Lakers vs Warriors Game 4 Predictions: LA Surges Ahead

• The Lakers won Game Three 127-97 to take a 2-1 lead
• The Lakers are now 8-1 coming off of a loss post-trade deadline
• The Warriors were outshot from three for the first time in the series

The Los Angeles Lakers avenged a Game Two blowout loss with a decisive victory of their own in Game Three and now prepare to host the Golden State Warriors again Monday night. 

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Lakers vs Warriors Game Four Odds

What Happened in Game Three

Game Three looked like it was going to be a series-altering win for the Warriors, who came out as the aggressor and were playing with more energy than the Lakers. Steve Kerr seemed to have won the battle of mid-series adjustments against Darvin Ham, whose defensive personnel changes—namely having Austin Reaves guard Steph Curry—found little success in the opening quarter and a bit.

After being up 11 points over four minutes into the second quarter, the Warriors were outscored by 41 until the final whistle. The Lakers’ defensive intensity completely took over the game, and they also created tons of easy looks at the basket. LeBron James and Anthony Davis also played with far more energy than they had the game prior, which is usually a great barometer for whether LA wins or loses.

As impressive as the Lakers’ win was, it was even more troubling for the Warriors. They abandoned all of the basic principles that made them successful, picked up several technical fouls, and showed little interest in being on the court. Kerr is going to have erased that bad mentality from his team if he wants to avoid the kiss of death that is going down 3-1 in a seven-game series,

Key Stats from Game Three

LeBron, Davis, and D’Angelo Russell all scored at least 21 points in the Lakers’ victory. Davis had another 13 rebounds, four blocks, and three steals, while LeBron became the first player in playoff history to accumulate at least 20 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists without turning the ball over or committing a foul. 

Curry led the Warriors in the losing effort with 23 points but was a -26 in plus/minus, only one behind Draymond Green (two points, four rebounds, two assists) for the lowest total in the game. JaMychal Green was given his second straight start in Kevon Looney’s usual starting spot but was far less effective than in Game Two, only managing two points in 11 minutes on 1-5 shooting.

The Lakers made more threes and shot a better percentage than the Warriors, turned the ball over less, won the rebounding battle, shot and made more free throws, and committed fewer fouls. It was a completely dominant effort and looked like an entirely different team than the one that played in San Francisco in Game Two. The key for them, as it always has been, is being consistent moving forward.

Lakers vs Warriors Game Four Preview

One of Ham’s adjustments for Game Three was reinserting Lonnie Walker IV into the bench rotation. Walker has not been a prominent member of the squad for months but was once an important starter and can provide shooting the Lakers have shown a glaring need for at different points in the series. It would not be a surprise to see him feature again if the Warriors hit their shots early.

On the flip side, Kerr has to consider putting Looney back into the starting five after the Lakers’ strategy of daring JaMychal Green to shoot worked in their favor. He also has to emphasize on pushing the ball in transition to find Curry and Klay Thompson before they are totally matched up since that’s where the Lakers have shown the most vulnerability on defense.

According to Land of Basketball, teams that take 3-1 leads in series are 264-13 (95.3%) all-time. The difference between that and being tied 2-2 with two of three games left in San Francisco is enormous, making Game Four essentially a must-win for both teams. Expect a cagey start with lots of defensive pressure that also results in teams pressing on offense.

How Do the Lakers Win?

The Lakers will win if they continue to show the defensive discipline required to stick with Curry and Thompson throughout the 48 minutes. They also need another excellent defensive outing from Davis, who has been pedestrian in even-numbered games in the playoffs but awesome in odds-numbered games. 

How Do the Warriors Win? 

The Warriors have found the most success when keeping the Lakers on their heels by flying in transition and also using a variety of perimeter actions to free their shooters. They cannot stop LA from getting to the rack and will not earn extra points at the free-throw line, which means they also need to make their share of threes.

Lakers vs Warriors Game Four Pick

The Lakers’ moneyline is the strongest play. They took their foot off the gas in Game Two but have shown they have more ways to win and also do not need to be at their best to win, whereas the Warriors mostly do. Davis is the key, but he should be comfortable playing in his home arena.

How to Watch Lakers vs. Warriors Game Four

• Where: crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
• When: 10:00 p.m. ET, Monday, May 8
• TV: TNT
• Streaming: YouTube TV, Hulu, Sling, etc.