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Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Prediction: Nuggets Holding onto Half-Game Lead in the West

Written by: Grant Mitchell
Published March 25, 2024
10 min read

The Denver Nuggets (50-21) just took control of first place in the Western Conference and will hope to extend their lead when they take on the Memphis Grizzlies (24-47), who are already out of playoff contention.

The Grizz are in a developmental phase with young players such as GG Jackson, Vince Williams Jr., and others gaining valuable playing experience and making cases they should be part of the regular rotation next year. The team beat the San Antonio Spurs 99-97 its last time out, ending a four-game skid.

The Nuggets, who are 28-6 at home, won three straight and 14 of their last 16 games. They looked like a team reborn ever since the return from the All-Star break and have attacked every game with fervor and aggression as they clearly want to guarantee home-court advantage throughout the postseason.

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite pick for the Grizzlies vs. Nuggets matchup on Monday.

Grizzlies vs Nuggets Prediction

Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Betting Odds for Monday, March 25

The Grizzlies are 35-36 (49.3 percent) against the spread and 18-13 (58.1 percent) ATS as a road underdog. They also covered in three of their last four.

The Nuggets are 32-37-2 (46.4 percent) ATS and 16-16-1 (50 percent) ATS as a home favorite. They only covered in one of their last three but are 10-6 ATS since the All-Star break.

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Memphis Grizzlies +14.5 (-110) +800 Over 214.5 (-110)
Denver Nuggets  -14.5 (-110) -1400 Under 214.5 (-110)

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Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Prediction

Memphis Grizzlies Preview

It’s been a tough season for Memphis. A suspension, short-lived return, and injury to Ja Morant kept them without their franchise player for the majority of the campaign, while the absences of Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, and others have also made for tough sledding.

While the Grizzlies could have punted on the season, to their credit, they did not. Their record might be less than ideal, but they rank 11th in defensive efficiency for the year and are still top-10 in points allowed per game. 

The offense has not come as easy for the Grizz. Injuries, the constant shuffling of lineups, and the involvement of young players and rookies have kept Memphis around a bottom-five offense for most of the season, and they rank 29th in efficiency since the All-Star break.

Despite those struggles, GG Jackson, a 19-year-old rookie second-round pick, has been on fire recently. The emerging stud averaged 23.6 points and 5.1 rebounds on 37.3 percent three-point shooting over his last seven games for a team in desperate need of one-on-one scoring.

Desmond Bane could also be back in the lineup after he missed the last game due to a back issue. He, Jackson, and Jaren Jackson Jr. (who scored 25+ in three straight games) might not be a championship trio, but they can score the ball at a high level.      

Pay attention to how the Grizzlies do defending the interior. Jackson Jr. is a great shot-blocker but is known to get into foul trouble, and Memphis ranks 17th in points in the paint allowed                            

Denver Nuggets Preview

The Nuggets just look as if they’re showing off at times. A perfect blend of offensive intelligence and defensive integrity leaves them with arguably the fewest holes of any team in the league.

Denver is fourth in the NBA with a +8.9 point differential per 100 possessions over the last 15 games, leaps and bounds ahead of Memphis’ -9.1. They also have the third-best home net rating for the year (+9.7), while the Grizz are -5.9 on the road.

Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray get lots of praise, but the Nuggets’ recent surge has come on the back of a balanced team effort. They’ve been particularly effective at the three-point line, ranking seventh in percentage (38.1) and second in percentage allowed (33.6) over the last 15 games.

That said, the stars have also been at their best. Jokic averaged 27.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 7.4 assists on 58.4 percent shooting in March, while Murray was at 22.7 points, 8.2 assists, and 5.3 rebounds during the same time.  Porter Jr. is also having a tremendous month, averaging 19.8 points and 6.6 rebounds on 46.6 percent three-point shooting.

The Nuggets have not lost to a team with a losing record since January 10 and have not lost to a team with a losing record at home since December 8. It would be a massive shock for them not to dominate this opponent as they have so many already.

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Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Betting Pick

The Grizzlies are going to need to draw on all of the defensive strength they have while also finding a way to make their shots, specifically their threes, against a team that has been excellent at guarding the perimeter. The Nuggets, on the other hand, just need to do what they’ve been doing.

There are several key players who are questionable for this matchup, including Bane, Jokic, and others. Wait for the final injury report before making any bets on this game.

Assuming full health for both teams, we like the Nuggets to win and cover in a blowout.

How to Watch Grizzlies vs. Nuggets on 3/25/24

  • When: Monday, 7:00/9:00 p.m. MT/ET

  • Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

  • TV: NBA League Pass

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Grant Mitchell

480 Articles

Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.

In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.

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