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Warriors vs. Mavericks Prediction: Dallas Making a Late Push for the Fourth Seed

Written by: Grant Mitchell
Published April 5, 2024
12 min read

The Golden State Warriors (42-34) have one of the best winning percentages in basketball over the last couple of months, but they’re about to face a Dallas Mavericks (46-30) team that is charging toward the fourth seed in the Western Conference.

The Dubs took down the Houston Rockets last night in a matchup that effectively secured them a spot in the play-in tournament despite Houston’s recent 10-game win streak. They beat the Mavericks by four points on Tuesday but trail the season series 2-1 overall.

The Mavs won 12 of their last 14 and are also fresh off a double-digit victory on Thursday after they beat the Atlanta Hawks 109-95. Although they don’t have the same record as the Denver Nuggets, Oklahoma City Thunder, or Minnesota Timberwolves, they have a real argument that they’re one of the scariest teams in a best-of-seven setting.

Here, we will review the betting odds and share our favorite picks for the Warriors vs. Mavericks matchup on Friday.

Warriors vs. Mavericks 2024 04 05

Warriors vs. Mavericks Betting Odds for Friday, April 5

The Warriors are 42-33-1 (56 percent) against the spread, the fifth-best mark in basketball. They’re also 12-7 (63.2 percent) ATS as a road underdog and 9-5-1 (64.3 percent) ATS on the second night of a back-to-back.

The Mavericks are 44-32 (57.9 percent) ATS, the second-best record in the league, and 13-12 (52 percent) ATS as a home favorite. They’re also 9-3 (75 percent) ATS with no days of rest.

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Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Golden State Warriors +5.5 (-115) +170 Over 227.5 (-115)
Dallas Mavericks -5.5 (-105) -210 Under 227.5 (-105)

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Warriors vs. Mavericks Prediction

Golden State Warriors Preview

The Warriors really turned their season around. Although it might not be reflected by their standing in the conference ladder, the Dubs have played great basketball since early February and are just unfortunate to find themselves as low in the West as they are, which speaks to the competition within the conference.

The Warriors’ +4.5 net rating over the last 15 games ranks 12th in the league during that time. Their offense ranked eighth in efficiency during that time, and they also managed to rank second in rebound rate despite playing undersized units and players.

Last year, the Dubs couldn’t win a game on the road. This year, they’re actually 1.9 points per 100 possessions better on the road than they are in their home building, so they won’t start at an outright disadvantage just because they’re on the road on Friday.

Four wins in Golden State’s current six-game win streak came in games in which they held opponents to 100 or fewer points. That will be a tall task against this Mavericks offense, but it’s impossible to argue against their level of focus on that end in recent weeks.

Despite the team’s success, Stephen Curry hasn’t been at his best recently. He averaged 22 points and 6.8 assists over his last six games, but Klay Thompson stepped up with a couple of big scoring nights (including 29 with seven threes on Thursday).

The Warriors don’t beat opponents into submission from the three-point line like they once did, but they share the ball, rebound well, and have given great effort on defense as of late. It’s tough to argue they have a championship ceiling, but they’re playing solid ball at the right time.

Dallas Mavericks Preview

Luka Doncic’s meteoric rise in the MVP race is a direct representation of the Mavericks’ ascension since the All-Star break. Their +9.5 point differential per 100 possessions over the last 15 games trails only the Boston Celtics and is a major reason why they went 12-3 straight-up during that span.

Doncic and Kyrie Irving receive the majority of the praise whenever the team performs, but their defense has also been excellent. In fact, their defense ranked fourth in efficiency during that 15-game stretch, while the offense ranked fifth.

Dallas’ moves ahead of the trade deadline gave them a near-perfect roster around their two stars. Everyone has a role they buy into and excel in, whether it be Daniel Gafford rolling to the rim and grabbing rebounds, Tim Hardaway Jr. providing instant offense off the bench, or P.J. Washington alternating between spacing and slashing and providing great help-side defense.

The success and buy-in from the role players make the job of Doncic and Irving much easier, and both are delivering. The pair averaged a combined 55.7 points, 14.1 rebounds, and 14.9 assists over their last 10 games, while the team shot 38.9 percent from three-point territory.

Mavs coach Jason Kidd said earlier this year his team was comfortable playing in close games. That’s held true throughout the year as the team has the third-best clutch net rating (+20.3) and is 21-9 when games are within five points in the final five minutes.

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Warriors vs. Mavericks Betting Pick

The Warriors will be hard-pressed to change their situation and move up two games into the eighth seed with just four games remaining. The same could be said for Dallas with the fourth seed, but there’s less of a chance they experience a mental checkout, especially since Golden State was so focused on beating Houston.

The Mavericks are playing beautiful basketball and are a more talented team than the Warriors. With Doncic and Irving playing the way they are and the supporting cast fitting in seamlessly, it’s hard to imagine them falling at home.

Credit to the Warriors for stabilizing and going on a late run, but we’ll take the Mavs to win and cover.

How to Watch Warriors vs. Mavericks, April 5

  • When: Friday, April 5 @ 6:30/7:30 p.m. CT/ET

  • Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

  • TV: NBA League Pass

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AUTHOR

Grant Mitchell

538 Articles

Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.

In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.

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