Sparks 300 Predictions: Don’t Discount Noah Gragson’s Chances of Setting an Xfinity Record

Written by: Reid Spencer
Updated October 14, 2022
4 min read
  • Noah Gragson could post a record fifth straight NASCAR Xfinity Series victory.
  • Could Anthony Alfredo be a sleeper in the season’s most unpredictable race?
  • Chastened Ty Gibbs could get a measure of redemption at NASCAR’s biggest track.

Sparks 300 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook. Click on the odds below and place your bet!

Winner Odds
Noah Gragson +700
Austin Hill +800
AJ Allmendinger +800
Ty Gibbs +800
Trevor Bayne +800
Josh Berry +1000
Justin Allgaier +1000
Daniel Hemric +1500
Brandon Jones +1500
Sheldon Creed +1500
Riley Herbst +1500

Our Picks for the Sparks 300

Noah Gragson to win the race at +700

Anthony Alfredo to finish in the top three (+1000) and top five (+500)

Trevor Bayne to beat AJ Allmendinger head-to head at -105

Sparks 300 Predictions Noah Gragson

Sparks 300 Predictions

Don’t Discount Noah Gragson’s Chances of Setting an Xfinity Record

The Sparks 300 is aptly named. Given the high-speed, close-quarters nature of the racing at Talladega Superspeedway, multicar wrecks are likely, and fireworks are all but assured.

Noah Gragson can create some pyrotechnics of his own if he wins the Sparks 300. Last weekend, Gragson tied Sam Ard’s 1983 Xfinity Series record with his fourth straight victory. A fifth would open a new frontier.

Don’t think it can’t happen, even though the law of averages clearly weighs against the potential achievement. Gragson has the highest driver rating at Talladega among those who entered in the race (100.3).

He’s also third among active drivers in average running position (11.4) at the 2.66-mile track. In seven starts there, Gragson boasts one victory, three top fives and five top 10s, for an average finish for 9.4.

That’s why we’re picking him to accomplish the unlikely and win a fifth straight Xfinity race (+700 via DraftKings Sportsbook).

The Real Sleeper in Saturday’s Race Just Might Be Anthony Alfredo

You’re not alone if you’re not familiar with Xfinity Series driver Anthony Alfredo, who perhaps is best known in the NASCAR garage for his amusing nickname “Fast Pasta.”

Alfredo has never won a NASCAR national series race. In 46 Xfinity races, he has three top fives to his credit, none at superspeedways.

In three starts at Talladega, however, Alfredo has a pair of sixth-place finishes and a 12th. He has completed all 350 scheduled laps at the track, no mean achievement.

Among drivers entered in Saturday’s race, Alfredo is second only to Jeb Burton in average running position at 10.554.

So take a shot on a relatively obscure driver and bet on Alfredo to finish in the top three (+1000) and top five (+500).

Get a $1,000 deposit bonus right now at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chastened Ty Gibbs Could Get a Measure of Redemption at Talladega

It hasn’t been a good week for Ty Gibbs. Yes, he finished third in last Saturday’s Xfinity Series race at Texas Motor Speedway.

But in Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series event—while substituting for injured Kurt Busch—Gibbs door-slammed Ty Dillon on pit road, endangering crew members in a nearby pit stall.

That earned Gibbs a $75,000 fine on Tuesday when NASCAR officials met to review the weekend’s proceedings.

Gibbs, who is tied for second favorite at DraftKings (+800) could earn a modicum of redemption with a win on Saturday, but we don’t think it’s in the cards. In his only previous Talladega start, Gibbs wrecked out in 35th place.

We prefer betting on 2011 Daytona 500 winner Trevor Bayne, Gibbs’ teammate, to beat AJ Allmendinger head-to-head at -105. Bayne is sixth all-time in Xfinity driver rating at Talladega, 9.9 points ahead of Allmendinger, who is 17th.

How to Watch the Sparks 300

Race Sparks 300 NASCAR Xfinity Series race
Location Talladega Superspeedway
Time Saturday, October 1, 4 p.m. ET
How to Watch USA
Image for Reid Spencer

Reid Spencer

NASCAR Betting Analyst

Betting Analyst
Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor in Drama
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
48 years
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