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The San Antonio Spurs (10-40) will look to continue their midseason improvement when they take on the Miami Heat (27-24) in South Florida on Wednesday.
The Spurs still aren’t winning many games, but they’re much more competitive than they were earlier in the year and have rallied around the outstanding play of first-overall pick, Victor Wembanyama.
The Heat won three of their last four games after suffering a seven-game losing streak, putting them back on the right track just in time for Wednesday’s tip-off.
Here, we will go over the Spurs vs. Heat betting odds and share our favorite pick for Wednesday.
The Heat are favored by 8.5 points on their home floor, where they beat the Orlando Magic 121-95 last night and are 10-16 against the spread. The Spurs did not play on Tuesday and are 12-12 ATS on the road.
|San Antonio Spurs
|Over 224.5 (-105)
|Under 224.5 (-115)
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This is the second time this season the Heat will face the Spurs on the second night of a back-to-back. They won the reverse fixture by five points back in November, and although they covered, they faced a much lesser version of the Spurs.
San Antonio’s own lost four straight games and only has three wins in its 13 games. At the same time, their net rating climbed, and they looked more coherent on both sides of the court.
The Spurs really struggle to shoot the ball (34.2 three-point percentage - last) but do a great job sharing the ball and rank first in assist percentage. They also climbed into the top half of the league in rebounding percentage and held opponents to an average of 115.6 points per 100 possessions over the last 15 games, 14th in the league.
Wembanyama looks like a much more polished player (even though he’s only 20 years old) than he did when he first stepped on an NBA court a few months ago. He averaged 23.4 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 3.1 blocks in limited minutes over his last 15 games. He also managed to put up 18 points, 111 rebounds, and seven assists when he played Miami earlier in only his 10th NBA game.
The Spurs have a history of performing worse on the road than they do at home, which is hard to do with how poor they’ve been overall. That said, they covered in three straight and seven of their last 10 road games and also have a rest advantage over their opponent.
The Heat have been all over the place this season. Whether it be injuries, uncharacteristic defensive struggles, or shooting crescendos and decrescendos, this team has taken on many different versions of itself, all before the All-Star break.
The Heat are just 23rd in point differential per 100 possessions over their last 15 games (-4.8, 2.6 points below the Spurs during that stretch. They also rank just 24th in three-point percentage during that time despite ranking 10th for the year.
Miami does a nice job adhering to the basics of strong team defense. They rank seventh in second-chance points allowed, eighth in opponents’ points in the paint, and 12th in transition defense. The team is also fifth in defensive rebound percentage and loves to quickly flow into transition looks with the speed of their guards.
While the defense is an undeniable positive, the offense has been a total mess recently. Aside from the team not shooting the ball well, they struggled to create solid halfcourt looks in their extremely slow tempo and are turning the ball over than they usually do.
Terry Rozier still has not had the desired effect and averaged 12.5 points on 36.1% shooting in eight games since he was traded by the Charlotte Hornets. Jimmy Butler led the team in scoring in six straight games (and averaged 25.5 points) but did not score more than 20 points in the second night of a back-to-back this season.
The Heat are flat-out a much better team than the Spurs are, as implied by their record. However, they look really bad on offense and are not finding the results they’d expect.
An important component of this matchup is the battle at the free-throw line. Miami is eighth in free throws per game despite its sluggish tempo, while San Antonio is 14th in free-throw attempts surrendered per game while playing at the fifth-fastest pace.
We like the Spurs to cover this line. Miami, in spite of its record and what the odds suggest, has a negative scoring differential at home and is getting a tough draw considering its lack of rest. The visitors have also found ways to cover their lines recently and have a great chance to continue that on Wednesday.
Spurs vs. Heat pick: Spurs +8.5 at BetMGM
When: Wednesday, Feb. 7, 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
TV: NBA League Pass
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Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.
In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.More info on Grant Mitchell
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