Best NBA Prediction Markets Today: Where to Lean on Three Toss-Up Games on Thursday Night

A new day brings new excitement in the NBA playoffs. There are three games on Thursday’s schedule, with two of the series tied 1-1, making Game 3 pivotal for both sides. With Kalshi offering prediction markets for both games and future events, we have ideas for what Kalshi contracts to buy for Thursday’s games, as well as a futures pick that you might want to make sooner rather than later.

Best NBA Prediction Markets for Thursday, April 23

Values courtesy of Kalshi. If you’re new to prediction markets, you can sign up today using the Kalshi promo code WSN and claim a $10 bonus after trading your first 100 contracts. Find more info in our detailed Kalshi review.

Knicks Beat Hawks in Game 3 (YES, 52 Cents)

This game is a good test of how much mettle the Knicks have. After blowing a lead late in Game 2, they have to go on the road with the series tied 1-1 when it looked like they would earn a comfortable 2-0 lead. Meanwhile, the Hawks no doubt have some newfound confidence and have a chance to seize momentum in the series.

While Game 2 brings a psychological test for the Knicks, they’ve been the better team in seven of the first eight quarters of this series. It won’t be an easy game, but the Knicks still have Jalen Brunson leading the way. He’s been outstanding in the series so far, and is capable of pulling the Knicks out of the fire if they get into trouble, which should allow New York to eke out a close road win in Game 3.

Use Code WSN and Get a $10 Bonus on Kalshi

Raptors Beat Cavaliers in Game 3 (YES, 42 Cents)

Most sportsbooks have a tight spread in this game, making it a toss-up between the Raptors and Cavs. At Kalshi, Toronto has good value in what amounts to a must-win game for them. Granted, the Cavs have won the first two games by double digits. Heading into the series, this looked like it would be relatively even and competitive, so we’ll lean toward the Raptors getting a home win Thursday to keep things interesting.

Keep in mind that the Cavaliers were just 9-19 against the spread as a road favorite during the regular season. That trend doesn’t bode well for a team that’s only favored by a couple of points. This will be Toronto’s first home playoff game since 2022, so look for the fans to rattle the Cavs just a little and give the Raptors the edge they need to win.

Grab a $10 Bonus at Kalshi with Code WSN

Denver vs. Minnesota Game 3 Over 229.5 Total Points (NO, 42 Cents)

There are safer numbers to choose if you don’t think Game 3 will be as high-scoring as expected. But we’re confident that neither team will match their offensive output in Game 2, meaning the total points will fall well short of the expected total at Kalshi, as well as most sportsbooks. While the teams combined for 233 points, that’s too big a number to replicate in consecutive games.

During the regular season, the Timberwolves were 14-27 O/U at home. No team struggled to hit the over more in their home games than Minnesota. That’s a sign that the team’s defensive intensity ticks up a notch at home, which is bad news for the visiting team’s offense. Meanwhile, Anthony Edwards is playing hurt, and it's affecting his shooting and overall offensive efficiency. With him being so key to Minnesota’s success, it’ll be tough for the T’Wolves to match their output from Game 2, which also points to a lower-scoring game than expected in Game 3.

Make Your Prediction at Kalshi Today

Luka Doncic Next Game Before May 7 (YES, 39 Cents)

There are a lot of eyes on Doncic, who has yet to appear in the playoffs because of an injury. The Lakers are expecting him to return at some point, and since they’ve taken a 2-0 lead over the Rockets, it appears likely that Los Angeles will be playing more than one playoff series. Thus, there are betting markets on when Doncic will play.

Kalshi has multiple dates between April 25 and May 7 for Doncic’s return to the court. Most of the contracts are banking on Doncic not returning at any point during that stretch. But Doncic is at least practicing, so there could be value in predicting his return. A return by May 7 would likely mean that Doncic sits out the Houston series but returns for the start of the conference semifinals. That feels like a reasonable timeline, so betting on Doncic to return by May 7 has some value.

Use Code WSN and Get a $10 Bonus on Kalshi