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NFL Week 1 Parlay: Best Parlay Bets for NFL Week 1

Written by: Michael Sicoli
Published September 5, 2023
10 min read

Each week this article will be dedicated to making the perfect five-leg parlay for you to make some money from. These longer bets naturally have a much smaller hit rate, so do be responsible with your betting. 

That said, there are numerous trends and statistics to take advantage of when it comes to betting. If you can find the truth for each leg, you can certainly make a bushel of cash back. You could always turn your parlay into a Round Robin bet as well, or simply take fewer legs.

DraftKings and other platforms also frequently provide profit boost bets for extended parlays like these. Sometimes they are restricted to same-game parlays, and sometimes there are flat-out boosts for NFL bets. With the start of the season upon us, there is sure to be plenty of promotions to take advantage of. Be sure to check. 

Let’s dive in! 

The Parlay

Lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.

PickOddsPayout (Increasing with each leg, top to bottom)

Jared Goff, under 260.5 passing yards

-115
BET HERE

$10 to win $18.69

Justin Jefferson anytime TD

+100
BET HERE 

$10 to win $37.39

Commanders (-6.5)

-126
BET HERE 

$10 to win $67.06

Bijan Robinson, anytime TD

+100
BET HERE 

$10 to win $134.13

Garrett Wilson, anytime TD

+130
BET HERE 

$10 to win $308.50

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Best NFL Parlay Bets Week 1

Leg #1 - Jared Goff, under 260.5 passing yards (-115)

The theme of this picks revolves around the location of the game. Goff was average at best on the road last season, averaging just 246 yards per game on the road. That was 30 fewer passing yards per game than his home appearances. 

Goff also averaged just under 250 passing yards per game in September starts last season. His weapons are limited as Amon-Ra St. Brown battles an ankle injury, and Jameson Williams is suspended for the first six weeks. 

Expect the Lions to lean on running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, with a more horizontal passing game without a reliable deep threat or tight end T.J. Hockenson bursting through the seam.

Leg #2 - Justin Jefferson, anytime TD (+100)

Only the great and eternal Travis Kelce had more targets in the red zone than Jefferson, and even he tied the Vikings WR for looks inside the 10-yard line (19). Yet Kelce sits at -160 for an anytime score, and Jefferson gets a +100 bump. 

T.J. Hockenson will factor into that red-zone number, but there’s plenty to share in a pass-heavy offense. Only seven receivers had more red-zone targets than Adam Thielen, who is now a Panther. 

Jefferson will annihilate a thin Tampa Bay secondary. It’s a good bet that he finds his way to the end zone in doing so.

Leg #3 - Commanders, -6.5 (-126)

It’s always a good bet to fade a Week 1 rookie quarterback. The Cardinals have the worst roster in the NFL, a first-year head coach and face one of the strongest defensive lines in the league. 

That’s not an easy test for any rookie. Let alone a Day 3 pick in Clayton Tune. 

The Commanders have looked great in the preseason, with Sam Howell slicing and dicing defenses. He shouldn’t have too much trouble against a pitiful Cardinals defense that couldn’t stop much last year and lost significant pieces across the field.

Leg #4 - Bijan Robinson, anytime TD (+100)

If you haven’t watched any college football for the past couple of years you may not know how much of a talented freak Robinson is. Fortunately, he’s going to be showing us for years to come on football Sundays, beginning with the Carolina Panthers. 

Robinson is going to get plenty of touches both on the ground and through the air. He faces a thin Panthers defensive line that could even be without star edge rusher Brian Burns, who is currently missing practice amid a contract dispute. The Panthers ranked 21st last season in rushing touchdowns allowed per game and facing Robinson in Week 1 isn’t going to right the ship. 

Hell, if you want to get spicy with it, Robinson scoring at least two touchdowns sits at +600. There’s your food for thought.

Leg #5 - Garrett Wilson, anytime TD (+130)

Wilson is going to have a dominant season as Aaron Rodgers’ unquestioned No. 1 target. This could be the only week you get his anytime TD line at plus odds. 

The Bills cornerbacks’ group is an utter mess, and the Jets have a good shot at winning this game outright. Wilson suffered under the hands of Zach Wilson last season, finishing the year 92nd among wide receivers in catchable target rate and sixth in unrealized air yards. The Bills were middle of the pack last season in passing touchdowns allowed, and a Jets’ passing game funneled through the Ohio State product should ensure he’s the one taking full advantage. 

That’s a lot of production left on the table, and Rodgers is more than capable of getting his star receiver the ball. The 2022 first-round pick won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors last season and will begin his campaign toward Offensive Player of the Year in Week 1. 

Garrett Wilson finished with 19 red-zone targets — 12th in the NFL — but caught just five of those looks with four scores to his name. Rodgers should comfortably correct that to a more efficient pace.

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AUTHOR

Michael Sicoli

58 Articles

Michael Sicoli has been writing about fantasy football and betting within the NFL space since 2020. He works as a writer and content creator with ClubFantasyFFL and runs an NFL defensive (IDP) newsletter with The IDP Guys. A graduate from Quinnipiac University, Michael is a long-time NFL fan with a love for soccer and the NBA.

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