MLB Home Run Leader 2021 Predictions and Betting Odds
It doesn’t get much better than a home run. That jog around the bases, the rare time in the middle of the game where you can sit back and admire what you’ve done. It doesn’t matter if it’s little league or the majors — everybody gets excited about home runs.
Each year in the majors there are always a few names above the rest. Those who separate themselves as the best power threats in the game. We’re here to plant our flag right now.
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Home Run Leader Odds
Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, updated on March 31, 2021.
|Ronald Acuna Jr.||+1100|
|Fernando Tatis Jr.||+3000|
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2021 American League Home Run Leaders
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Mike Trout is the odds-on favorite in the American League, in large part because he’s been the best player in baseball for going on a decade. In fact, he’s so well known for being an all-around player, that people underestimate how much of a power hitter he is.
In 2019, the last full season, Trout belted a career-high 45 home runs and that was in just 134 games played. If he can stay healthy for 150 or more, he should be able to get there again which will be near the top of the league.
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
If we knew every single player in baseball was going to remain healthy for 162 games, Aaron Judge would be the best bet to support. His power is unbelievable and the Yankees have the most hitter-friendly ballpark in all of baseball.
Every time Judge has played at least 115 games, he’s hit more than 50 home runs. The problem is, that was only one time in his five-year career. Judge played in just 112 games in 2018 and 102 in 2019. Even in last year’s shortened season, Judge played less than half of the season, appearing in just 28 games.
Supporting Judge is a bet on his health. If he can stay healthy, it’s a great play.
AL Long Shot: Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
Father time beats everybody except for two people. Tom Brady and Nelson Cruz.
Cruz, the ageless wonder, who turns 41 in July, just continues to keep on hitting. Cruz has finished in the top-10 of MVP voting each of the last two seasons and it’s large because of his incredible power numbers.
Cruz has belted at least 37 home runs in each of the last full six seasons and four times he hit more than 40. He’s one of the best power hitters of this generation and there haven’t been any signs of him slowing down. To get him at these odds is a very good value.
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2021 National League Home Run Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves
Ronald Acuna is already one of the 10 best players in baseball. By the end of 2021, everybody will know that. In 2019, Acuna Jr. nearly joined the 40-40 club when he hit 41 home runs and stole 37 bases.
When asked about it, he said he believes he could get in the 50-50 club. I wouldn’t doubt his power. Acuna can hit it out of any part of the park and coming off of a strange and shortened year where he wasn’t fully healthy, he was still tracking for more than 40 home runs.
The Braves have World Series expectations and it will be up to Acuna Jr. to take them there, this isn’t a bad bet.
Pete Alonso, New York Mets
Pete Alonso took the baseball world by storm with his power display in 2019, winning Rookie of the Year while leading the league with 53 home runs. Alonso is an old-fashioned power hitter.
He’s not going to have a great batting average and he will strike out his share of times. But he can change the game with one swing of the bat every single time he steps in the box and he goes up there with exactly that in mind.
The lineup is also more potent now than it was in 2019 with the addition of Francisco Lindor, so it will be interesting to see how that changes how pitchers approach Alonso.
NL Long Shot: Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
Disgruntled or not with his situation in Colorado, Trevor Story finds himself in the middle of the lineup at one of the best places to hit in baseball. The story has been one of the best shortstops in the league since he broke onto the scene in 2016, finishing in the top-12 of MVP voting each of the last three seasons.
During that time he’s been a genuine power hitter, hitting 24 or more home runs in each of his four full seasons and 35 or more in each of the last two. The story is worth a look as a long shot.
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Tony writes about baseball for WSN.com after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.