MLB Home Run Leader Predictions, Betting Odds 2024: Aaron Judge Still Favored After Slow Start

• Two years after his monstrous 62-homer season, Aaron Judge was the preseason favorite to be the home run leader in 2024

• Matt Olson led the majors in home runs in 2023 with 54

The April weather hasn’t quite warmed up just yet, but balls are still flying out of MLB stadiums. Naturally, some of the usual suspects are hitting the ball out of the park. But there are also some surprising names showing a power surge early in the season.

Midway through April, Mike Trout is tied with Marcell Ozuna and Tyler O’Neill for the most homers in the big leagues. The likes of Pete Alonso and Mookie Betts are close behind. But there are a lot of surprising - and also unfamiliar - names who have already hit at least a handful of homers during the early part of the season. That could make the home run race in 2024 fascinating to watch.

However, the odds to lead the majors in home runs this year haven’t been shaken up just yet. At FanDuel Sportsbook, Aaron Judge is still the betting favorite despite a sluggish start to the season. The names close behind him are also among the players among the preseason favorites. Nevertheless, let’s check in with the current odds to lead the majors in home runs in 2024.

MLB Home Run Leader Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Click on the odds below to head over to FanDuel and place your bet. Don’t forget that when you sign up for a new FanDuel account, you can place a $5 bet and receive $150 in bonus bets.

MLB Home Run Leader Predictions and Favorites

The odds to be the home run leader in 2024 change just as quickly as players hit home runs. But we do our best to keep track of the players with the shortest odds of becoming the 2024 home run leader and give an overview of where they stand. Let’s look at the current players with the best odds of ending the 2024 MLB season with the most home runs.

Aaron Judge, +370 at FanDuel

It’s shocking to see Judge’s odds drop from +700 to +370 over the past couple of weeks. He’s fallen behind in the home run race early and isn’t even batting .200. Obviously, his power potential is still there. But it’s clear that Judge isn’t locked in at the moment. Even someone with Judge’s power doesn’t want to fall behind too early in the season. There are also lingering questions about his health, which is why he offers little value at this point.

Yordan Alvarez, +600 at FanDuel

Seeing Alvarez have the second-shortest odds is another surprise in the FanDuel odds. He had +1100 odds two weeks ago amidst a slow start to the season. Alvarez has started to turn things around. But it’s also worth mentioning that all four of his homers came in the span of five games. That’s not the kind of consistency that allows a player to lead the majors in home runs, which is why it’s tough to get on board with Alvarez as the potential home run leader in 2024.

Pete Alonso, +700 at FanDuel

After a disgraceful 0-5 start to the season, the Mets have gotten their act together with Alonso leading the way. After hitting four home runs in a span of four games, Alonso was named National League Player of the Week. He’s among the league leaders during the early part of the season and is on pace to hit around 60 homers. For some players, such a pace would be unsustainable. But that may not be the case for Alonso, who we know has 50-plus home run potential.

Mike Trout, +750 at FanDuel

Trout wasn’t necessarily on the radar to be MLB’s home run leader before the season. He’s 32 and has had trouble staying healthy for a full season in recent years. But hitting seven homers in 16 games is an easy way to change that. In a way, we shouldn’t be that surprised by his success. If Trout stays healthy, he’s still one of the premier players in baseball. However, his +750 odds are perhaps a little inflated with such much season left to play. Trout will have to maintain a high level of play for a couple of months before we can take him seriously because he’ll likely need to hit a career high in homers to lead the majors.

Matt Olson, +1100 at FanDuel

Olson isn’t quite following up his league-high 54 home runs in 2023 with a similar season. We always had reason to suspect that last year was an aberration for him. To be clear, Olson is off to a promising start. But he also has more than twice as many doubles as he does homers. While good for the Braves, it gives us pause when it comes to thinking that Olson will be able to defend his crown.

Shohei Ohtani, +1200 at FanDuel

As expected, Ohtani is crushing it as a hitter this season without pitching to distract him. The question is whether his power numbers will be enough. He looks more like a batting champ right now than a home run king - not that there’s anything wrong with that. That being said, there is no doubt that Ohtani is good enough to hit 50-plus homers. But at the moment, he remains a wild card in the home run race.

Kyle Schwarber, +1400 at FanDuel

A mere three home runs through his first 17 games is a little disappointing from Schwarber. The Phillies may like that he’s actually batting over .200 this year. However, Schwarber could potentially fall out of the home run race if he doesn’t pick it up soon. Despite hitting 47 homers last year and 46 the year before, it could take 50 or more to be the home run champ in 2024. It’ll be hard for Schwarber to get there if his power outage continues.

MLB Home Leader - My Pick

Pete Alonso, +700 at FanDuel

As of right now, nobody comes close to Alonso in terms of value. Of the players with the shortest odds, he and Trout and the only ones who have gotten off to fast starts in the power department. Alonso is far more likely to keep up his current pace and continue to hit homers with regularity. Similar to Olson last year, if Alonso can establish a lead in the home run race through the first month of the season, he’ll be tough to beat. That’s why he’s our current pick to lead the big leagues in home runs this year.

Bet on our pick at FanDuel Sportsbook and claim $150 in Bonus Bets!

MLB Home Run Leader History

For as long as baseball has been played, home runs have been one of the most exciting parts of the game. Therefore, there has always been great interest in which players have the most home runs. Thus, there is betting interest in who will be the home run leader next year.

Past MLB Home Run Leaders

How to Read Home Run Leader Odds

With multiple candidates to be the home run leader, most players will have plus (+) betting odds. Therefore, the profit will be greater than the wager. For instance, a $100 bet on +500 odds will have a profit of $500. Of course, if there is a clear favorite, they may have negative (-) odds. This means that for a player with -150 odds, you will have to bet $150 in order to make a profit of $100.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the MLB Home Run Leader

When betting on the MLB Home Run Leader, bettors tend to overlook the process of choosing the right sportsbook. After all, different sportsbooks tend to offer different odds, different features, and different promos. Therefore, it’s a good idea to compare and contrast multiple sportsbooks before placing a bet.

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