NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Edwards, Chet Overs and a Playoff Parlay

I started the Timberwolves vs. Thunder series in the green with player props, and I’ve got five more to share, along with a same-game parlay, for Game 2 on Thursday.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Julius Randle started the series on the front foot, scoring 31 and 28 points respectively. Meanwhile, Anthony Edwards was limited to 18 points and only five in the second half amid a total team collapse.

Teams that start series with 2-0 leads go on to win 92.7 percent of the time, which means that Thursday’s clash is a must-win for the visiting Wolves.

Which players will answer the call? Here are my best NBA player props and a same-game parlay for the Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 2 matchup on Thursday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, May 22

Anthony Edwards Over 24.5 Points

Ant Man only scored 18 points on 38.5 percent shooting in Game 1, cashing the under just as I predicted in my first batch of player prop picks. I believe he will bounce back to go over this line now that he’s gotten a taste of how the Thunder want to defend him and seeing the reality of the situation, which is he needs to get close to 30 points per game for his team to have a chance.

Edwards struggled against the Thunder during the regular season, going under this line in three of their four matchups. I am backing Edwards simply on his talent and the magnitude of the situation more than any sort of statistical indications.

Jaden McDaniels Under 5.5 Rebounds

McDaniels had six rebounds in only 24 minutes en route to fouling out of Game 1 in what was a fairly forgettable performance. Although he still went over this line, I’m just not convinced that he’ll be able to stay out of foul trouble, as he’s appeared undisciplined and aggressive throughout the playoffs, meaning he’s a constant risk to be in foul trouble.

McDaniels went over this line in three of his last four games but also went under in six of 11 playoff games overall. The breakneck pace in Game 1 should slow down a bit as the teams settle into the series, and McDaniels should be far away from the rim as the primary on-ball defender.

Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 Rebounds

Holmgren only came down with seven boards in Game 1, but it was apparent that the Thunder placed a great emphasis on crashing the glass in the second half. The 7-footer also did a great job of rebounding the ball in the Denver Nuggets series, going over in the final six matchups.

Holmgren split the over/under against the Wolves in two regular-season matchups, going for four and 12 boards. I have noticed a shift in his attention and determination on the glass, and I believe that he will be able to get to this line, especially if Rudy Gobert’s minutes are once again limited.

Naz Reid Over 5.5 Rebounds

Reid was an offensive disaster, scoring four points on 1-11 (9.1 percent) shooting and 0-7 from three-point territory. However, he recorded eight rebounds in 28 minutes and should see heavy time on the court even if his shot is off due to the Thunder playing Gobert off of the court.

Reid hadn’t gone over this line since Game 3 of the first round against the Los Angeles Lakers, but he went over in all four matchups with the Thunder during the regular season. For positive odds, I like both the value and probability of this bet so long as he’s able to stay on the court.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 1.5 Threes

Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder dazzled in the second half of Game 1, but let’s not forget what happened in the game as a whole. The league MVP was only 10-27 (37 percent) from the floor and 0-4 from three, in part because of how aggressive the Timberwolves were at showing help at the elbows.

Gilgeous-Alexander is not an efficient or high-volume three-point shooter, having gone under this line in five of his last seven games. The Timberwolves’ defensive structure limits his ability to get many long-range shots up, so I like him to go under this line in Game 2.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+203) at FanDuel

-Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder (-7.5)

• Julius Randle under 5.5 assists: Only had one assist to five turnovers in Game 1, and the Thunder did a great job limiting the Timberwolves’ shooters.

• Anthony Edwards 6+ rebounds: Averaged nearly nine rebounds per game in the playoffs and went over this line in nine of 11 playoff games.

• Cason Wallace 1+ three: Made a three in three straight games and just played 33 minutes in Game 1, his most of the playoffs.

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