Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies Predictions, Odds, Picks

• Can anybody solve Zack Wheeler
• Wild card race heating up in National League
• X-factors to watch

• Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter
• Reds are 9-2 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter
• Reds are 11-5 in their last 16 overall
• Reds are 3-7 in their last 10 games as an underdog
• Over is 7-1-3 in Reds last 11 games following a win
• Over is 17-6-3 in Reds last 26 overall
• Under is 5-0 in the last 5 head-to-head meetings in Philadelphia
• Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite
• Phillies are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Phillies are 9-2 in their last 11 overall
• Phillies are 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record
• Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 home games
• Under is 5-0-1 in Phillies last 6 overall
• Under is 7-0 in Phillies last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter
• Under is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Picks

The Phillies are 9-2 in August and 23-14 in their last 37. The Reds got a much-needed win after suffering three straight losses to start their road trip. Both have plenty of offense but we can’t trust these bullpens to hold onto a lead so we’re going to do ths a little differently. Take the under on the first five innings, which is set at 4.5 and the Phillies money line.

Pick:

Phillies money line

Garcia’s 2021 record: (44-41-2)

How to Watch Cincinnati at Philadelphia

Phillies Ace Looking to Help Take Game One

The Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball for weeks. But prior to that, the main reason they were staying afloat and still in the playoff race, was because of their ace, Zack Wheeler.

Wheeler is without question the NL Cy Young front runner and it’s because seemingly every consecutive start is better than his last.

Wheeler ranks in the top 10 in all of baseball in almost every category: he’s tied for ninth in the record (106) and WHIP (0.99, is seventh in ERA (2.42) and leads baseball in strikeouts (181).

And he’s coming off the best start of the season when he struck out nine and threw a complete game, two-hit shutout against the New York Mets. He had hit a tiny bit of a funk before that — giving up four runs in three of the prior five games — but the Phillies are still 12-5 in his last 17 starts.

He will face off against Cincinnati’s Tyler Mahle who’s been very good in his own right. Mahle is 9-3 on the season, with a 3.78 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 148 strikeouts in 123.2 innings. Most impressively, his expected batting average against this season is below .200 — one main reason he’s only lost once since Maya.

Wild Card Race One to Watch in National League

Both leagues look as if their playoff representatives will come down to the wire and that’s especially true for these teams. Right now, the Reds are 3.5 games behind the San Diego Padres for the final Wild Card spot in the NL.

The Phillies are technically on top of the NL East — but they’re in a virtual tie with just a 0.5 game lead over New York and a one-game lead over Atlanta.

If they were to get leap-frogged by either of those teams, which is an extremely realistic proposition, they would then be looking up at the Reds in the Wild Card chase, who enter play 1.5 games ahead of Philly.

The Reds have been relying on their potent offense to keep this postseason push going along. They rank third in baseball in on-base percentage (.335) and fifth in batting average (.253), slugging percentage (.433) and runs scored (586).

Their starting pitching staff, like Mahle, has been good, ranking sixth in quality starts (46). However, because of their spotty bullpen, the Reds rank 19th in baseball in ERA (4.48) and 25th in WHIP (1.38).

One team with a worse bullpen than Cincinnati? Philadelphia. The Phillies bullpen has been “improved” this month, and it still has a 4.13 ERAA which is 20th in the MLB. It doesn’t help that Ian Kennedy — the only bullpen arm Dave Dombrowski acquired at the trade deadline — gave up three home runs in his first four starts. The bullpen is likely to be both of these team’s eventual downfall.

X-Factors to Watch

Our x-factor for the Reds is Tyler Naquin. He’s quietly been hot the last week, hitting .308 (4-of-13) with two walks and just one strikeout. He has a home run, seven RBIs and five runs scored during that stretch and adds an element of speed this lineup’s other big hitters don’t have.

For the Phillies, nobody has been as hot as Didi Gregorius. The shortstop is 6-of-13 over the last week with a double, triple, home run and team-best 1.456 OPS.