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Aaron Judge homered twice on Sunday for the Yankees
Shane Bieber has a 0.83 WHIP in two starts this season
Both teams enter with six wins on the season
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
PICK: Yankees ML (+128)
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The New York Yankees will travel to Cleveland to face the Guardians on Monday. Cleveland has the pitching advantage in this game, but New York has been blasting the ball behind Aaron Judge. The three-game set will begin with Domingo German for New York and Shane Bieber for Cleveland on the bump.
The Yankees will enter this game as short underdogs on the moneyline. The value at +128 is excellent, as New York’s lineup knows how to navigate strong pitchers like Bieber. New York’s run line also is appealing, as you can grab the Yankees to be within a run for -162. Any run line underdog with a dangerous offense is great because they enter the game up one based on the line.
We recommend going with New York on the moneyline in this spot. The plus money is appealing for the Yankees coming off a series win over Baltimore. Although, if you want to make a slightly safer play, but pay more juice, take New York at +1.5.
The Guardians have won with pitching this season. The team can hit the baseball, but it’s normal to see low-scoring games when Bieber pitches. Cleveland’s formula under Terry Francona is straightforward. The starters put together quality outings, and the bullpen closes the door down the stretch. Pitchers like Bieber make a manager very happy because they tend to dominate.
The reason the Yankees, with all their power, are still underdogs on the road is that they’re facing a Cy Young-caliber wing. Bieber has made two starts this year, totaling 12 innings on the mound. He has allowed nine hits, struck out ten, and walked one in his appearances. As great as Bieber has been, he still hasn’t won a game yet. This is due to Cleveland’s consistent inability to drive the baseball. The Guardians have only hit five homers in the year, which is last in baseball.
The Yankees are fifth in baseball with 13 bombs on the year. They will need a few with German on the mound, who has been rocked thus far in 2023. German has shown signs of promise over his career, but consistency is a significant issue for the pitcher. We can get behind German for plus money with his strikeout pitches.
We will trust the Bronx Bombers in a difficult pitching matchup on Monday. Judge is off to a great start, earning his long-term deal, and the supporting cast is also coming up with big hits. The Yankees need to neutralize Bieber, but they have the players to make this happen.
The Yankees will enter their three-game series with Cleveland looking to stay hot. New York took two of three games from Baltimore, scoring 15 runs and multiple homers. The Yankees are 6-3 through their first three series of the season.
They have been tested by good teams early with the Giants, Phillies, and Orioles. San Francisco is always pesky, and Philadelphia is in a position to make a deep run in the National League despite a slow start. Baltimore is a middle-of-the-road team, but their young talent is sensational and will be a threat in the AL East for years to come.
Judge is slashing .364/.436/.758 through nine games, which couldn’t be a better start for the reigning MVP. He has played in all nine games thus far and has set the tone daily. New York’s also getting a lot of power out of Giancarlo Stanton, who has three homers in eight starts this season.
One of the hottest players for New York thus far has been Gleyber Torres. Torres is hitting .357 with a .514 OBP in 28 at-bats. His eye at the plate has been remarkable and shows in his statistics. Torres must stay hot to set the Yankees up for success in their series against the Guardians.
The Guardians enter their series against the Yankees with a lot of momentum. They lost two of three games to the Mariners, but their lone win was on Sunday in extra innings. Cleveland pulled off a 7-6 win in 12 innings, so they should have some confidence. Although, this game did take a toll on the Guardians' bullpen, which is one of the team’s strengths. If they have a chance throughout this series, it’s with Bieber on the mound, but the All-Star will need some help.
Cleveland’s offense has a combined .330 OBP, which is the same as the Yankees. Nevertheless, OBP doesn’t completely win games in 2023. Launch angle is such a buzzword in 2023 because teams want home-run hitters, and Cleveland doesn’t have many of those players. Jose Ramirez is the one that comes to mind, but he is still looking for his first big swing of the year.
Ramirez is slashing .300/.408/.450, but the ball isn’t leaving the yard. Josh Naylor has been the primary power hitter for the Guardians, but he is no Aaron Judge. Naylor has two homers on the year but doesn’t hit for average. Cleveland’s offense is good enough to win the AL Central, but if the Yankees can hit, the Guardians won’t be able to keep up in this series.
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Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Game Time & Date: APR. 10 @ 6:10 p.m ET
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Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.More info on Tanner Kern
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