XPEL 225 (Camping World Truck Series) Predictions, Picks, Odds

Written by: Reid Spencer
Updated October 14, 2022
4 min read
  • Sheldon Creed won the pole for Saturday’s race, but there’s a problem…
  • Kyle Busch is racing his own truck, and that’s a problem for everyone else.
  • Ben Rhodes seems to have discovered the secret to road course racing.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook

Driver Odds
Kyle Busch -140
Sheldon Creed +650
John Hunter Nemechek +700
Alex Bowman +1200
Kaz Grala +1200
Grant Enfinger +1500
Ben Rhodes +1600
Zane Smith +1600
Chandler Smith +2000
Tyler Ankrum +2000

Xpel 225 Camping World Truck Series Kyle Busch

With Saturday’s XPEL 225, the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series visits a road course for the first time this season. But this race will bear no resemblance to last year’s.

The inaugural 2021 event was drenched with rain, and Todd Gilliland picked up the victory in the No. 38 Ford. This weekend promises to be hot and dry, with no rain tires needed—and Gilliland will be racing in the NASCAR Cup Series, not trucks.

Saturday’s race will be contested over 42 laps (143.22 miles) at the 3.41-mile Circuit of the Americas road course, with stage breaks scheduled after 12 and 26 laps.

Sheldon Creed Won the Pole for Saturday’s Race, But There’s a Problem

We all know Sheldon Creed has speed on a road course. He didn’t win the 2020 race at the Daytona Road Course from the 14th starting position by a fluke.

On Friday, Creed—moonlighting from the NASCAR Xfinity Series—won the pole for Saturday’s XPEL 225 at the Circuit of the Americas, edging Zane Smith for the top starting spot. Smith has taken over the No. 38 Ford from last year’s winner, Todd Gilliland.

After qualifying, Creed made it known that there was an issue with the fuel pump on his No. 20 Chevrolet, saying it would probably have to be replaced.

If that’s the case, he’ll have to start from the rear of the field, and we would be wary about backing Creed as the second favorite at +650 via DraftKings Sportsbook.

So check the race information on Saturday before you place your bet.

Kyle Busch Is Racing His Truck, So Naturally He’s the Favorite

It’s no secret that Kyle Busch is the most prolific winner in NASCAR Camping World Truck Series history, with a record 61 victories in 161 starts.

Busch won last year’s Xfinity Series race at Circuit of the Americas. However, it’s worth noting that the driver of the No. 51 Kyle Busch Motorsports Toyota has never raced a truck on a road course.

And in his only Truck Series start in the series this season, he was outrun by his driver, Chandler Smith in Las Vegas. Bottom line: with Busch favored at -140 via DraftKings, it’s hardly worth betting on him for the meager return.

We advise looking elsewhere.

Ben Rhodes Has Developed a Knack for Road Course Racing

Ben Rhodes surprised himself when he won the second race of the 2021 season on the Daytona International Speedway Road Course. Though he hasn’t won since then, he went on to claim the Truck Series championship.

Rhodes has shown excellent speed this year. He has posted runner-up finishes at Daytona and Atlanta, sandwiched around a DNF at Las Vegas after a wreck that wasn’t his fault. His road course chops have improved throughout his career.

We think Rhodes is undervalued at +1600 via DraftKings and would also bet him to finish in the top three (+300) and top five (+150). Though Rhodes qualified 13th, we also like him in a head-to-head matchup against 12th-place qualifier Chandler Smith at -120.

How to Watch XPEL 225

Event Information
Race XPEL 225 NASCAR Camping World Truck Series race
Location Circuit of the Americas, Austin, Texas
Time Saturday, March 26, 1 p.m. ET
How to Watch FS1
Image for Reid Spencer

Reid Spencer

NASCAR Betting Analyst

Betting Analyst
Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor in Drama
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
48 years
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