NBA Predictions Today: How to Bet and Best Player Props for Monday’s Playoff Games

Monday could potentially be the last day of the NBA season with multiple games. Already one conference semifinal has ended, and another series could end on Tuesday. To make the most of the occasion, we’ve looked closely at the Kalshi prediction market and come up with a spread bet and a player prop for both of Monday’s playoff games.

Best NBA Predictions for Monday, May 11

Values courtesy of Kalshi. If you’re new to prediction markets, you can sign up today using the Kalshi promo code WSN and claim a $10 bonus after trading your first 100 contracts. Find more info in our detailed Kalshi review.

Cavaliers Beat Pistons in Game 4 (No, 41%)

Conventional wisdom says the Cavaliers are going to win this game. After all, the home team has won all 10 of Cleveland’s playoff games. But that’s one trend that can’t possibly continue much longer. Keep in mind that the Pistons are 8-3 straight up and 9-2 against the spread as road underdogs, so it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see them steal a road win at some point, especially with such a tight spread.

Cleveland’s propensity for turnovers during the playoffs isn’t another reason to think the Cavs will ultimately drop a home game. Even in their series win over the Raptors, the Cavs were turning it over at an alarming rate. A hot shooting night (58%) in Game 3 was enough to overcome 15 turnovers, but that kind of shooting performance may not be something Cleveland can replicate in Game 4. With Detroit’s feisty defense, the turnovers are likely to continue, causing the Cavs to finally lose at home.

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Tobias Harris 7+ Rebounds in Game 4 (Yes, 44%)

Harris has been Detroit’s second-best player throughout the playoffs, both as a scorer and a rebounder. Granted, he was limited to just five rebounds when the Pistons lost Game 3. But he had five straight games with at least seven rebounds prior to that, helping him average 7.7 rebounds per game during the playoffs. Based on that, Game 3 should be a blip on the radar, and Harris should get back to being a reliable rebounder for Detroit in Game 4.

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Thunder Beat Lakers by 14.5 Points in Game 4 (Yes, 41%)

Let’s face it, the games in this series haven’t been close. Admittedly, we thought before the series that the Lakers would put up a fight. But Oklahoma City has won all three games by at least 18 points, including a 23-point win in Game 3 in Los Angeles. There just isn’t much evidence to suggest the Lakers are suddenly going to be competitive in Game 4, much less steal a win.

The spread for Game 4 is right around 10 points, but this seems like an opportunity to push the spread around to create a more lucrative bet. The first two games of this series had a spread of 15.5 points, which the Thunder covered. Game 3 was even more lopsided, so Oklahoma City is more than capable of dominating on the road. At this point, the Lakers have to know that the series is over and won’t have the motivation to make one last stand to prolong the inevitable.

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Isaiah Hartenstein 8+ Rebounds in Game 3 (Yes, 66%)

This certainly isn’t the most lucrative player prop, but it feels like a safe bet, so we’ll take what should be an easy win. Hartenstein’s rebounding has actually declined during the playoffs, as he’s averaging 8.6 boards per game after hauling in 9.4 rebounds per game during the regular season.

Of course, those numbers are skewed by Hartenstein having just three rebounds in Game 3 against the Suns, a game in which he suffered foul trouble. He’s had at least eight rebounds in every other playoff game, including exactly nine boards in all three games of this series. With the Thunder hoping to close out the series in Game 4, Hartenstein should be aggressive on the boards and have no trouble reaching at least eight rebounds yet again.

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