leader - My Pick

Shohei Ohtani (+575) at Caesars Sportsbook

As has been the case in recent weeks, Judge has little value from a betting perspective. Even if he seems like a lock right now, it’s not worth the risk that he could get hurt and lose his home run lead. Ohtani is close enough that even a 10-day absence could make this a tight race that goes down to the wire. Even if Judge doesn’t get hurt, Ohtani has enough power to make things interesting. While we fully expect Judge to win this race, it’s still worth taking a flier on Ohtani because he still has a fighting chance and has the power to make things interesting.

Bet on Shohei Ohtani (+575) at Caesars 

MLB Home Run Leader History

For as long as baseball has been played, home runs have been one of the most exciting parts of the game. Therefore, there has always been great interest in which players have the most home runs. Thus, there is betting interest in who will be the home run leader next year.

Past MLB Home Run Leaders

How to Read Home Run Leader Odds

With multiple candidates to be the home run leader, most players will have plus (+) betting odds. Therefore, the profit will be greater than the wager. For instance, a $100 bet on +500 odds will have a profit of $500. Of course, if there is a clear favorite, they may have negative (-) odds. This means that for a player with -150 odds, you will have to bet $150 in order to make a profit of $100.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the MLB Home Run Leader

When betting on the MLB Home Run Leader, bettors tend to overlook the process of choosing the right sportsbook. After all, different sportsbooks tend to offer different odds, different features, and different promos. Therefore, it’s a good idea to compare and contrast multiple sportsbooks before placing a bet.

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