Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction and Odds: Can Minnesota Respond?

The Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Minnesota Timberwolves for Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals on Thursday, two days after they opened the series with a 26-point victory.

The Thunder responded from a four-point halftime deficit to dominate their opponents, winning the second half 70-40. They shot 50 percent or better from the field and from three and completely shut the water off for Minnesota’s offense coming out of halftime. 

The Timberwolves looked like they could play with the Thunder, but they lost their way in the second half. Their bench contributed next to nothing, and Anthony Edwards only had five second-half points, including zero in the fourth quarter.

Here, I will break down the Timberwolves vs. Thunder betting odds and share my favorite pick for Game 2 on Thursday.

For more betting insights, check our daily NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Betting Odds for Tuesday, May 22

The Timberwolves are 46-46-1 (50 percent) against the spread, 25-22 (53.2 percent) ATS on the road, and 14-8-1 (63.6 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Thunder are 58-33-4 (63.7 percent) ATS, 32-14-2 (69.6 percent) ATS at home, and 56-32-4 (63.6 percent) ATS as a favorite.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets*.

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Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction

Minnesota Timberwolves Preview

Let me start by saying that I (correctly) picked the Thunder to cover in Game 1…But that doesn’t mean that I believe the Timberwolves can’t compete in the series, or that they didn’t impress at different points.

Clearly, the second half was an unmitigated disaster. The first half was a completely different story, one in which they held newly-crowned MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to 2/13 (15.4 percent) shooting, helped Julius Randle continue his torrid shooting, and created margins on the offensive glass.

It’s amazing what a bit of ball security and three-point shot-making will do for a team. The Wolves couldn’t hold onto the ball in the second half and finished with 17 turnovers, leading directly to 31 points, and also shot 29.4 percent from deep after finishing the regular season ranked fourth at 37.7 percent.

The Wolves only managed 10 points off turnovers, and, after dominating the offensive glass early, only had 12 second-chance points to OKC’s nine.

Minnesota used aggressive help at the elbows to limit the driving lanes for Gilgeous-Alexander. However, their personnel was athletic enough to scramble out to nearby three-point shooters, which heavily contributed to OKC’s first-half offensive struggles. The change came in the second half, when secondary playmakers were able to create penetration and get to the mid-range, opening up cracks in the rest of the defensive structure.

The Wolves and Thunder split their regular-season series 2-2, but none of the results were as lopsided as Game 1. They had previously lost by eight and seven points and won by 15 and three (in overtime).

On the bright side, the Timberwolves thrived as an underdog all of last postseason, covered nearly 64 percent of the time as an underdog during the regular and postseason, and unexpectedly lost Game 1 of their previous series before winning four straight.

The key for them will be to keep Randle on his elite offensive streak and to get production from players such as Naz Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Donte DiVincenzo, who combined to shoot 7-36 (19.4 percent) from the floor.

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Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

It’s simple—the Thunder showed why they will soon be world champions.

Whether or not that time will be this year remains to be seen, but this is a truly excellent team. Concerns of their inexperience and lack of maturity are nothing more than memories of the past, given they annihilated the Denver Nuggets in a home Game 7 and turned around to wipe the floor with the Wolves just two days later and after trailing at halftime.

The NBA referees have allowed the Thunder to be extremely physical defensively, and the result is them looking like maybe the best defense in NBA history. Their 100.7 defensive rating in the playoffs is leaps and bounds ahead of everyone else, and they currently have the highest turnover differential in league history.

While frustrating to onlookers, Gilgeous-Alexander’s downhill craftiness and elite skill allow him to control the offensive pace by either getting into the paint or earning trips to the free-throw line. OKC only attempted 21 threes in Game 1, but they made an ultra-efficient 11 (52.4 percent).

The Thunder also came down with 52.5 percent of the available rebounds in Game 1 and had a very similar defensive rebound percentage to Minnesota. That’s crucial for them, since the Wolves’ clear advantage should be, and was during the first half, on the glass.

OKC’s ability to comfortably play a nine- or 10-man rotation allows them to swarm their opponents in waves and to play with more energy down the stretch. That’s proven to be crucial to their success and could be used to help explain their second-half dominance.

In summary, the scariest part about the Thunder is that they’re just waiting to go on a run. Their opponents need to be ready to make a flurry of shots or take extreme care of the ball if they want to keep them within reach.

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Timberwolves vs. Thunder Betting Pick

• Timberwolves vs. Thunder pick: Timberwolves +7.5 (-110) at BetMGM

The Thunder were shockingly, but also predictably brilliant in the final 24 minutes of Game 1. They proved they could come from behind and had the maturity not to become overwhelmed by the emotions of the occasion.

On the other side, the Timberwolves also showed they can play with the Thunder, they just need to knock down their open looks and get back to crashing the glass. This was a 50-50 regular-season series, and nearly every one of their players can perform better than they did.

I wouldn’t bet them on the moneyline, but I like the Timberwolves to keep Game 2 close and to cover the spread.

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How to Watch Timberwolves vs. Thunder on 5/22/25

• When: Thursday, May 20 @ 7:30/8:30 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

• TV: ESPN