NBA Predictions Today: Where to Lean with Tight Spreads in Friday’s Playoff Games

During the early part of the NBA Conference Semifinals, six of eight games have been decided by 10 or more points. On the bright side, both of Friday’s games have a spread of fewer than five points. That gives us the hope of close games, but also the challenge of making predictions. After looking closely at the matchups, here are our best predictions for Friday’s NBA playoff games.

Best NBA Predictions for Friday, May 8

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76ers Beat Knicks in Game 23 (Yes, 52%)

It’s looking like Game 1 of this series is going to end up being the aberration. The Knicks blew out the 76ers to open the series, but Philadelphia responded by nearly pulling off the Game 2 upset. The 76ers did that without Joel Embiid on the floor, so with or without him in Game 3, they are poised to compete with the Knicks for four quarters. With the home crowd behind them, the Sixers will find a way to pull this out.

Keep in mind that while the Sixers are dealing with Embiid’s status, the Knicks have injury concerns as well. Both OG Anunoby and Josh Hart are questionable for Game 3 after picking up injuries in Game 2. If one or both are out, it’ll test New York’s depth in a meaningful way. On the other hand, the 76ers have frequently played without Embiid, making them more likely to overcome the injury uncertainty for both sides ahead of Game 3.

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Tyrese Maxey 25+ Points in Game 2 (Yes, 54%)

With or without Embiid, Maxey is going to be the key figure for Philadelphia in Game 3. He’s going to feel the pressure to perform, making him more aggressive offensively and likely to score at least 25 or more points. After all, he’s averaging just over 25 points per game in the playoffs, so if he takes the lead, Maxey should at least match that number.

Again, Game 1 of this series should be the aberration. Maxey scored just 13 points in that game, only to bounce back with 26 points in Game 2. He also scored 25+ points in the last three games of the series against the Celtics, including a pair of 30-point games. Even if Embiid plays, that won’t stop Maxey from getting enough shots up, as he’s scored at least 25 points in three of the five playoff games in which Embiid has participated.

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Spurs Beat Timberwolves by 4.5 Points in Game 3 (No, 52%)

The unexpected return of Anthony Edwards caught the Spurs off guard in Game 1, but San Antonio quickly rectified that in Game 2. The Spurs dominated in a 38-point win to even up the series. Even if we split the difference between the two games, San Antonio still looks like a safe bet to cover 4.5 points. Edwards was ineffective, scoring just 12 points, and if he’s playing hurt, he won’t be able to carry the T’Wolves the way they need against such a juggernaut.

As brilliant as Victor Wembanyama has been in the series, the San Antonio backcourt was outstanding in Game 2. The likes of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and others look like they have an edge on the Minnesota backcourt, especially with Edwards playing hurt and coming off the bench. The Spurs were a safe bet as a road favorite during the regular season and covered both road games against Portland in the first round, so we’ll lean toward San Antonio in Game 3.

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Victor Wembanyama 14+ Rebounds in Game 3 (Yes, 40%)

Not surprisingly, Wembanyama has had his way on the boards in this series. Even in a Game 1 loss, he grabbed 15 rebounds, matching that total in Game 2. In fairness, he only reached 14 rebounds once in the first round. But there’s a little more urgency in the conference semifinals, encouraging Wembanyama to be a little more aggressive.

As the 4.5-point spread indicates, Game 3 should be another close and competitive game, similar to the series opener. That should force Wembanyama to play more minutes and understand the need to grab every rebound he can. Of course, he only needed 26 minutes to grab 15 rebounds in a Game 2 blowout win, so even if Game 3 follows a similar trajectory, Wembanyama’s rebound total should still be high.

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