MLB Home Run Leader Odds 2025: Cal Raleigh Getting Respect in Tight Home Run Race

• Aaron Judge remains the betting favorite despite not being the home run leader at the midway point of the season.

• Cal Raleigh has finally overtaken Shohei Ohtani for the second-shortest odds to be the home run leader, as he’s the current MLB leader in home runs.

• Kyle Schwarber and Eugenio Suarez are doing just enough to hang around the conversation as long shots to challenge in the home run race.

Every year, one of the most fascinating individual races in baseball is the competition to lead the majors in home runs. Typically, some of the biggest stars in baseball are involved in this race, although younger and unexpected players sometimes crash the party, which keeps things interesting. All season, we’ll be tracking what sluggers have the best odds to lead the majors in home runs in 2025 and sharing our pick for the best bet at that point in the season.

MLB Home Run Leader Odds

The odds we’re using for tracking the MLB home run leader are from FanDuel Sportsbook. If you’re new to FanDuel, sign up for an account and claim the welcome bonus: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

MLB Home Run Leader Predictions 

Even with the All-Star Game two weeks away, we have quietly passed the midway point of the MLB season. As we head into July, Aaron Judge remains the favorite to lead the majors in home runs yet again, despite not being the current home run leader. Cal Raleigh’s 33 home runs put him ahead of the pack. Seattle’s catcher shows no signs of slowing down, which is why oddsmakers are finally showing him a little respect. He now has the second-shortest odds to be the home run king in 2025, making him Judge’s top competition despite Judge technically having to chase Raleigh during the second half of the season.

Meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani has started to fade in this race, hitting just seven home runs in June. Normally, one would wonder whether Ohtani’s recent return to the mound as a starting pitcher is distracting him. However, Ohtani hit four home runs over his final seven games in June. It was during the first part of June that Ohtani endured a long drought aside from a single two-homer game. But with four home runs in a short time late in June, Ohtani could be heating up. Plus, he’s just one homer behind Judge. With a big July and August, he figures to be side by side with Raleigh and Judge at the end of the season. That makes this a true three-horse race that anyone could win.

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MLB Home Leader - My Pick

Shohei Ohtani (+300) at FanDuel

It’s awfully tempting to favor Raleigh, who is clearly going to be in the race all season. However, as of July 1, Ohtani has just one fewer home run than Judge. Yet, Judge is such a heavy favorite, while Ohtani’s odds have grown longer in recent weeks. That means that Ohtani has the most value among the three main contenders, so he remains our preferred pick.

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How to Bet on the MLB Home Run Leader

Betting on the MLB home run leader can be a little tricky. It’s far more complicated than merely betting on the current leader in home runs, especially early in the season. Many players are capable of getting hot at some point in the season and hitting a lot of home runs in a short period. But being the home run leader is about maintaining consistency over the full season. Power hitters who can do that are the ones who end up being the home run leader at the end of the season.

Obviously, a player’s current home run total is an important consideration. But it’s also relevant to look at their track record. What’s the highest home run total of their career? Is their home run total steadily increasing year by year? Likewise, is that player at an age at which their home run total is likely to improve? The health of a player is also of great importance. It’s hard to lead the majors in home runs if you miss significant time with an injury. Therefore, a player with a history of injuries may not be the best candidate to be the home run king.

How To Read Home Run Leader Odds

With multiple candidates to be the home run king, most players will have plus (+) betting odds. Therefore, the profit will be greater than the wager. For instance, a $100 bet on +500 odds will have a profit of $500. Of course, if there is a clear favorite, they may have negative (-) odds. This means that for a player with -150 odds, you will have to bet $150 in order to make a profit of $100.

Where to Bet on the MLB Home Run Leader

FanDuel Sportsbook is among the best platforms for betting on the MLB home run leader or making any other baseball bets. In fact, FanDuel is the official betting partner of MLB, so they have the league well-covered in terms of available betting options. This includes the home run leader, which is a popular betting market.

If you don’t already have a FanDuel account, you can sign up for one and receive the welcome offer: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins. There is no promo code required for this offer. All you have to do is pick a safe bet for your first wager to make sure you collect your bonus bets.

MLB Home Run Leader History

As mentioned, there is always a lot of attention on who the MLB home run leader is during the season. This is usually because some of the biggest stars in the game earn that distinction. In recent years, Aaron Judge has been the one to beat. However, there are plenty of examples of a player who didn’t receive much consideration before the season becoming the home run leader, including Luke Voit in the shortened 2020 season or Matt Olson in 2023.

Thus, you never know what’s going to happen in the MLB home run race from one year to the next. For proof of that, look no further than a list of the 10 most recent winners.