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Nuggets vs. Spurs Prediction: Jokic, Wemby Go Toe-to-Toe

Written by: Grant Mitchell
Published March 15, 2024
10 min read

The Denver Nuggets (46-20) will continue their road trip when they meet the San Antonio Spurs (14-52) in the Lone Star State on Friday evening.

Nikola Jokoic and company struggled outside of their building in the first half of the season but are 4-0 since the All-Star break. They also won 10 of their last 11 games and are tied with the Oklahoma City Thunder for first place in the Western Conference, putting home-court advantage in the playoffs on the line in every game for the remainder of the season.

The Spurs have the worst record in the Association but won three of their last seven. They only played Denver once earlier in the year, a 132-120 road loss in which Jokic scored 39 points and Victor Wembanyama had 22.

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite pick for the Nuggets vs. Spurs matchup.

Nuggets vs Spurs Prediction

Nuggets vs. Spurs Betting Odds for Friday, March 15

The Nuggets are 30-34-2 (46.9%) against the spread and 10-13-1 (43.5%) ATS as a road favorite. They also covered in eight of 11 games since the All-Star break and are 6-8 ATS (42.9%) as a double-digit favorite.

The Spurs are 33-33 (50%) ATS and 12-14 (46.2%) ATS as a home underdog. They also covered in eight of their last 11 and are 15-8 (65.2%) ATS as a double-digit underdog.

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Denver Nuggets -10.5 (-115) -550 Over 221.5 (-110)
San Antonio Spurs +10.5 (-105) +400 Under 221.5 (-110)

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Nuggets vs. Spurs Prediction

Denver Nuggets Preview

The prevailing opinion is that the Nuggets are the best team in the NBA come playoff time, even if the Celtics have a better regular-season record. Their recent play makes it seem as if they’re ready for another charge through the postseason as they came out of the All-Star break swinging.

The Nuggets have the second-best point differential per 100 possessions (+8.4) and rank second in offensive efficiency and sixth in defensive efficiency since the intermission. They’re also in the top 10 in rebound rate, assist-to-turnover ratio, turnover percentage, and three-point percentage during that stretch.

Denver’s bench has been a sore spot for the majority of the campaign. However, the non-starters rank seventh in net rating since the return from their midseason break.

Although the team still has a negative scoring differential on the road for the season as a whole despite being 19-14 straight-up, they outscored opponents by an average of 13.3 points in their four post-All-Star road games.

Jokic averaged 27.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 8.2 assists to start the month, while Aaron Gordon scored 16+ points in nine of his last 12 games. Michael Porter Jr. is also shooting 48.8% from three while averaging 19.5 points, and Jamal Murry put in 24.7 points per night in March.

Keep an eye on how the Nuggets attack the interior of the Spurs defense. Assuming Wemby sticks to Jokic and could be dragged away from the basket as a result, Denver should have a lot of backdoor-cutting lanes and entry passes to Gordon available to them. 

San Antonio Spurs Preview

The Spurs have been anything but impressive this year. They’re just 26th in net rating (-7.4) and have one of the league’s worst offenses, even despite Wemby’s ridiculous rookie campaign.

On a more positive note, San Antonio is 12th in offensive efficiency and 20th in net rating (-1.8) since the break. They’re also 4.3 points per 100 possessions better at home than they are on the road over the course of the season.

The Spurs’ offensive improvements can be directly attributed to their newfound ability to shoot the basketball. Despite ranking 27th with an average three-point percentage of 35, the team ranks third in post-All-Star break three-point shooting (41.2%).

At the same time, they’re hamstrung by their inability to take care of the ball. The team ranks second in assist percentage but is also 25th in turnover percentage, which has led to them being one of the worst teams at limiting opponents’ points off turnovers.

Wemby has had a strange month thus far, dropping 31 and 27 points in two games and 13 and 10 in the other two. Regardless, he averaged 21 points, 10.9 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 4.0 blocks on 40.9% three-point shooting since Feb. 1.

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Nuggets vs. Spurs Betting Pick

The Spurs are ever-so-slightly improving and have one of the league’s most unique talents at the center of their lineup. It just so happens that the Nuggets are also improving to the level they’re playing like the best team in the conference and also have one of the most unique players ever.

Jokic’s wealth of experience will help him draw Wemby into uncomfortable positions, and he still has the brute size and strength to give him problems on the interior. The rest of the Nuggets are also too well-drilled and too hot to bet against right now.

Take the Nuggets to win and win big, despite the Spurs’ success at covering large lines.

How to Watch Nuggets vs. Spurs on 3/15/24

  • When: Friday @ 7:30/8:30 p.m. CT/ET

  • Where: Moody Center, Austin, TX

  • TV: NBA League Pass

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AUTHOR

Grant Mitchell

480 Articles

Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.

In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.

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